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Thread: TT: Probability question

  1. #1
    TT
    Guest

    TT: Probability question

    Could someone help me on this probability table?
    I play one hand (bet: $1) with the following rules:
    6D, S17, DOA, DAS, No Re-splitting, No Surrender.

    My result
    +$4
    +$3
    +$2
    +$1.5 -> 4.53%
    +$1
    $0
    -$1
    -$2
    -$3
    -$4
    Total -> 100.00%

    Thanks in advance,
    TT

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Probability question

    The following comes from appendix 4 of Mike Shackleford's wizardofodds.com site.

    It's the closest I can come to what you're asking for.

    Don

    P.S. I notice you shopped this over at bj21.com and managed to confuse "DD'," which isn't so easy to do! But, I understood what you were looking for. :-)

    Last Update: November 17, 2002

    This appendix presents information pertinent to the standard deviation in blackjack. It should be noted my numbers come in a little higher than those using Stanford Wong's Blackjack Count Analyzer. My standard deviations come in about 0.016 higher. That said, the following table indicates the possible outcomes based on a 200 million hand simulation. Atlantic City rules (8 decks, double any first two cards, double after a split, split up to four hands, no surrender, dealer stands on soft 17) were used.

    Final outcome in blackjack
    Net win Number Probability
    -8 48 0.00000024
    -7 653 0.00000327
    -6 4654 0.00002327
    -5 22415 0.00011208
    -4 114254 0.00057127
    -3 465229 0.00232615
    -2 9248859 0.04624430
    -1 85919012 0.42959500
    0 17594957 0.08797480
    1 64221574 0.32110800
    1.5 9052402 0.04526200
    2 12616269 0.06308130
    3 525109 0.00262555
    4 169229 0.00084615
    5 33994 0.00016997
    6 9610 0.00004805
    7 1576 0.00000788
    8 156 0.00000078

    The table shows the following information:

    * Probability of net win = 43.31%

    * Probability of tie = 8.80%

    * Probability of net loss = 47.89%

    * Average loss = 1.11

    * Average win = 1.22

    * Standard deviation = 1.17

  3. #3
    TT
    Guest

    TT: Re: Probability question

    This is exactly what I was looking for.
    Many thanks!

    TT

  4. #4
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Probability question

    > This is exactly what I was looking for.
    > Many thanks!

    So, now, you don't have to shop on the other sites, right?! :-)

    Don

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