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Thread: chris: expected value

  1. #1
    chris
    Guest

    chris: expected value

    I was given a $50 bonus at an online casino. I can't cash it out until I wager 10x that amount. What is the best way to minimize my losses to best ensure I still have money at the end of the 10x wagering.

    I imagine it would be to play the minimum $1 every time to be able to handle the swings. I know proper strategy. Could betting more be more advantagous because I'd have to play less hands?

  2. #2
    Brick Waller
    Guest

    Brick Waller: Minimizing losses.

    The best way to minimize losses is do not gamble on internet blackjack. Much of it is like a blackjack slot machine that can be set at any edge the casino desires. Some will try to tell you even though the game is bogus you will still win. Take-pre-cautions.

    Brick

    > I was given a $50 bonus at an online casino.
    > I can't cash it out until I wager 10x that
    > amount. What is the best way to minimize my
    > losses to best ensure I still have money at
    > the end of the 10x wagering.

    > I imagine it would be to play the minimum $1
    > every time to be able to handle the swings.
    > I know proper strategy. Could betting more
    > be more advantagous because I'd have to play
    > less hands?

  3. #3
    ET Fan
    Guest

    ET Fan: Yes, play the minimum

    The standard deviation on one hand is about 1.12 times the amount you bet. If you play 500 hands at $1, your standard deviation is 1.12 x $1 x SqRt(500) =~ $25. If you play 50 hands at $10, your standard deviation is 1.12 x $10 x SqRt(50) =~ $79.

    However, it also depends on how much you value your time. The EV either way is the same.

    ETF

    > I was given a $50 bonus at an online casino.
    > I can't cash it out until I wager 10x that
    > amount. What is the best way to minimize my
    > losses to best ensure I still have money at
    > the end of the 10x wagering.

    > I imagine it would be to play the minimum $1
    > every time to be able to handle the swings.
    > I know proper strategy. Could betting more
    > be more advantagous because I'd have to play
    > less hands?

  4. #4
    chris
    Guest

    chris: Re: Yes, play the minimum

    thanks for the responses. is there another casino game i should play that would be better? i tried craps but it's a minimum $5 bet and also i don't exactly know how it works. i just bet on the pass line, but i lost my money.

    so far i've wagered about $100 on blackjack on 3 $1 hands at a time and am up $7. does your standard deviation change if you are playing 3 $1 hands at once as opposed to 1 $1 hand 3 times?

  5. #5
    college kid
    Guest

    college kid: Re: expected value

    Online bonus husteling works great, and you really don't ahve to worry much if you take the proper percautions. Always read all the terms and conditions and check to see the software provider and any seals like IGC or whatever. I made some good money doing it (although now the wagering requirements are even more, but still beatable). If you want to minimize risk, bet the minimum and you will have as little variance as possible. Even with $1 bets, you still have a decent chance of busting. However, those who said that your EV is the same are in error, because especially in terms of online casinos-- the greater your risk of ruin, the greater your expected value is. Any time you bet a lot on any kind of edge, your ROR goes up but because you are putting more money on the line when you have an advantage, your EV goes up as well. To put this in practice with online casinos, let's say you bet the maximum (i.e. all of your money at that casino) every hand until you meet the wagering requirements. You will bust often, and therefore have actually less total action overall for all the online casinos, so the house edge is less, and hence your EV is greater. And that one time you don't bust will more than make up for it. But of course you don't want to do this if you don't have a huge bankroll. The trick is finding the right mix between a tolerable ROR and a good EV. You know the standard deviation and how much bankroll you have, so you decide what will work best for you. Hope this helped!

    > I was given a $50 bonus at an online casino.
    > I can't cash it out until I wager 10x that
    > amount. What is the best way to minimize my
    > losses to best ensure I still have money at
    > the end of the 10x wagering.

    > I imagine it would be to play the minimum $1
    > every time to be able to handle the swings.
    > I know proper strategy. Could betting more
    > be more advantagous because I'd have to play
    > less hands?

  6. #6
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Check the terms and conditions


    Most casinos do not count Craps play towards wagering requirements since you can lower variance by betting against yourself. BJ is the best game. But, it can be very boring playing $1 a hand. You can play VP; but the variance is high. OTOH you can luck out. I have three times getting jackpots for four and five wild cards at Deuces Wild and Deuces and Joker wild. This isn't the right way to play. I was just experimenting to see if they paid. They did.

    norm

    > thanks for the responses. is there another
    > casino game i should play that would be
    > better? i tried craps but it's a minimum $5
    > bet and also i don't exactly know how it
    > works. i just bet on the pass line, but i
    > lost my money.

    > so far i've wagered about $100 on blackjack
    > on 3 $1 hands at a time and am up $7. does
    > your standard deviation change if you are
    > playing 3 $1 hands at once as opposed to 1
    > $1 hand 3 times?




  7. #7
    ET Fan
    Guest

    ET Fan: The problem with this idea is ...

    ... if you bust out, and you're confident the game is fair, you're going to want to buy in for more to complete your reqs just to get the bonus. The expectation for the game is constant (EV x $500 in this case, or around -$2.50) assuming you play just enough to meet the req. And it's insignificanr compared to the bonus.

    When I was playing online, it was rare for a casino to give the bonus just for busting out. Of course, it was also rare to bust out, since the wagering requirements were much lower.

    ETF

    > let's say you bet the
    > maximum (i.e. all of your money at that
    > casino) every hand until you meet the
    > wagering requirements. You will bust often,
    > and therefore have actually less total
    > action overall for all the online casinos,
    > so the house edge is less, and hence your EV
    > is greater. And that one time you don't bust
    > will more than make up for it.

  8. #8
    college kid
    Guest

    college kid: Re: The problem with this idea is ...

    But busting out is the exact same as getting the bonus-- when I played they let you play with the bonus-- you just couldn't cash it out until you met the requirements. So if you bust-- meaning you lose your deposit AND the bonus before you meet the requirements, then it's as if you got the bonus at that casino without fulfilling all the requirements and just hit a bad streak, which as I said, will be made up for. That one casino where you don't bust will make up for it. You don't bust out and lose the bonus and then ask the casino to give you another bonus. Did you misunderstand me or am I missing something???

    > ... if you bust out, and you're confident
    > the game is fair, you're going to want to
    > buy in for more to complete your reqs just
    > to get the bonus. The expectation for the
    > game is constant (EV x $500 in this case, or
    > around -$2.50) assuming you play just enough
    > to meet the req. And it's insignificanr
    > compared to the bonus.

    > When I was playing online, it was rare for a
    > casino to give the bonus just for busting
    > out. Of course, it was also rare to bust
    > out, since the wagering requirements were
    > much lower.

    > ETF

  9. #9
    paranoid android
    Guest

    paranoid android: Re: expected value

    > However, those who said
    > that your EV is the same are in error,
    > because especially in terms of online
    > casinos-- the greater your risk of ruin, the
    > greater your expected value is. Any time you
    > bet a lot on any kind of edge, your ROR goes
    > up but because you are putting more money on
    > the line when you have an advantage, your EV
    > goes up as well.

    But you don't have an edge. Your EV is negative.

  10. #10
    chris
    Guest

    chris: Re: The problem with this idea is ...

    that is not a problem. i used to play at this site all the time and i hadn't played in months. so they send me an email saying they deposited a $50 bonus into my account. i didn't have any other money in the account. so the deal is i have to wager it 10x ($500) before i'm allowed to cash out. so there is no risk of my own. if i lose it all i'm not depositing any more money. i merely have to wager it 10x, then i can cash out. i haven't read the terms but there might be a minimum $50 cash out. in which case, say i have $30 left after i've wagered it 10x, i'll deposit $20, and then cash out $50, thus making $30 for free.

    i'm tired of casino gambling and only play poker now

  11. #11
    college kid
    Guest

    college kid: Re: expected value

    Yes, with the game. But with the bonus and the chance of busting so much higher, having the wagering requirements met earlier would make up for that-- or would it? I don't know for sure and I'm just going stop right now before I dig myself deeper!

    > But you don't have an edge. Your EV is
    > negative.

  12. #12
    chris
    Guest

    chris: Re: expected value

    i think i do have an edge. if i finish the $500 wagering requirement with anything, then i have succeeded. i started with $0 of my own money and am simply playing with their money. it's not like other bonuses whereby you deposit a certain amount and they give you a 50% match or whatever. this is purely playing with their money.

    so after playing 500 $1 hands i think my expected value is going to be a certain amount as opposed to me going broke.

  13. #13
    ET Fan
    Guest

    ET Fan: Oh, I see

    He's getting the bonus BEFORE meeting the betting reqs. I don't think I ever got that. Not often, anyway. Placed my last bet online in late 2000. Got burned in the "Tropica scandal."

    You're right then. He could raise his EV by betting more. It should be possible to put together a kind of optimal beting theory to help decide how much to bet depending on his goals.

    ETF

    > But busting out is the exact same as getting
    > the bonus-- when I played they let you play
    > with the bonus-- you just couldn't cash it
    > out until you met the requirements. So if
    > you bust-- meaning you lose your deposit AND
    > the bonus before you meet the requirements,
    > then it's as if you got the bonus at that
    > casino without fulfilling all the
    > requirements and just hit a bad streak,
    > which as I said, will be made up for. That
    > one casino where you don't bust will make up
    > for it. You don't bust out and lose the
    > bonus and then ask the casino to give you
    > another bonus. Did you misunderstand me or
    > am I missing something???

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