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Thread: Ouchez: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

  1. #1
    Ouchez
    Guest

    Ouchez: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    I have found it to be a very pleasing option. I have read an old article by Snyder in which he had found that its value to A.P.'s was greatly under estimated.

    What say you?

    Can you hear the thunder?
    Ouchez.

  2. #2
    suicyco maniac
    Guest

    suicyco maniac: Love it!!!! *NM*


  3. #3
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: A bunch

    > I have found it to be a very pleasing
    > option. I have read an old article by Snyder
    > in which he had found that its value to
    > A.P.'s was greatly under estimated.

    > What say you?

    > Can you hear the thunder?
    > Ouchez.

    Surrender reduces the house edge by anywhere from .02% to around .10%, depending on the game. Interestingly, it is of more value in games with a greater number of decks.

    However, it is of much greater value to the card counter, because it is most useful when you have a max bet out. Everyone has had it happen - the count soars, you push out a max bet, players all around you are getting snappers and pairs of faces, while you have a face and what must be the last 6 in the shoe. The dealer, of course, is showing a ten. Surrender allows you to salvage half of your bet from a probable loss.

    Surrender is also good for the casinos, because most people do not use it properly. They either refuse to use it at all ("Surrender is for wimps - I came here to gamble!") or they surrender too often (15 vs 7, 14 vs 8, etc.).

    It is a rare win-win situation for both advantage players and casinos. :-)

  4. #4
    Ouchez
    Guest

    Ouchez: Re: A bunch

    > Interestingly, it is of more value in
    > games with a greater number of decks.

    Hmmmm, never knew that. Interesting indeed.

    Can you hear the thunder?
    Ouchez.


  5. #5
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    See Chapter 10 of BJA2 or BJA3. The value of surrender is documented in the greatest of detail, with many pages of charts and text devoted to it.

    Don

  6. #6
    suicyco maniac
    Guest

    suicyco maniac: Re: A bunch

    > Surrender is also good for the casinos,
    > because most people do not use it properly.
    > They either refuse to use it at all
    > ("Surrender is for wimps - I came here
    > to gamble!") or they surrender too
    > often (15 vs 7, 14 vs 8, etc.).

    > It is a rare win-win situation for both
    > advantage players and casinos. :-)

    This is true of almost every player option. How often do you see a ploppy following proper soft doubling or splitting BS...Insurance is a HUGE money maker for the casinos... I think the casinos would make a lot more if they loosened up their rules..I often see ploppies wanting to double on hard 12 or 7 and being denied by the double 9 10 11 only rule..this hurts the casino...In fact the only rule I can think of that a ploppy cannot screw up is RSA since it is always right to resplit aces (unless the count is in the toilet) just my 2 cents SM

  7. #7
    BJT
    Guest

    BJT: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    LS is not attractive for me... I play mostly ES...

  8. #8
    Fred Renzey
    Guest

    Fred Renzey: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    I have simmed late surrender in a typical 4.25/6.0 game with a 1-to-12 spread and found it to improve an EV of +0.75% up to +0.97%. After adjusting the bet sizes modestly upward due to:

    A) Surrender's slightly lower standard deviation.
    B) Lower risk of ruin due to to a higher EV.

    a "would be" $50 per hour expected win rate becomes $67 on a 4 hour pocket stake -- and $69 on a 25 hour trip stake.

    the fact that surrender also reduces your volatility

  9. #9
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    For 4.5/6, s17, das, with 1-12 spread vs. 4.5/6, s17, das, ls, the play-all SCOREs, taken from pp. 232-33 of BJA3 are $20.64 and $32.50, respectively, while the back-counting SCOREs, for 1-4 spreads, are $40.82 and $56.20.

    So, depending on the style of play, the percentage increases are either 57.5% or 37.7%.

    Don

  10. #10
    Fred Renzey
    Guest

    Fred Renzey: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    > So, depending on the style of play, the
    > percentage increases are either 57.5% or
    > 37.7%.

    snip> Don, doesn't SCORE consider that you're putting your entire bankroll into play, rather than your session stake -- or your trip stake?

  11. #11
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    > snip> Don, doesn't SCORE consider that
    > you're putting your entire bankroll into
    > play, rather than your session stake -- or
    > your trip stake?

    Well, SCORE is predicated on a uniform bankroll of $10,000, to keep the comparisons level, but if you take less with you on a trip, that doesn't affect the SCORE of the game you're playing -- just your trip ROR.

    Don

  12. #12
    Fred Renzey
    Guest

    Fred Renzey: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    > SCORE is predicated on a uniform
    > bankroll of $10,000, to keep the comparisons
    > level,

    snip> Here's the consideration I'd like to address. An advantage player who normally plays S17, DAS drives to a nearby casino with a 4 hour pocket stake large enough to provide a 10% ROR for that day. Upon arriving, he discovers that the house has recently added the late surrender option. The game is now S17, DAS, LS. He wishes to adjust his bets upward by "x" amount so as to encounter the same 10% ROR to his pocket stake.

    A month later, this same player flies to Foxwoods for five days with a 10% ROR, 25 hour trip stake -- unaware that Foxwoods offers late surrender. He wants to adjust his bets upward by "y" amount to maintain a 10% ROR for the trip.

    Finally, this player decides that he'll never, ever play any game that doesn't offer late surrender, but has previously played to an overall ROR of 10%. So he now increases the size of his betting units by "z" amount to maintain that 10% overall ROR to his master bankroll.

    Aren't "x", "y" and "z" progessively larger increases due to the longer time in play and the greater amount of money at risk?? If so, then isn't each expected hourly win rate different, depending upon whether you're intent on setting your ROR to your daily stake, trip stake or your entire bankroll?? Don -- Help!


  13. #13
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: What value do Ya'll place on L.S.?

    > Here's the consideration I'd like
    > to address. An advantage player who normally
    > plays S17, DAS drives to a nearby casino
    > with a 4 hour pocket stake large enough to
    > provide a 10% ROR for that day. Upon
    > arriving, he discovers that the house has
    > recently added the late surrender option.
    > The game is now S17, DAS, LS. He wishes to
    > adjust his bets upward by "x"
    > amount so as to encounter the same 10% ROR
    > to his pocket stake.

    This is easily done either by using BJRM 2002 or CVCX software. Perhaps someone will work it out for you. I can tell you, from the new BJA3 charts, that for a $10,000 bank and play-all 1-16 spread, 4.5/6, the non-surrender unit would be $8.61 (for 13.5% ROR), while the surrender unit would increase to $10.90, for the same ROR.

    > A month later, this same player flies to
    > Foxwoods for five days with a 10% ROR, 25
    > hour trip stake -- unaware that Foxwoods
    > offers late surrender. He wants to adjust
    > his bets upward by "y" amount to
    > maintain a 10% ROR for the trip.

    No sure why this is any different from the above increase of 12.66% to the unit size. Doubt that it would be very different.

    > Finally, this player decides that he'll
    > never, ever play any game that doesn't offer
    > late surrender, but has previously played to
    > an overall ROR of 10%. So he now increases
    > the size of his betting units by
    > "z" amount to maintain that 10%
    > overall ROR to his master bankroll.

    See first example. They all sound the same to me.

    > Aren't "x", "y" and
    > "z" progessively larger increases
    > due to the longer time in play and the
    > greater amount of money at risk?? If so,
    > then isn't each expected hourly win rate
    > different, depending upon whether you're
    > intent on setting your ROR to your daily
    > stake, trip stake or your entire bankroll??

    I see your point. I'll think about it for a while and try to play with the simulators to see if it makes much of a difference. My initial guess is no.

    Don

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