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Thread: ShoelessD: Length of Session

  1. #1
    ShoelessD
    Guest

    ShoelessD: Length of Session

    Hoping to post here with topics that are not usually covered. Or, if there are, to a depth not usually penetrated.

    Length of session, good or bad, has always been an indecisive problem for me. Assuming my bankroll is appropriate, should I play 30 minutes while winning the size of my bankroll and quit? Or, on the other hand, if losing, should I initiate another session after a lost session?
    We all know this is a give and take type of game. I have doubled, and tripled my session bankroll on many occasions and quit. I have also dropped 3 to 4 sessions bankroll in a day, which I can handle, but never enjoy.

    Our lifetime of play is one long session, so I really don't give to much credence to individual 1 hour sessions. My concern is that I may be wrong.

    I have played, as most of you I'm sure, for short periods of time and won, then quit. Also played all day and lost. My fear is that I am too conservative. Playing to double and triple my bankroll eliminates the chances of a real big win. I can only lose what I bring, which is within my bankroll affordablility.

    I guess what I am asking is.....am I foolish or pricatical in quiting when the cards are with me and I triple my bankroll?

  2. #2
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Re: Length of Session

    > Hoping to post here with topics that are not
    > usually covered. Or, if there are, to a
    > depth not usually penetrated.

    > Length of session, good or bad, has always
    > been an indecisive problem for me. Assuming
    > my bankroll is appropriate, should I play 30
    > minutes while winning the size of my
    > bankroll and quit? Or, on the other hand, if
    > losing, should I initiate another session
    > after a lost session?
    > We all know this is a give and take type of
    > game. I have doubled, and tripled my session
    > bankroll on many occasions and quit. I have
    > also dropped 3 to 4 sessions bankroll in a
    > day, which I can handle, but never enjoy.

    > Our lifetime of play is one long session, so
    > I really don't give to much credence to
    > individual 1 hour sessions. My concern is
    > that I may be wrong.

    > I have played, as most of you I'm sure, for
    > short periods of time and won, then quit.
    > Also played all day and lost. My fear is
    > that I am too conservative. Playing to
    > double and triple my bankroll eliminates the
    > chances of a real big win. I can only lose
    > what I bring, which is within my bankroll
    > affordablility.

    > I guess what I am asking is.....am I foolish
    > or pricatical in quiting when the cards are
    > with me and I triple my bankroll?

    You answered your own question: "Our lifetime of play is one long session, so I really don't give to much credence to individual 1 hour sessions. My concern is that I may be wrong."

    You are not wrong. You are absolutely, 100%, correct.

    We play for the long run. In the long run, you will win your expectation, minus whatever you give up in cover plays, errors, etc. Nothing more, nothing less.

    If it gives you a warm fuzzy to quit for a while after a big win and carry the money around for a while, then hey, go for it. :-)

    Just be aware that you aren't really doing anything other than making it take even longer to get to that elusive "long run."

    It is generally best to keep sessions short, not to preserve any wins, but to avoid playing when fatigued, and to avoid letting the pit get too good a look at your play.

  3. #3
    ShoelessD
    Guest

    ShoelessD: Re: Length of Session

    > We play for the long run. In the long run,
    > you will win your expectation, minus
    > whatever you give up in cover plays, errors,
    > etc. Nothing more, nothing less.

    OK. That leeds me to how you handle your winnings. Do you take a % out as profit and add the rest to your bank? Do you take it all out as profit and let the bank remain the same?

    The casino interest is more obvious when one is betting black as opposed to green. When we have our max spread out we are usually betting black. If we are winning players, and increase our bankroll accordingly, we will be betting purple eventually.....and that will draw noticable attention I'm sure. I am not there yet, but it is only a matter of time.

  4. #4
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Bankroll

    > OK. That leeds me to how you handle your
    > winnings. Do you take a % out as profit and
    > add the rest to your bank? Do you take it
    > all out as profit and let the bank remain
    > the same?

    > The casino interest is more obvious when one
    > is betting black as opposed to green. When
    > we have our max spread out we are usually
    > betting black. If we are winning players,
    > and increase our bankroll accordingly, we
    > will be betting purple eventually.....and
    > that will draw noticable attention I'm sure.
    > I am not there yet, but it is only a matter
    > of time.

    Problems of this nature I can deal with. :-)

    Seriously, there is no single correct answer. It depends on the individual, and his/her goals and tolerance for risk, not to mention heat.

    Essentially, there are three options.

    - Take some profits. Buy a new car. Better yet, buy your spouse a new car. Or a new skateboard (lower stakes players). Or invest in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds. Whatever.

    - Add the winnings to the bankroll and continue to play at the same stakes. This will have the effect of reducing risk of ruin.

    - Add to your BR and increase stakes as needed to maintain the same risk of ruin.

    As you noted, this may bring more heat. In addition, many places just don't like big action, so you become more limited as to where you can play.

    As I said, there is no one correct answer. It depends on your reasons for playing in the first place, your tolerance for risk, etc.

  5. #5
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Taking profits

    > - Take some profits. Buy a new car. Better
    > yet, buy your spouse a new car. Or a new
    > skateboard (lower stakes players). Or invest
    > in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds.
    > Whatever.

    This has been bothering me for a while. ROR formulas generally assume that you will reinvest all your winnings. So taking out any profits increases ROR. In particular, if you take out your EV or more your ROR becomes 100%.

    So as well as having a bankroll I can't spend, now I can't even spend my winnings. It makes me wonder what the point of playing is?

  6. #6
    Night Patrol
    Guest

    Night Patrol: Re: Bankroll

    > - Take some profits. Buy a new car. Better
    > yet, buy your spouse a new car. Or a new
    > skateboard (lower stakes players). Or invest
    > in a diversified portfolio of mutual funds.
    > Whatever.

    This is a very risky decision because what you are doing in essence is spending away positive variance. We need to keep positive variance in with our bankroll in order to cope with negative variance. One who choses to simply spend away money from winning sessions is very apt to go broke.

    > - Add the winnings to the bankroll and
    > continue to play at the same stakes. This
    > will have the effect of reducing risk of
    > ruin.

    Adding session winnings will only keep the risk of ruin consistent not reduce it in respect to "No." The only way to reduce risk of ruin is to add money to your bankroll not winnings.

    Sorry for disagreeing with your conclusion of options.

  7. #7
    Ed Tice
    Guest

    Ed Tice: Re: Bankroll

    Okay since I'm ranting tonight.

    If you experience positive variance, congratulations! You have won more money than expected! Does this mean that you are "due" for a loss? Well if you believe that then you should start writing down the numbers that come up in roulette and wait for the "due" number. Once you've made the money its yours and there is no mathematical principle that says you are "due for a loss" although we all talk about it here.

    Now its good to consider yourself "due for a loss". When I'm ahead I consider myself this way (keeps me from getting arrogent). When I've lost I DON'T consider myself due for a win... sorry, I've already lost, and the cards have no memory past the end of the shoe. (Well if you can track the shuffle, a little longer).

    If you have had positive variance or not, your RoR is based on your current bankroll and betting patterns. If you win a big chunk take a lot of it out, and then calculate the RoR for whats left your RoR is the same as if you had that same value as a result of being exactly at EV!

    Positive variance is free money. Negative variance is like getting robbed. All RoR formulas assume complete reinvestment. This is true. But you can recalculate your RoR given your past results at any time by only looking at your bankroll.

    I think its good to think of ourselves as "ahead of EV and due for a loss" in order to keep our discipline. But when doing the mathematics we have to keep the voodoo out.

    Ed

    > This is a very risky decision because what
    > you are doing in essence is spending away
    > positive variance. We need to keep positive
    > variance in with our bankroll in order to
    > cope with negative variance. One who choses
    > to simply spend away money from winning
    > sessions is very apt to go broke.

    > Adding session winnings will only keep the
    > risk of ruin consistent not reduce it in
    > respect to "No." The only way to
    > reduce risk of ruin is to add money to your
    > bankroll not winnings.

    > Sorry for disagreeing with your conclusion
    > of options.

  8. #8
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Re: Bankroll

    > This is a very risky decision because what
    > you are doing in essence is spending away
    > positive variance. We need to keep positive
    > variance in with our bankroll in order to
    > cope with negative variance. One who choses
    > to simply spend away money from winning
    > sessions is very apt to go broke.

    > Adding session winnings will only keep the
    > risk of ruin consistent not reduce it in
    > respect to "No." The only way to
    > reduce risk of ruin is to add money to your
    > bankroll not winnings.

    > Sorry for disagreeing with your conclusion
    > of options.

    No apology is necessary. These forums are all about the open exchange of ideas.

    Especially when you're right. :-)

    When I said to take some profits, I certainly didn't mean to take everything over your initial bankroll. More along the lines of figuring out your EV and taking, say, 10% of that. Admittedly, you're going to have to play a long time at high stakes before you'll be buying any cars this way. As another poster correctly pointed out, do this long enough and your ROR will eventually reach 100%

    Part of the problem with discussions of this nature is that they assume a "classic" bankroll. That is, an amount set aside specifically for playing blackjack. No amount will be added to it (other than winnings), and if it is lost, one will give up the game forever.

    Of course, this is rarely the case in real life. For most of us, our bankroll are replaceable, at least to some degree. In addition, constantly adjusting our bet levels in order to keep ROR constant is impractical. If my BR drops below a certain level, I will replenish it from other sources, simply because I don't want to play at lower stakes.

    All of which wreaks havoc with classic ROR calculations.

  9. #9
    Night Patrol
    Guest

    Night Patrol: Re: Bankroll

    This is not about voodoo or "due for a win" as you may think. It's about bankroll,consequencial options, and the price to pay.

    If you feel that after having a big winning session you can go spend this money because you were lucky and this will not effect your risk of ruin.... then you may, very well, and almost certainly, go broke. Your beliefs have voodoo-istic characters.

    It's a much safer bet to spend your EV rather than your postive variance. In other words you have an EV of say)$10 an hour(-after 25 hours you have somehow managed to win $1000. Spending the $1000 and talking yourself into believing this will not effect your game and risk of ruin is a very,very foolish(almost devasting)mistake. The best bet (if you must spend your bankroll) is take out the EV of $250.

    When it comes to card counting everyone has different beliefs,strategies,intentions,goals,etc.
    This probaly explains why +90% of card counters go broke or simply give up.

  10. #10
    ShoelessD
    Guest

    ShoelessD: Re: Bankroll

    > When it comes to card counting everyone has
    > different
    > beliefs,strategies,intentions,goals,etc.
    > This probaly explains why +90% of card
    > counters go broke or simply give up.

    Excellent post. We all play to win. The amount of money we win is the metric of the scoring system. If you are one of those players that can add all your winnings to your bankroll, then you are by far in the elite percentile of best players. The motivation to learn counting skills, camoflage, etc. is winning money, which requires labor. Most of us want to get paid for work. In our day jobs, we budget monies for required bills, food, furniture, family, and Entertainment. Doing the same for blackjact might be incorrect in a perfect world, but most of us are motivated by what money brings us. Taking some of the profit is the pure pleasure, and prime motivation, for playing a winning game.

  11. #11
    Ed Tice
    Guest

    Ed Tice: Re: Bankroll

    I am not going to tell otherws what to do with their money, but I will say again, that RoR is a function of your current bankroll and your playing style/conditions only. It is independent of past events. You can plug your numbers into BJRM and get an answer. Now if you are continuously playing with a 5% RoR, it is likely that it will eventually catch up to you... I don't advocate that. But if your RoR was 0.01% when you started and you take out all of your profits, your RoR is still 0.01%. Again staying at 0.01% RoR for a long time is not so smart.... that unlikely event may just come. I am not advocating this. But I am simply saying that past events and current RoR *are* independent.

    Ed

    > Excellent post. We all play to win. The
    > amount of money we win is the metric of the
    > scoring system. If you are one of those
    > players that can add all your winnings to
    > your bankroll, then you are by far in the
    > elite percentile of best players. The
    > motivation to learn counting skills,
    > camoflage, etc. is winning money, which
    > requires labor. Most of us want to get paid
    > for work. In our day jobs, we budget monies
    > for required bills, food, furniture, family,
    > and Entertainment. Doing the same for
    > blackjact might be incorrect in a perfect
    > world, but most of us are motivated by what
    > money brings us. Taking some of the profit
    > is the pure pleasure, and prime motivation,
    > for playing a winning game.

  12. #12
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: Bankroll

    > But I am simply saying that
    > past events and current RoR *are*
    > independent.

    But that doesn't mean that taking out all your profits once in a while doesn't have any effect.

    Let's say I decide on a betting strategy with a 5% ROR. Now instead of reinvesting all my winnings I am going to periodically take out all my profits and start again. Let's say I do this 10 times throughout my career. My chance of going broke at some point in my career is no longer 5%; it's more like 1 - (0.95)^10 = 40.1%. Even taking out a small portion of your EV effects your ROR.

    I think the thing to do here might be to subtract a portion of your EV for spending and do your ROR calculations based on the reduced EV. I note that BJRM has an Adjst EV field that could be used for this purpose.

  13. #13
    Ed Tice
    Guest

    Ed Tice: Re: Bankroll

    Agreed. I was never challenging this. Merely saying that taking wins does increase your RoR on the rest of your bankroll, but it doesn't matter how you got those wins, whether through EV or a lucky streak.

    I agree with your calculations. Of course also reaalize that if you double your bankroll ten times, take out all the winnings and on the eleventh time to broke, are you really 'ruined.' I hope we arent taking out our winnings to spend frivolously!

    Hopefully they are being spent to do things like reduce our mortgages, etc. So if you do go broke on the 11th or 12 or whatever time through your bankroll and want to keep playing, hopefully you'll have the financial resources to do so.

    If you are spending all of your winnings on hookers or craps or something than you are really in a negative EV game anyway! (Probably a crude example, but it gets the point.)

    In fact if you take your winnings and pay your mortgage with them this is a great play because it saves all those interest charges. You can borrow the money back if you want to. So in that regard you are taking a profit *and* growing your bankroll.

    Also if you have a large enough bankroll that you can afford to lower your bets (i.e. aren't already spreading $5-$25!) then you can reduce your RoR by lowing your bets if you get beaten down to some point, although this has drawbacks.

    I don't think any of us are disagreeing here, though. I think I was just trying to clarify that it doesn't matter where winnings come from (ground out at below EV, great positive variance.... taking the craps table while playing for 'cover'), your RoR is not a function of past events.

    Ed

    > But that doesn't mean that taking out all
    > your profits once in a while doesn't have
    > any effect.

    > Let's say I decide on a betting strategy
    > with a 5% ROR. Now instead of reinvesting
    > all my winnings I am going to periodically
    > take out all my profits and start again.
    > Let's say I do this 10 times throughout my
    > career. My chance of going broke at some
    > point in my career is no longer 5%; it's
    > more like 1 - (0.95)^10 = 40.1%. Even taking
    > out a small portion of your EV effects your
    > ROR.

    > I think the thing to do here might be to
    > subtract a portion of your EV for spending
    > and do your ROR calculations based on the
    > reduced EV. I note that BJRM has an Adjst
    > EV field that could be used for this
    > purpose.

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