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Thread: Andrew: Whats the definition of going pro?

  1. #27
    Sonny
    Guest

    Sonny: Re: what happens?

    If I may jump into the ring here for just a minute...

    > ...you lose it all and have to go back to
    > work.all im saying is if you hate your
    > job,go for it.worst case is your back to
    > square one.

    I think the DEFINITION of going pro means that you DON'T have anything else to fall back on. If you tap out, you are out of business. The reason many pro players are so conservative is that they can't just "go back to work" to replenish a lost bankroll. How much risk would YOU be willing to take if it meant losing your job FOREVER?

    > YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED
    > AS A PRO WITH A 200 UNIT BANK THAN NOT.

    Sure, if you are a card counter playing in good games you are always more likely to win than lose, but not by much.

    Pat, it sounds like your concept of going pro is what we call the Weekend Warrior approach. You play as hard as you can with more risk because you know that in a few days you will be back behind a desk earning "clean" money. If you know the money will keep rolling in from other sources, you're not REALLY playing with ANY risk at all!

    WOW! a 0% ROR!

    That's the way I play. I'll take a few vacation days off from work to hit the tables. Even if I end up down at the end of each day, I know that I am still earning vacation pay from work.

    I'm sure Norm would be happy to run the sims for a 200 until bank with a 1-4 spread at SD games. The ROR may be more than you expect.

    -Sonny-

  2. #28
    humble
    Guest

    humble: Re: i never used play all

    He's now famous.

  3. #29
    Masquerace
    Guest

    Masquerace: "pro BJ" - rating as generic "investment"?

    > Making the first step to go pro may involve
    > less capital as it is understood it is a
    > risky undertaking. But I would not call
    > someone out of the woods with a bank less
    > than 100k.

    Heated but interesting discussion for a newbie, and euro-based too!

    Just to put thing in perspective, I wonder:

    on the US market, if you'd instead *invest* your 100K$ capital in funds or in the stock market, choosing options at a comparable risk with the RoR you're playing with at BJ, how much return could you reasonably expect, on average?
    And how does the "pro BJ" expected return compare with that?

  4. #30
    Andrew
    Guest

    Andrew: Re: Happy with the discussion

    I must say that I like pat his way of thinking. That doesend mean That I cant C were the other posters are coming from. Real live experience over a number of years cant be disregarded .

    But pat is right: all I can lose is my freedome (as in not working). I spend no more then 1000 A month, And this is without comps. So I guess This number could be brought down a couple of hundreds. My bankroll would consist of about 500 units.

    I'm going for it!!!

    Agian: sorry for my english

  5. #31
    DD'
    Guest

    DD': as a straight investment

    BJ is far superior to markets, generally. It is not likely an advantage player is going to have a net loss after several years. But we are talking about a job, not an idle investment. Blackjack is a great investment, just not generally a very good job. I suggest a big enough bankroll that your annual return is only 100%.

  6. #32
    doublebonusrandy
    Guest

    doublebonusrandy: Re: "pro BJ" - rating as generic "investment"?

    any investment is a gamble and can be evaluated as such:

    1. is it a fair gamble or is there cheating?
    is the stock market fair? or is it rigged? in the event of cheating, can you recoup your losses?

    2. what is the expected return?
    it seems to be common knowledge to expect +10% per year, but one need only look at history to see that that is rediculous, the cold war period was a unique period, one in which we are no longer in, there is no reason that history should still apply, also we are moving from industrial capitalism (19-20th centuries) to something else, clearly the expected return is unknown

    3. what is the variance?
    your bankroll must be able to withstand the variance, otherwise you are likely to go bust even if there is a positive expectation
    what is the variance of the market? clearly it's all over the map, there are some one day drops that caused people to jump out of windows

  7. #33
    pat
    Guest

    pat: andrew,i hope your not using a complicated count

    > I must say that I like pat his way of
    > thinking. That doesend mean That I cant C
    > were the other posters are coming from. Real
    > live experience over a number of years cant
    > be disregarded .

    > But pat is right: all I can lose is my
    > freedome (as in not working). I spend no
    > more then 1000 A month, And this is without
    > comps. So I guess This number could be
    > brought down a couple of hundreds. My
    > bankroll would consist of about 500 units.

    > I'm going for it!!!

    > Agian: sorry for my english
    stay away from side counts.if you go pro you want a simple but powerful count.i would also say stay away from true counting but its probably a little late to switch counts now.i changed to an unbalanced count about 3 years ago.my bj play and stamina improved 10 fold.dealing with the swings wont be easy.if your not playing shoes,you should show a good profit by the 3rd or 4th month.it will probably be sooner than that but im sure by the 4th month you will be very happy.

  8. #34
    pat
    Guest

    pat: andrew,one other thing

    > I must say that I like pat his way of
    > thinking. That doesend mean That I cant C
    > were the other posters are coming from. Real
    > live experience over a number of years cant
    > be disregarded .

    > But pat is right: all I can lose is my
    > freedome (as in not working). I spend no
    > more then 1000 A month, And this is without
    > comps. So I guess This number could be
    > brought down a couple of hundreds. My
    > bankroll would consist of about 500 units.

    > I'm going for it!!!

    > Agian: sorry for my english
    i hope your playing with at least 25$ units.

  9. #35
    Andrew
    Guest

    Andrew: Re: andrew,i hope your not using a complicated cou

    Interesting you shout say this. Last week I decided not tu use the true count. I memorised the hi-lo count, with indices, that was no problem. Playing the tables, i hat no problem counting. The only thing that freaked me out: That true count. It got me to lose the count a number of times.

    Since I havend played so much, i think changing the system wouldend be that big a deal. I can start playing the rookie system, till i have the indices memorised.

    What system do u use Pat?

  10. #36
    Andrew
    Guest

    Andrew: Re: andrew,one other thing

    > i hope your playing with at least 25$ units.

    HMMMMZzzzzzz, thats a choice to make: 500 units of 10$ or 200 of 25$.

    10 is no go?

  11. #37
    sam
    Guest

    sam: Re: luck vs. variance

    Most posters responded to Pat's success as "luck" or "lucky." But DD's great success one year and less success another as "variance." "Luck" suggests something beyond our control and understanding while "variance" is in the math. A detached observer might ask: Are these terms interchangeable? "Luck" seems to have a negative suggestion to the math guys. "Pat's just been lucky" rather than "Pat's experienced variance." If the math guys acknowledge luck as a factor in Pat's success but say his downfall will most certainly come as a result of variance, then it seems they're using a double standard of judgement. Not exactly what one expects from experts.

    Sam

    Making the first step to go pro may involve
    > less capital as it is understood it is a
    > risky undertaking. But I would not call
    > someone out of the woods with a bank less
    > than 100k.

    > Another factor is a person's job &
    > income prospects. Leaving any decent paying
    > job to take such a chance would be foolish.
    > If someone works at TacoBell and runs up 20K
    > on a lucky streak, why not give going pro a
    > shot. He can get another Taco Bell job when
    > he goes bust rather easily.

    > Buying the house was pretty risky. I find it
    > amazing you were able to get financing
    > without a stable job. To be clear: you will
    > have periods of six to eight months that
    > show an overall loss. Are you going to use
    > funds from your bankroll to pay your house
    > note? When I rented I would pay my rent 12
    > months in advance. Near the end of 2002 I
    > paid house notes 12 months in advance. At
    > this very moment I am down $30,000 for the
    > year. Last year I won over 200K. The year
    > before that I barely won 20K. This is the
    > kind of variance you can look forward to,
    > even if you have to divide the figures by 5.

    > To be secure as a professional gambler you
    > really need to be financially secure enough
    > that the only thing that losses really
    > affect is the number of years you'll have to
    > play before you can retire.

  12. #38
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: No difference

    "Good luck" is nothing but positive variance. Nothing mysterious or magical about it. Likewise, "bad luck" is merely negative variance.

    Some people seem to experience more than their share of positive (or negative) variance, but in the long run the math will prevail.

  13. #39
    qboy
    Guest

    qboy: Re: "pro BJ" - rating as generic "investment"?

    As mentioned in the earlier post, as a pure investment, BJ is fantastic (high EV, 0 Beta, low variance). The problem is, it is not an investment, but a job. After all, picking up cans off the street is a great investment...infinite return, low variance...

    You could bankroll other players as an investment, but there are all sorts of problems that make that difficult too. We need an exchange for BJ Player shares!

    > any investment is a gamble and can be
    > evaluated as such:

    > 1. is it a fair gamble or is there cheating?
    > is the stock market fair? or is it rigged?
    > in the event of cheating, can you recoup
    > your losses?

    > 2. what is the expected return?
    > it seems to be common knowledge to expect
    > +10% per year, but one need only look at
    > history to see that that is rediculous, the
    > cold war period was a unique period, one in
    > which we are no longer in, there is no
    > reason that history should still apply, also
    > we are moving from industrial capitalism
    > (19-20th centuries) to something else,
    > clearly the expected return is unknown

    > 3. what is the variance?
    > your bankroll must be able to withstand the
    > variance, otherwise you are likely to go
    > bust even if there is a positive expectation
    > what is the variance of the market? clearly
    > it's all over the map, there are some one
    > day drops that caused people to jump out of
    > windows

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