> from software,so i dont think your opinion
> about dd being right holds much weight with
> me.thats not a diss-just a
> fact.
Fact!? I made more last year from casino play than from software.
> from software,so i dont think your opinion
> about dd being right holds much weight with
> me.thats not a diss-just a
> fact.
Fact!? I made more last year from casino play than from software.
> from software,so i dont think your opinion
> about dd being right holds much weight with
> me.thats not a diss-just a
> fact.imho,agreeing with dd that you need a
> 100k bank to play pro bj is really
> irresponsible.
You're digging yourself in pretty deep here.
Norm may not be an experienced high-stakes pro like DD', but he knows a thing or two about bankroll and risk management.
You, my friend, continue to be in denial of this fact: You have been successful so far because you have been lucky. You were grossly underbankrolled when you started, and most likely are still underbankrolled for your current betting level.
Furthermore, 18 months is nowhere close to the "long run."
> If you bet anything close to that big you
> will be broke with nearly 100% certainty.
> The ROR equation is based on all funds going
> back into the bank forever. If you take 75%
> of your ev and apply it to living expenses
> then it doesn't leave much to cover the
> inevitable downturns.
> You are just getting your feet wet. I hope
> you have no major negative fluxes before you
> establish yourself a legitimate bankroll.
> But if you fail to get the point then it is
> likely you will continue to live life on the
> edge.
thats crazy.if your ev is 100 an hour and you played 15 hours thats 6000 a month.if you spent 4500 on expenses, of course someone would go broke.anyway if you hate your job,its worth going for it.200 units is all you need.you would have to leave cheap for a few months until you get a good positive flux but then you could breathe a little easier when you reach 300/350 units.food is free and you could sell your comps to help out.there is also credit cards with low interest rates to help.there are all kinds of ways to get enough bank to go pro w/o having 30 or 100k as you say.
"you would have to leave cheap for a few months until you get a good positive flux but then you could breathe a little easier when you reach 300/350 units"
And what happens if you get walloped with a large negative flux instead?
The whole concept of being adequately bankrolled is to eliminate luck (as much as possible) as a factor in your success.
> You're digging yourself in pretty deep here.
> Norm may not be an experienced high-stakes
> pro like DD', but he knows a thing or two
> about bankroll and risk management.
> You, my friend, continue to be in denial of
> this fact: You have been successful so far
> because you have been lucky. You were
> grossly underbankrolled when you started,
> and most likely are still underbankrolled
> for your current betting level.
> Furthermore, 18 months is nowhere close to
> the "long run."
was after i bought my house and the furniture and appliances that went with it.after it was all done i had 7k left over.not much,but i continued to play 50 to 200 on single deck because i didnt want to go back to work.i doubled the 7k and never looked back.no way 7k would be enough on dd or 6decks but single deck is a great game.unfortunately,those games are now unplayable.the more decks the bigger risk you take with a small bank.
> "you would have to leave cheap for a
> few months until you get a good positive
> flux but then you could breathe a little
> easier when you reach 300/350 units"
> And what happens if you get walloped with a
> large negative flux instead?
> The whole concept of being adequately
> bankrolled is to eliminate luck (as much as
> possible) as a factor in your success.
you lose it all and have to go back to work.all im saying is if you hate your job,go for it.worst case is your back to square one.if everyone listened to the authors and computer geeks who say dont play to more than 5% ror,we would all be playing red chips for the rest of our lives.bottom line is this: YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED AS A PRO WITH A 200 UNIT BANK THAN NOT.its worth going for.you cant have alot of expenses.make sure the car is paid off and the rent is cheap.you wont have to pay for food.
> was after i bought my house and the
> furniture and appliances that went with
> it.after it was all done i had 7k left
> over.not much,but i continued to play 50 to
> 200 on single deck because i didnt want to
> go back to work.i doubled the 7k and never
> looked back.no way 7k would be enough on dd
> or 6decks but single deck is a great
> game.unfortunately,those games are now
> unplayable.the more decks the bigger risk
> you take with a small bank.
You have been lucky.
It is entirely possible to lose $20K or even $30K using a good level 2 count, spreading $50-$200, and playing nothing but good single deck games.
You can easily lose $7K or more in a day.
Trust me on this one.
> You have been lucky. It is entirely
> possible to lose $20K or even $30K using a
> good level 2 count, spreading $50-$200, and
> playing nothing but good single deck games.
> You can easily lose $7K or more in a day.
> Trust me on this one.
i will say this,ive been lucky that my losing streaks always came after my winning streaks.sure,if you start off with a losing streak you wont make it,but what if it doesnt.you guys always think of the negative.think of the positive.you can always get another bank.
Making the first step to go pro may involve less capital as it is understood it is a risky undertaking. But I would not call someone out of the woods with a bank less than 100k.
Another factor is a person's job & income prospects. Leaving any decent paying job to take such a chance would be foolish. If someone works at TacoBell and runs up 20K on a lucky streak, why not give going pro a shot. He can get another Taco Bell job when he goes bust rather easily.
Buying the house was pretty risky. I find it amazing you were able to get financing without a stable job. To be clear: you will have periods of six to eight months that show an overall loss. Are you going to use funds from your bankroll to pay your house note? When I rented I would pay my rent 12 months in advance. Near the end of 2002 I paid house notes 12 months in advance. At this very moment I am down $30,000 for the year. Last year I won over 200K. The year before that I barely won 20K. This is the kind of variance you can look forward to, even if you have to divide the figures by 5.
To be secure as a professional gambler you really need to be financially secure enough that the only thing that losses really affect is the number of years you'll have to play before you can retire.
> you can
> always get another bank.
That's what John Dillinger said and look what happened to him!
I admire the going for broke attitude,but you were only experiencing early positive flux. Most newbie card counters thinking they will be "Going Pro" with a 200 unit bank will go broke or simply give up after losing a good part of the bank due to negative flux. In a sense Pat,you are still a newbie to blackjack with only 1 1/2 years of experience. If I were you,I'd tighten up a bit or else you may find yourself as another victim to blackjack. Going Pro is not a simple as getting 200 units and count da' card the best you can. It takes years of patience,skill,experience and maybe just a little bit of luck
Since you're on a roll' the best advice I can give you is dont get too cocky and screw it all up. I play to minimize my risk of ruin,however some wanna be pros will often say Why? If they hang in there long enough,they'll understand someday.
However I do understand your point. Sometimes it's better to go "ALL IN" and let the chips fall where they land. I suspect several of the Pros DD' is talking about with huge banks of 100K are actually using Mr. Janek's rule for bankroll. They are adding money from other future incomes they receive and including the figure with their temporary bank. This begs the question how can they be a pro if they make money elswhere!?I shun upon this idea for the simple fact that I do not have a reliable source of steady income. My bankroll(and yours?) is cold cash,nothing else. This is why it is very important to respect risk of ruin and take SMALL steps up the ladder.
Take my advice it for what it's worth or 2 cents. It's your money,not mine.
Good Luck,
Brick
> you lose it all and have to go back to
> work.all im saying is if you hate your
> job,go for it.worst case is your back to
> square one.if everyone listened to the
> authors and computer geeks who say dont play
> to more than 5% ror,we would all be playing
> red chips for the rest of our lives.bottom
> line is this: YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED
> AS A PRO WITH A 200 UNIT BANK THAN NOT.its
> worth going for.you cant have alot of
> expenses.make sure the car is paid off and
> the rent is cheap.you wont have to pay for
> food.
About two weeks ago I suffered a 260 unit loss in a day about 8 hours total play time ( I have managed to climb more then halfway back out) this was playing good pitch games with decent pen and wonging out on negative counts. I play the Uston APC (yes I know don't hound me ) with an ace side count and all the index plays in case you are wondering. I rely on BJ for 90% of my income and while I agree that it would be easy to get stuck in red chip hell your whole life you are most likely over betting. From reading your posts it sounds like you are partly aware of this and are wiling to take that risk for the chance of building your bankroll fast this is your choice and if you are wiling to go back to a "real" job to replenish your bank then this may be a good idea for YOU however I am one of those guys who hates a job so bad I would not play to a ROR that high also with your small bank it would really pay to only play in the best games you can find and never settle for "average" games. By the way if you think a 260 unit loss was not a common thing let me tell you a month and a half ago I dropped 200 units in less then an hour and there was another 200 unit losing day betwen those two. Trust me these are not even as bad as it can get. Good luck and good cards SM
> you lose it all and have to go back to
> work.all im saying is if you hate your
> job,go for it.worst case is your back to
> square one.if everyone listened to the
> authors and computer geeks who say dont play
> to more than 5% ror,we would all be playing
> red chips for the rest of our lives.bottom
> line is this: YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED
> AS A PRO WITH A 200 UNIT BANK THAN NOT.its
> worth going for.you cant have alot of
> expenses.make sure the car is paid off and
> the rent is cheap.you wont have to pay for
> food.
YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUCCEED
> AS A PRO WITH A 200 UNIT BANK THAN NOT.its
> worth going for.you cant have alot of
> expenses.make sure the car is paid off and
> the rent is cheap.you wont have to pay for
> food.
Pat: Norm, DD, and Parker are really trying to help you here, but you are not making it easy. They are saying your bankroll is too small to succeed. They are saying that your play so far has probably been good, but luck has been on your side. Usually one listens and learns from people who know more about a particular subject than oneself.
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