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Thread: Gunpowder: Short Term/Long Term

  1. #1
    Gunpowder
    Guest

    Gunpowder: Short Term/Long Term

    I'm having a hard time understanding the whole concept of long-term/short-term. Does this mean that each session (no matter whether same day or week later) at a blackjack table is just one big session but just split up, basically each session is a continuation of the last and in the long run if you play long enough you will lose (considering u play straight basic strayegy w/ no card counting). It just confuses me because I feel like each session is independent of any other session with no memory of what happened in previous plays.

    Say that everytime I go to the casino I only play 15 hands, isn't that short term? And everyone says that in the short term a player can win but it is in the long run in which a player with always lose(unless card counting). Therefore, aren't I always playing short term by playing only 15 hands a day.

    And what exactly is long term. I mean the basic strategy was developed through simulating billions of hands, I will never play a billion hands, so doesnt the strategy change a little bit. Because a 15 hands a day player and a 350 hands a day player have different definitions of long term. Does this also mean that because one is playing 350 hands a day he will reach the "long term" (and his inevitable failure) sooner than the person playing 15 hands a day.

    Im not sure if any of this is valid, I am a little confused about this topic and would appreciate it if somebody could clear it up for me. Thank You.

  2. #2
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Short Term/Long Term


    The Law of Large Numbers says that in repeated, independent trials with the same probability p of success in each trial, the chance that the percentage of successes differs from the probability p by more than a fixed positive amount, e > 0, converges to zero as the number of trials n goes to infinity, for every positive e.

    The house edge in Roulette is 5.26%. Play an infinite number of hands on a perfect wheel and you will lose 5.26%. Play one hand and you cannot lose 5.26%. The more hands you play, the greater the probability that your results will match the odds.

    Short-term and long-term are simply convenient phrases. When we say long-term we generally mean enough hands to approximate the actual odds with a reasonable degree of certainty. Yes, all play in our lifetime is one long session. No, that doesn?t mean that there is any ?memory? kept between sessions. It?s just that the more hands we play, the higher the likelihood that we will realize results close to the theoretical edge.




  3. #3
    HOLLYWOOD
    Guest

    HOLLYWOOD: Re: Short Term/Long Term

    > I'm having a hard time understanding the
    > whole concept of long-term/short-term. Does
    > this mean that each session (no matter
    > whether same day or week later) at a
    > blackjack table is just one big session but
    > just split up, basically each session is a
    > continuation of the last and in the long run
    > if you play long enough you will lose
    > (considering u play straight basic strayegy
    > w/ no card counting). It just confuses me
    > because I feel like each session is
    > independent of any other session with no
    > memory of what happened in previous plays.

    > Say that everytime I go to the casino I only
    > play 15 hands, isn't that short term? And
    > everyone says that in the short term a
    > player can win but it is in the long run in
    > which a player with always lose(unless card
    > counting). Therefore, aren't I always
    > playing short term by playing only 15 hands
    > a day.

    > And what exactly is long term. I mean the
    > basic strategy was developed through
    > simulating billions of hands, I will never
    > play a billion hands, so doesnt the strategy
    > change a little bit. Because a 15 hands a
    > day player and a 350 hands a day player have
    > different definitions of long term. Does
    > this also mean that because one is playing
    > 350 hands a day he will reach the "long
    > term" (and his inevitable failure)
    > sooner than the person playing 15 hands a
    > day.

    > Im not sure if any of this is valid, I am a
    > little confused about this topic and would
    > appreciate it if somebody could clear it up
    > for me. Thank You.

    Let me give you my 2 cents for what it's worth in laymans terms. I am no where near as smart as Norm or any of the guys in here, but allow me to lay out my version.
    I play BJ very very frequently. And thanks to this room and mostly Don, very successfully.

    A casino does not care if you beat them 20 sessions in a row. All of that is short term stuff.
    They know that it is a mathimatical CERTAINTY that in the big picture you will return those funds to them and MORE. If you are a BS player.

    As a counter it is exactly the reverse. You can drop 20 sessions in a row, but it is also a matimatical certainty that you will get the money back and more.
    That's why I have a friend that lost $40 thousand dollars 2 weeks in a row and after the 2nd week they told his host his credit lines are cancelled and he is not allowed back.
    When the host said "what are you talking about? this guy just dropped 80k"

    They said "yeah maybe now, but in the long run he will get it back plus more. He is an advantage player and a counter and we don't want him here".

    I went through a spurt where I lost 8 sessions in a row. Naturally always getting beaten up at high counts. Which by the way is the only way you can lose.
    But for me, it's just accounting. I go home I minus it out by deducting it from my totals and go back. And since the guys in here made me the player I am, I have NETTED out shopping bags full of money over the past several years. Not to mention a fortune in comps.

    When things get bad always remember what Don taught me, you always have a partner and his name is SD.

    I'm sure you have it already, but if not, go buy 5 copies of BJ ATTACK. Leave them in places where you are running into them all the time.

    Trust me long term YOU CAN'T LOSE. I'm living proof.

    Hope it helps

    Hollywood

  4. #4
    PunkEye
    Guest

    PunkEye: Re: Short Term/Long Term

    > When things get bad always remember what Don
    > taught me, you always have a partner and his
    > name is SD.

    The same is true for the game of poker except that you won't get barred for being a winning player. But you could get yourself killed by a disgruntled loser. That's the trade-off.

  5. #5
    Masquerace
    Guest

    Masquerace: Re: Short Term/Long Term

    > Yes, all play in our lifetime is
    > one long session. No, that doesn?t mean that
    > there is any ?memory? kept between sessions.
    > It?s just that the more hands we play, the
    > higher the likelihood that we will realize
    > results close to the theoretical edge.

    This is all very correct.
    But don't also forget that no matter how much you're active and winning, the "Law of Large Numbers" DOES NOT SAY THAT LOSSES ARE "DUE" (or viceversa).

    The "chances of being a session winner", ***before*** you begin any, say, 100 hands session, are *exactly* the same everytime, absolutely regardless whether you have been winning all the last 1000 sessions OR you have been losing all the last 1000 sessions.
    You know, you may just come from an incredibly long (un)lucky streak, but *infinity* lies ahead for the Law, and infinity is much a bigger number than 100, or 1000, but also than a million, or billion, or trillion....

    That's also why, even a 2% advantage player is not "100% guaranteed" to be a winner in the end, not even if he plays 10 million hands in his lifetime.
    He might be 99.999% guaranteed ("higher likelihood"), but not 100%.

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