Longhorn: simple count method

[Longhorn]

I'm not a counter but have been playing long enough to know and understand the slight advantage a counter has over the house. That is, the counter has a slight advantage if they do everything perfectly. Frankly, this takes the fun out of it for me. However, having said that, I have a question and was hoping someone could answer for me.Is there an established system which only counts tens and aces? From personal testing it appears to me that the average hand delt in blackjack is approx. 2 1/2 cards. It also appears that the ratio of tens and aces to the entire deck is almost 2 1/2. Following this logic it then means that each hand shoud contain one ten or ace on the average. Couldn't an effective lazy man's system simply compare the number of tens and aces delt to the number of hands played each round and keep a running plus or minus count? Be gentle on me. If this is a stupid idea please pardin me. I just had to ask the experts. Thanks.

[T-Hopper]

This method works in single or double deck, but in a shoe game there is too much variation in the number of cards per hand for this count to give you much information.

[Coug It]

>Frankly, this takes the fun out of it for me.

The fun changes when you advantage play. Fun for me is when you have your max. bet out on a high count, get a pair of Aces, split them and draw a face card on each to beat the dealer's 20 TWICE. Now THAT'S fun. You should try it some time.

[Longhorn]

> This method works in single or double deck,
> but in a shoe game there is too much
> variation in the number of cards per hand
> for this count to give you much information.
Thank you for your comments. I can only tell you that my personal testing involved using 6 decks and assuming a total of 4 players and the dealer. The results showed a correlation between true count and this system. IT would indicate a positive 3 for example when the true count was a positive 5. It might show a negative 1 when the true count was negative 4. But to me the important thing was that it did indicate properly positve or negative a high percentage of the time. Even though I don't count I still like knowing when a deck is positive or negative. If i'm playing a short progressive betting scheme I might not double my last bet after losing. Or if I did and am given an eleven I might not double down etc. Anyway, I appreciate your comments and will continue to monitor this forum. It gives me fantastic insight into my favorite world which is blackjack.

[Longhorn]

> The fun changes when you advantage play. Fun
> for me is when you have your max. bet out on
> a high count, get a pair of Aces, split them
> and draw a face card on each to beat the
> dealer's 20 TWICE. Now THAT'S fun. You
> should try it some time.
Again i want to thank you for responding. I understand what you are saying but with me it was always hours of shear boardum to be rewarded with that situation and basicaly i didn't have enough "fire in the belly" to approach counting the way it needs to be approached. Meaning it takes a hugh amount of training and self discipline to benefit. See i can get the same rush you feel by just playing basic strategy and flirting with the girl next to at the same time. Just the same i try to be a student of the game and just because i don't count, doesn't mean i can't benefit from those that do. Anyway thanks again for responding

[Mr. Ed]

Longhorn, you're so polite - I'll try to do the same...

Do you know Basic Strategy? - you worry me when you say you might NOT double on 11. I would suggest you learn BS if you do not. And don't vary from Basic Strategy - unless you KNOW what the TC is, deviations will cause you more harm than good.

However, the most common deviation you'll see is to STAND on 16 v 10, when you CANNOT surrender (otherwise surrender). This occurs when the RUNNING count is >0. This is the only deviation I would recommend with your system.

Also, I'm sad to tell you, that a betting progression does not improve your long-term winnings.

Anyway, good luck! Advantage play is not for everyone!

> Thank you for your comments. I can only tell
> you that my personal testing involved using
> 6 decks and assuming a total of 4 players
> and the dealer. The results showed a
> correlation between true count and this
> system. IT would indicate a positive 3 for
> example when the true count was a positive
> 5. It might show a negative 1 when the true
> count was negative 4. But to me the
> important thing was that it did indicate
> properly positve or negative a high
> percentage of the time. Even though I don't
> count I still like knowing when a deck is
> positive or negative. If i'm playing a short
> progressive betting scheme I might not
> double my last bet after losing. Or if I did
> and am given an eleven I might not double
> down etc. Anyway, I appreciate your comments
> and will continue to monitor this forum. It
> gives me fantastic insight into my favorite
> world which is blackjack.

[Longhorn]

> Longhorn, you're so polite - I'll try to do
> the same...

> Do you know Basic Strategy? - you worry me
> when you say you might NOT double on 11. I
> would suggest you learn BS if you do not.
> And don't vary from Basic Strategy - unless
> you KNOW what the TC is, deviations will
> cause you more harm than good.

> However, the most common deviation you'll
> see is to STAND on 16 v 10, when you CANNOT
> surrender (otherwise surrender). This occurs
> when the RUNNING count is >0. This is the
> only deviation I would recommend with your
> system.

> Also, I'm sad to tell you, that a betting
> progression does not improve your long-term
> winnings.

> Anyway, good luck! Advantage play is not for
> everyone! 
Yes I know what basic strategy is but you messed my whole point. Do advantaged players always double down even when the tc is very negative? What I am saying is that it whould be neat for a non counter like me to know if the shoe has become favorable or non favorable. That s all i was saying. I'm well aware that progressive systems won't work in the long run. But they will do better in positive count situations then negative.

[Mr. Ed]

Sorry, I try to leave the table when the count falls below -1, so I don't know any indexes less than -1.

But I recall points like hit A2v5, hit A4v4, hit A6v3, which were slightly negative. Hit 11v10 happens at -5.

If you know the deck is favorable, bet more. If you know the deck is unfavorable, bet less (or leave). BS deviations will buy you very little, especially is multi-deck shoes.

> Yes I know what basic strategy is but you
> messed my whole point. Do advantaged players
> always double down even when the tc is very
> negative? What I am saying is that it whould
> be neat for a non counter like me to know if
> the shoe has become favorable or non
> favorable. That s all i was saying. I'm well
> aware that progressive systems won't work in
> the long run. But they will do better in
> positive count situations then negative.