Fox: expected value

[Fox]

hello.....
i currently use ken ustons APC 3 level count. can anyone help me calculate expected value? I'll buy statistical blackjack analyser(its only ?100 and obviously worth the money) when i am winning for the next casino i go to, but have been losing..... so i need my cash for bankroll at the moment...

If i bet
<= 2 1 unit,
3 4 units
4 8 units
5 12 units
6 16 units
7 20 units

four deck 66%,75% penetration
six deck: 66%,75%,85% penetration

does anyone know how many units per 100 hands even for one of the above decks/penetrations.
bankroll for 5% ROR?
If playing all and if backcounting?

I would be gratefull if someone can tell me.

Phil
p.s. i am going to buy the sba program even though i intend to write my own program.
i would prefer paying for it from winnings ))
what if my program has a bug...takes six months to write....or never finnish....statistically unvalidated...etc etc etc

the game is in the UK:
*Double hard 9,10,11 only
*split & resplitt unlimited inc aces.(one card to Ace)
*double after splits
*no insurance, but blackjack even money option
*dealer blackjack takes all bets, not just original
*no surrender,
*stand soft 17

[Geoff Hall]

> hello.....
> i currently use ken ustons APC 3 level
> count. can anyone help me calculate expected
> value? I'll buy statistical blackjack
> analyser(its only ?100 and obviously worth
> the money) when i am winning for the next
> casino i go to, but have been losing..... so
> i need my cash for bankroll at the moment...

> If i bet
> 3 4 units
> 4 8 units
> 5 12 units
> 6 16 units
> 7 20 units

Hi Phil

I guess that you are playing on ?5 min. tables so your max. bet will be ?100, the cost of the SBA program.
If you are concerned about using the ?100 for bankroll then it suggests that you may be overbetting according to your budget.
I'm sure someone will tell you the BR needed for a 5-100 spread with 5% ROR but I'm sure that it would need to be big enough to allow you to use ?100 on necessary expenditure, without affecting it too much.
If your budget is limited then I would suggest trying to play as much as possible in the 4-deck 75% penetration game. I can give you your expected win (from SBA) but I'm not sure how to apply it to ROR so hopefully one of the 'experts' will provide you with the necessary information.

Good luck.

Geoff Hall

[Fox]

Hiya Geoff,

> Hi Phil

> I guess that you are playing on ?5 min.
> tables so your max. bet will be ?100, the
> cost of the SBA program.
> If you are concerned about using the ?100
> for bankroll then it suggests that you may
> be overbetting according to your budget.

Not over betting, just accepting a high probability of tapping out given that i have lost part of my bankroll. better to get a normal job than to get ?1 per hour counting cards with only 5% ROR.
i think i need to bet this high to cover the loss's of ?5 through the negative counts.
> If your budget is limited then I would
> suggest trying to play as much as possible
> in the 4-deck 75% penetration game.

yes, but usually the table has seven box's open.

i have downloaded the demo version of SBA. so i can get the % occurances of each count for various decks and penetrations with a different number of players and for my count uston APC.

All i really need is the edge for each of the counts and i should be able to work it all out.

e.g.
-10 -5.1%
-1 -1%
0 -.5%
4 +1.01%

I understand that infact the edge varies slightly for a specific true count depending on how far you are through the shoe, but if i had these edges from just one penetration, say 75% for each of four deck and six deck for the uk rules i can work out the rest roughly - at least i will be in the ball park.

> I can give you your expected win (from SBA)

how about just the edges for various count levels for the four deck and six deck game, say 75% penetration.
i could work out for myself backcounting, ?5 or ?10 tables....full tables or head on etc from the demo version of SBA.

> I'm not sure how to apply it to ROR

i'm interested in what the ROR is but dealer cheating here is a bigger problem for me than ROR.

p.s. one thing i did't mention in my previous post about UK rules. you cannot splitt 4's, 5's or 10's if the program handles this.

i would be over the moon with this information. anyone?
Phil