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Thread: giuseppe: Whats my EV/BR

  1. #1
    giuseppe
    Guest

    giuseppe: Whats my EV/BR

    I haven't purchashed BJRM or SBA yet, but i will be when my new computer arrives in a few days, so anyways, can someone please tell me what my EV is and what BR i need for:
    8deck, cut off 1.5decks
    DAS, S17,Sp3, no resplit aces, single draw to aces, double on any two cards, split anytwo, and late surrender. Playing RPC, Catch 22, Fab 4, 8:1 spread, 80hands an hour, and 5% ROR. Thanks in advance

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Whats my EV/BR

    > I haven't purchashed BJRM or SBA yet, but i
    > will be when my new computer arrives in a
    > few days, so anyways, can someone please
    > tell me what my EV is and what BR i need
    > for:
    > 8deck, cut off 1.5decks
    > DAS, S17,Sp3, no resplit aces, single draw
    > to aces, double on any two cards, split
    > anytwo, and late surrender. Playing RPC,
    > Catch 22, Fab 4, 8:1 spread, 80hands an
    > hour, and 5% ROR. Thanks in advance

    I did it for hi-lo. Expect to win maybe 5-7% more with RPC. You need 1143 units of bank and will win only 1.63 units per 100 hands played, so only 1.3 units @ 80 hands/hour.

    Really tough game, if you don't spread higher or back-count.

    Don

  3. #3
    giuseppe
    Guest

    giuseppe: Re: Whats my EV/BR

    OUCH.. that bankroll is, well, hard.. considering im a broke kid, 'you need money to make money' is so true.. i was hoping for less than half that. I forgot to mention I WOULD be backcounting, going in +1TC.. Also I might be able to talk my dad into team play, hes a hi-lo player, who normally plays a 4:1 spread on SD and DD going from green to black, but for some reason is scared to bet that high on shoes.. will only play 2reds to a quarter but still is somewhat convinced about 'flow of cards' and will sometimes raise his bet even when the count is down.. like the count was -2true and he was winning so he started betting 15 instead of 10.. even though i know that thats all bullshit, should i still try to play with him? And could someone calculate a trip bankroll, and offer a suggestion, because i have sub 2k BR, I know i should probably wait until i can save up and get my bank bigger, but i donno, Im hoping that my first few sessions would be winning ones. Thanks Don, and could you please offer some words of suggestion to my dad?

  4. #4
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Whats my EV/BR

    > I forgot to mention I
    > WOULD be backcounting, going in +1TC..

    That changes everything. Play $5 units, use $2,000 bank and ROR will be LESS than 5%. But you're going to make about 6 bucks and hour, and you can make more flipping burgers.

    > but still is somewhat
    > convinced about 'flow of cards' and will
    > sometimes raise his bet even when the count
    > is down.. like the count was -2true and he
    > was winning so he started betting 15 instead
    > of 10.. even though i know that thats all
    > bullshit, should i still try to play with
    > him?

    Up to you. Pros and cons are simple. Pro: You can use his money. Con: he plays wrong.

    > And could someone calculate a trip
    > bankroll, and offer a suggestion, because i
    > have sub 2k BR, I know i should probably
    > wait until i can save up and get my bank
    > bigger, but i donno, Im hoping that my first
    > few sessions would be winning ones.

    See above.

    > Don, and could you please offer some words
    > of suggestion to my dad?

    Sure. Read some good books. Rick Blaine's new one would be a great place to start.

    Don

  5. #5
    Brett Harris
    Guest

    Brett Harris: Re: Whats my EV/BR

    I have the calculations for true count Brh-0, which is very similar to RPC. Here are a few results for optimal 1-8 spreads:

      
    A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T
    RPC -2 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2
    Brh-0 -2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2



    TC calculated by RC/(decks remaining), adjusted for balanced RPC from Brh-0.

      
    Play all hands : Equivalent Kelly Bankroll (ekb) = 695 units
    5% ROR requires unit bankroll of 1.5*ekb = 1042.5
    Unit ev/100h = ekb/N0 * 100 = 695/40289*100 = 1.725 per 100 hands.
    (Note N0 is average number of hands to double bankroll for fixed betting.)
    For $10000 bankroll you need a unit bet of $9.59 for an EV of $16.55 per 100 hands.
    (Note: 'odd' unit bets must be rounded to closest whole bet - it will effect intermediate optimal bets.)
    Max bet of 8 units at TC=+6.


    This is pretty close to Don's Hi-Lo estimate which is always encouraging.

    However, if you leave at TC=-2 things are much better:

      
    Play TC>-2: Equivalent Kelly Bankroll (ekb) = 411 units
    5% ROR requires unit bankroll of 1.5*ekb = 616.5
    Unit ev/100h = ekb/N0 * 100 = 411/23544*100 = 1.746 per 100 hands watched AND played.
    For $10000 bankroll you need a unit bet of $16.22 for an EV of $28.32 per 100 hands.
    Max bet of 8 units at TC=+9


    A backcounter only playing TC>=+2 is even better:

      
    Play TC>=-+2: Equivalent Kelly Bankroll (ekb) = 186 units
    5% ROR requires unit bankroll of 1.5*ekb =279.0
    Unit ev/100h = ekb/N0 * 100 = 186/16895*100 = 1.101 per 100 hands watched AND played.
    For $10000 bankroll you need a unit bet of $35.84 for an EV of $39.46 per 100 hands.
    Max bet of 8 units at TC=+18.


    Note the patterns - the fewer negative hands you play, the higher your unit bet can be for a given bankroll (eg $10000) and ROR(5%).
    It is the higher unit bet for a given ROR which gives the increase in dollar value EV, as distinct from unit value (ev). The other important point is that for the optimal spreads (those which minimise N0, or maximize EV for a given ROR), the fewer negative hands played, the higher the true count where the max bet is actually reached. In effect, the spread becomes much flatter, but since the unit bet increases, the average bet increases.

    The above calculator assumed a fixed bankroll of $10000. If, as I gather, you do not have much money, the calculation can be done in reverse. At the very least, a $5 betting unit, playing only TC>=+2 will give you a dollar EKB of $5 * 186 = $930, so you will have a 5% ROR with a bankroll of 1.5 * $930 = $1395 which is reasonably low. Of course, your win rate will only be $5.51 per 100 hands. So as Don says, flipping burgers is probably more profitable,
    but presumably less fun.

    Cheers,
    Brett.






  6. #6
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Good info

    Nice to see you posting here - welcome!

  7. #7
    Cacarulo
    Guest

    Cacarulo: Good to see you around :) *NM*


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