I have the calculations for true count Brh-0, which is very similar to RPC. Here are a few results for optimal 1-8 spreads:
A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 T
RPC -2 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2
Brh-0 -2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 -2
TC calculated by RC/(decks remaining), adjusted for balanced RPC from Brh-0.
Play all hands : Equivalent Kelly Bankroll (ekb) = 695 units
5% ROR requires unit bankroll of 1.5*ekb = 1042.5
Unit ev/100h = ekb/N0 * 100 = 695/40289*100 = 1.725 per 100 hands.
(Note N0 is average number of hands to double bankroll for fixed betting.)
For $10000 bankroll you need a unit bet of $9.59 for an EV of $16.55 per 100 hands.
(Note: 'odd' unit bets must be rounded to closest whole bet - it will effect intermediate optimal bets.)
Max bet of 8 units at TC=+6.
This is pretty close to Don's Hi-Lo estimate which is always encouraging.
However, if you leave at TC=-2 things are much better:
Play TC>-2: Equivalent Kelly Bankroll (ekb) = 411 units
5% ROR requires unit bankroll of 1.5*ekb = 616.5
Unit ev/100h = ekb/N0 * 100 = 411/23544*100 = 1.746 per 100 hands watched AND played.
For $10000 bankroll you need a unit bet of $16.22 for an EV of $28.32 per 100 hands.
Max bet of 8 units at TC=+9
A backcounter only playing TC>=+2 is even better:
Play TC>=-+2: Equivalent Kelly Bankroll (ekb) = 186 units
5% ROR requires unit bankroll of 1.5*ekb =279.0
Unit ev/100h = ekb/N0 * 100 = 186/16895*100 = 1.101 per 100 hands watched AND played.
For $10000 bankroll you need a unit bet of $35.84 for an EV of $39.46 per 100 hands.
Max bet of 8 units at TC=+18.
Note the patterns - the fewer negative hands you play, the higher your unit bet can be for a given bankroll (eg $10000) and ROR(5%).
It is the higher unit bet for a given ROR which gives the increase in dollar value EV, as distinct from unit value (ev). The other important point is that for the optimal spreads (those which minimise N0, or maximize EV for a given ROR), the fewer negative hands played, the higher the true count where the max bet is actually reached. In effect, the spread becomes much flatter, but since the unit bet increases, the average bet increases.
The above calculator assumed a fixed bankroll of $10000. If, as I gather, you do not have much money, the calculation can be done in reverse. At the very least, a $5 betting unit, playing only TC>=+2 will give you a dollar EKB of $5 * 186 = $930, so you will have a 5% ROR with a bankroll of 1.5 * $930 = $1395 which is reasonably low. Of course, your win rate will only be $5.51 per 100 hands. So as Don says, flipping burgers is probably more profitable,
but presumably less fun.
Cheers,
Brett.
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