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Thread: JoeBlack: Don and Parker Respond

  1. #1
    JoeBlack
    Guest

    JoeBlack: Don and Parker Respond

    Perhaps someone can explain the apparent inconsistencies in the blackjack literature.

    On the one side there are the statements that rounded indices are ok, not much to be gained by a level 2 count, not much lost by an occasion mistake in counting or basic strategy.

    On the other side are the statements like only 1 in 1000 counters can beat the casinos.

    Isn't there an apparent inconsistency here?

  2. #2
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Why counters fail

    > Perhaps someone can explain the apparent
    > inconsistencies in the blackjack literature.

    > On the one side there are the statements
    > that rounded indices are ok, not much to be
    > gained by a level 2 count, not much lost by
    > an occasion mistake in counting or basic
    > strategy.

    > On the other side are the statements like
    > only 1 in 1000 counters can beat the
    > casinos.

    > Isn't there an apparent inconsistency here?

    Not really. It is true that most counters fail. However, the reason that they fail is not because they use rounded indices, or a simple level 1 count, or make an occasional mistake.

    They fail because they are underbankrolled, they do not have the emotional fortitude to handle the wild swings, they lack the ability to completely cleanse their mind of voodoo superstitions, they lack the people skills necessary in order to count cards in a casino without getting thrown out, or some combination of these factors.

    You see, learning how to count cards is actually the easiest part.

  3. #3
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: Don and Parker Respond

    All of Parker's statements are correct. What it comes down to is a lack of discipline and patience. How many Internet, communications and energy companies started up over the last ten years expecting to take over the world - and then crashed and burned. Like Boston Chicken, they wanted too much too quickly. There is nothing wrong with the Internet, communications, energy or roast chicken. But lack of discipline and patience can negate the best of ideas.

  4. #4
    JoeBlack
    Guest

    JoeBlack: Re: Why counters fail

    Ok, so if a counter has the bankroll, the mental fortitude, has cleansed their mind of voodoo superstitions and has the people skills not to get thrown out---how many counters do you know that make say $75,000 plus a year at blackjack on a consistent basis? And of those, how many have a bankroll under $50,000?

    > Not really. It is true that most counters
    > fail. However, the reason that they fail is
    > not because they use rounded indices, or a
    > simple level 1 count, or make an occasional
    > mistake.

    > They fail because they are underbankrolled,
    > they do not have the emotional fortitude to
    > handle the wild swings, they lack the
    > ability to completely cleanse their mind of
    > voodoo superstitions, they lack the people
    > skills necessary in order to count cards in
    > a casino without getting thrown out, or some
    > combination of these factors.

    > You see, learning how to count cards is
    > actually the easiest part.

  5. #5
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Re: Why counters fail

    > Ok, so if a counter has the bankroll, the
    > mental fortitude, has cleansed their mind of
    > voodoo superstitions and has the people
    > skills not to get thrown out---how many
    > counters do you know that make say $75,000
    > plus a year at blackjack on a consistent
    > basis?

    I personally know about a dozen full time pros that make that much or more. I'm sure that there are many more - I certainly don't know everyone in the blackjack world. :-)

    > And of those, how many have a
    > bankroll under $50,000?

    None.

  6. #6
    williwong21
    Guest

    williwong21: Re: Don and Parker Respond

    I would imagine it would be a very difficult change for a family man.Under 30 or over 60 would be my guess for most of our heroes.Or a transitional time in one's life getting paid while on leave or just retired with a pension before deciding to take on another job.Probably many realize that what they gave up wasn't so bad after all.God Bless those that do.Willi.

  7. #7
    JoeBlack
    Guest

    JoeBlack: Re: Why counters fail

    Ok. There must be thousands of counters based on book sales. Lets say for the sake of argument there are 12,000 counters. 12 making good money that you know of amounts to 1/10th of 1%.

    Out of those 12, how many make that money just from counting cards as opposed to sports betting, shuffle tracking, etc?

    Out of those 12, how many started out with a small bankroll and over time through counting grew it to the greater than $50,000 amount?

    > I personally know about a dozen full time
    > pros that make that much or more. I'm sure
    > that there are many more - I certainly don't
    > know everyone in the blackjack world. :-)

    > None.

  8. #8
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Pros

    > Ok. There must be thousands of counters
    > based on book sales. Lets say for the sake
    > of argument there are 12,000 counters. 12
    > making good money that you know of amounts
    > to 1/10th of 1%.

    > Out of those 12, how many make that money
    > just from counting cards as opposed to
    > sports betting, shuffle tracking, etc?

    About half are "pure counters," although they may play some video poker. The others mostly combine counting with shuffle tracking.

    > Out of those 12, how many started out with a
    > small bankroll and over time through
    > counting grew it to the greater than $50,000
    > amount?

    Hard to say. Real pros (as opposed to to posers and wannabes) are generally reluctant to talk about themselves, and I certainly don't make it my habit to pry into people's backgrounds. I would guess that about half of them built up their bankroll through play at lower stakes, and the rest started with money obtained through other sources.

  9. #9
    Cellinin, D .V.
    Guest

    Cellinin, D .V.: (Message Deleted by Poster)


  10. #10
    John May
    Guest

    John May: Re: Why counters fail

    > Out of those 12, how many started out with a
    > small bankroll and over time through
    > counting grew it to the greater than $50,000
    > amount?

    I'd say none. It is impossible to work up a bankroll from that level with pure counting. The reason is that unlike higher levels of play, your expenses will seriously eat into your profits. The mathematics are similar to playing with a flat commission charged. Many new counters who ask me for help would not touch a game with a 10% commission charge but that is effectively what they are doing by playing on a small bankroll with no separate funds for expenses.

    You might be able to do it if you can work the comp game-but to me that is the same as saying you track of steer cards or whatever, it is another skill that must be learned and employed.

    I'd like to see more books aimed at small stakes players rather than the <1% of the population with 50k to burn and no willingness to carry on doing whatever made them the money in the first place.


  11. #11
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Why counters fail

    > To this I raise my glass and say "Good Luck and Good Cards."

    Enjoyed your post and the BJF article. Nice to see you here. Just one suggestion: Get another tag line; the above is already taken, by some hack, I believe! :-)

    Don


  12. #12
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Re: Why counters fail

    > you're very close sir but you failed to give
    > any consideration to the the surveillance
    > department. You know, those few, proud
    > ,individuals that live on sight alone! No
    > feelings, no sound, no taste. Just plain
    > sight. As I learned many years ago, when one
    > loses certain senses, they tend to rely more
    > on their existing senses. In otherwords,
    > your ACT is worthless when pressed against a
    > decent surveillance observer. The floor
    > people are the standing or as we used to
    > call them 'Sheer Threats' where surveillance
    > is the viable, unseeable threat. Security is
    > all brawn, no brains! where as surveillance
    > is all brains (used to playing the card
    > counters cat and mouse game)and no brawn.
    > Who needs brawn. My dad told me 40 years ago
    > 'Work with your head Deano, not your hands!
    > Depending on where you live, you may have a
    > decent 'Surveillance or Pit Boss' threat
    > waiting for you action. To this I raise my
    > glass and say "Good Luck and Good
    > Cards".
    > DJC

    I give plenty of "consideration" to the surveillance department, believe me! :-)

    In the post you are responding to, I wrote: "they lack the people skills necessary in order to count cards in a casino without getting thrown out." This was intended as an all-encompassing statement, referring to surveillance as well as the pit; anything that might result in a counter not being allowed to play. Perhaps the meaning was unclear, no slight to surveillance was intended. :-)

    Of course, you raise an important point: A player may be able to talk the pitboss into believing that he poses no threat, but "the eye" cannot hear him.

    Your article in Blackjack Forum and your upcoming book have created quite a stir in the advantage player community. I am pleased that you are posting here, and I'd like to welcome you to Advantageplayer.com.


  13. #13
    JoeBlack
    Guest

    JoeBlack: Re: Pros

    Any idea how many of the 1/10th of 1% used playing on a team to get in the long run faster and build up a bankroll?

    Is team play an exponential multiplier of bankroll growth?

    > About half are "pure counters,"
    > although they may play some video poker. The
    > others mostly combine counting with shuffle
    > tracking.

    > Hard to say. Real pros (as opposed to to
    > posers and wannabes) are generally reluctant
    > to talk about themselves, and I certainly
    > don't make it my habit to pry into people's
    > backgrounds. I would guess that about half
    > of them built up their bankroll through play
    > at lower stakes, and the rest started with
    > money obtained through other sources.

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