Please advice my odds if i use this strategy with My BR of $1000 and 100% deposit Bonus.
1.Bet $1 Everytime i Lose
2.Bet $3 everytime i win.
Will my cash and bonus go to the online BJ dustbins or can i clear my 100% deposit bonus using this strategy?
Your expert feed backs will be appreciated. Thanks
If you play perfectly you will win about 43% of the hands dealt whether you bet $1, $3 or $5,000,000. The card gods don't feel sorry for you and allow you to win more just because you put out bigger bets, and what happened on the last hand or the last several hands has absolutely no bearing on future hands. I've lost as many as 23 hands in a row before. I have no idea about your deposit bonus. We need a lot more information, but why would you bet more after you win when you are more likely to lose the next hand (or any hand for that matter) than you are to win?
Does it have a random card generator or does it go through a certain number of decks before it resets? If it uses random cards then there probably is no correlation between winning and losing. If it goes through a certain number of decks then you usually are getting the larger cards when you are winning thus lowering your chances of winning after that. Conversely, if you are losing the count will usually rise giving you a better chance at winning. Every senario will be different but I think your strategy would hurt you more than help you.
Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes, by then you are a mile away and have his shoes.
But a player is never going to be "favored" to win the next hand unless the count reaches astronomical proportions, and it certainly doesn't sound like the OP is counting or he wouldn't be asking such a question and/or using such a terrible betting scheme.Originally Posted by DM21
Do you trust online BJ to give you a fair game?
It is one thing to see the dealer rip off 5 card 21's in real life and crush your max bets, but when it happens online who knows who is controlling the cards.
I think it is difficult enough to deal with the psychology of the game. I don't want another element of doubt entering my mind about how the game is going.
"Nobody goes there any more, it's too crowded" - Yogi Berra
What is the 100% deposit bonus? What are you trying to accomplish, exactly? IIRC, there are weird rules with online gambling websites, particularly how much (and when) you can cash-out.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Thank you For your Prompt reply guys, I would Like to elaborate my questions again better Comprehension:
1. I'm talking about Online Blackjack so please stick to Online Blackjack Rules while Commenting( No Live casino or Live Dealer)
---we agree on this factors -- random card generator - reset every hand - counting is ruled out - no correlation between winning and losing -
2.Regarding my BR + deposit bonus its a total of $2000. and WR of 50 times D+DB = 50*2000=100,000. and i have 90 days to clear the Bonus. My intention is to clear the the Bonus.
My strategy with Perfect BS
1.Bet $1 Every time i Lose
2.Bet $3 every time i win.
Repeat same bet in case of tie.
This is not a progression but a 2 step static betting strategy.
Please don't let my post 1 count fool you. (21gunsalute :"The card gods don't feel sorry for you and allow you to win more just because you put out bigger bets")
so comments like (21gunsalute "I've lost as many as 23 hands in a row before") doesn't hold true I'll be losing $3 +$23 total bets in case i hit a 23 consecutive loses or Gain $1+$69 incase of consecutive win.
(21gunsalute "but why would you bet more after you win when you are more likely to lose the next hand (or any hand for that matter) than you are to win?" )
- Please refer my strategy again - That scenario is considered- I don't expect to win or lose next hand or any hand for that matter. I don't get emotional or lose self control and bet more or less to win or lose. I just follow mt static Bet Rule 1 & rule 2.
(21gunsalute "If you play perfectly you will win about 43% of the hands dealt whether you bet $1, $3 or $5,000,000")
---- so approximately if i win 43% of the time I'm betting Mostly $3 and Losing $1 for the Losing 57%. (I'm not saying I win 43*3 or Lose 57*1 every session, there will be sessions where i lose LLLLLLLLLLL or WWWWW or WLWLWLWL. What i'm trying to understand here, is will this strategy even out and help me to clear the bonus in +ev? is this not Preferable to Flat betting? where the odds of wining is less the 43% of the time? whats my odds here?
(DM21: I think your strategy would hurt you more than help you.)
Please explain why you think? anyone can think but I need reasons why you think this strategy will hurt me more then help me?
Those two statements seem to contradict each other. You won't be losing $1 for the "losing 57%" (which actually includes pushes), unless you're psychic and know if you're going to lose the next hand. Remember, you're wagering $1 AFTER you lose a hand, you have no idea what's going to come for the hand you bet now.
Also, you won't be "betting Mostly $3", given that you want to do that after winning and you win only approx. 43% of hands. 43% is smaller than half, so you actually will be betting mostly $1.
Unless of course you meant that you'll mostly be winning the $3 bets, which makes absolutely no sense.
Whatever happens, your disadvantage on every hand remains the same. I have no idea what site and what rules you're looking at, but with a 1% disadvantage, with a WR of 50x4000 (you seem to have used $2000, which is the bonus only, where you state that WR is deposit+bonus, which would be double what you used), you'd expect to lose $2000. If the house edge is such that you'd expect to be profitable after the playthrough requirement, you'd prefer to minimize variance, which would mean flat betting the minimum.
Last edited by MidniteToker; 06-03-2013 at 11:05 AM.
In my First Post I wrote "My BR of $1000 and 100% deposit Bonus"
In my second post i explain my BR and WR "Regarding my BR + deposit bonus its a total of $2000. and WR of 50 times D+DB = 50*2000=100,000. and i have 90 days to clear the Bonus. My intention is to clear the the Bonus"
OK I'll explain in Simple English, I have $1000 but i get to play Black Jack with $2000.
Whether I lose $1 or $3 bet or win with $1 or $3 bet I'm Contributing to the WR.
The Blackjack has (House edge is 0.5% or 0.005), while Playing with Perfect BS.
Expected loss = ((Deposit + Bonus) x Wagering requirement x House edge.
((1000+1000) x 50 x 0.005 =500
A player is expected to lose an average of ~0.5% of their wager playing blackjack, so expected loss over the $100,000 wagering is $100000x0.5% or.005= $500. This leaves $500 of the $1000 bonus as cashable profit.
That leaves me with a 0.5% advantage or .05% +ev.
If anyone Thinks Otherwise Please Let me Know
So in Conclusion to Minimize variance, Flat Betting would be Preferable.
Thank you Guys
Yeah I misread something somewhere and saw $2000 for some reason.
Blackjack has ~0.5% HE when playing perfect BS only under certain rules. Your site may differ. Considering the amount of bonus whoring that's gone on in the past and the countermeasures implemented, I'd be doubtful that your site rules result in a HE of 0.5%, leaving half of the bonus left over for you after the WR is met. It seems unlikely, but if you can confirm the rules, then it's all to the good.
While your math is ok, If you want to really understand this scenario then you must apply variance and standard deviation to your numbers. You are playing with a negative ev and can only outrun it in the short term via positive variance. Your actual results for this scenario are more a influence of variance than expectation. Define the SD boundaries and then you can make a decision on how to play. N0 is often used to estimate the long term and I believe it to be infinity in a negative ev situation.
Happy Hunting
Stealth
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
(DM21: I think your strategy would hurt you more than help you.)
Please explain why you think? anyone can think but I need reasons why you think this strategy will hurt me more then help me?
I was saying it would hurt your chances if there were a set amount of decks being played because usually as you win the count will go down so the odds of your winning will decrease as well. So if you increase you bet after a it will be at a less advantagous situation. With a random card generator no betting strategy will help because it will be just luck unless there is a quirk in the software. Some online blackjack can be played with an advantage without counting if you are observent :-)
Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes, by then you are a mile away and have his shoes.
Yeah, SD/variance/risk of ruin all need to be considered. Often you'll find that you have over 50% RoR given the playthrough requirements.
And of course all of this assumes that the site you're going to play is fair and draws randomly, not based on RTP. As far as I understand it, good luck with that.
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