See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ... 345
Results 53 to 60 of 60

Thread: Csm with off the top advantage

  1. #53


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Hmmmm..... Interesting. Why wouldn't it be worth playing even with a (near constant) 0.08% edge?

    I'd think 5 hands of this game would be the same as 1 hand at 0.4% edge (which is just about the time you'd raise your bet in a typical game/ramp)?
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  2. #54


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    Hmmmm..... Interesting. Why wouldn't it be worth playing even with a (near constant) 0.08% edge?

    I'd think 5 hands of this game would be the same as 1 hand at 0.4% edge (which is just about the time you'd raise your bet in a typical game/ramp)?
    How did you come up with the fact that 5 hands of this game would be the same as 1 hand at 0.4% edge? You are making up stuff that don't exist. You mention that it is about the same time you raise your bet in a typical game. This is not a typical game because it uses CSM. When it is time to raise your bet in CSM or bad penetrated games it is already time to shuffle. Therefore the time you raise your bet as you described is far less compare to a typical game.

  3. #55


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    How did you come up with the fact that 5 hands of this game would be the same as 1 hand at 0.4% edge? You are making up stuff that don't exist. You mention that it is about the same time you raise your bet in a typical game. This is not a typical game because it uses CSM. When it is time to raise your bet in CSM or bad penetrated games it is already time to shuffle. Therefore the time you raise your bet as you described is far less compare to a typical game.
    RollingStoned is not talking about increasing bets at the CSM game - he's asking whether it would be worth playing even if you flat bet. His argument is that the EV of 5 hands of flat betting the 0.8% advantage is equal to the EV of 1 hand (same bet size) of an 0.4% advantage.

    He then goes on to imply that the EV of 1 hand at an 0.4% advantage must be significant, because it's a size of advantage that a card counter often bothers to raise their bet for.

    None of his reasoning seems drastically incorrect to me. However, perhaps he misunderstands how much of a counter's EV comes from max and near-max bets. If he really wanted to know the profitability of playing with an 0.08% edge, he should simply multiply hands/hour by 0.0008, and multiply that by a plausible bet size.

  4. #56


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Does this game have any side bets? Does the casino offer any rebates on losses? Or will they negotiate some sort of rebate for you?

    If not, it's still worth playing if you have a huge br, perhaps we can sim it? I can't be bothered now. I play some s17 games which are .20 he, a casino would only offer a game if they were confident they would make a return on the floor space

  5. #57


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    Actually......... This (could) work --

    You have three counts, one for each round (this is unde the assumption there is a 2-round-latency before cards can be replayed).

    You have the two counts for the two rounds, as well as the count for the current round. If the previous two rounds's counts, when added together, is positive, then the counter should increase his bet, whether or not the RUNNING count is +1 or +20.

    Why?

    Player has an advantage off the top.

    Usually when we count (take this example), there is a 0.5% house edge off the top, right? Rounding each TC to change the HE by about 0.5% per 1 TC, we see that at TC=2 there is a 0.5% PLAYER edge, which is why we increase our bets at TC=2.

    However, this game is different. The player has the edge off the top. Although that edge is small, the player does not need a TC=2 in order to increase his bet and have an edge. He already has an edge.

    If on the other hand (for this example I'll assume every 1 TC is exactly and always 0.5% change in edge), well....we know the player has a 0.08% edge off the top, right? At which point is the "edge" going to be exactly 0.0% (ie: neither player nor casino has an edge)? If my math is accurate, 0.08 / 0.5 = 0.16, meaning that whenever the TC is -0.16, neither the player nor house have an edge. A running count of -1 (TC is -1/5.5 ~ -0.1818), should give around a 0% edge either way. Meaning, if the count is 0 or higher, make your bet. If the count is -1 or lower, decrease your bet. Whenever the running count increases, increase your bet. How much do you need to increase your bet? I have no idea. A pro, like you, should know.
    Better yet, just take sum of the squares of the hypotenuse and divide by Pi R Squared.

  6. #58


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by lurppis View Post
    RollingStoned is not talking about increasing bets at the CSM game - he's asking whether it would be worth playing even if you flat bet. His argument is that the EV of 5 hands of flat betting the 0.8% advantage is equal to the EV of 1 hand (same bet size) of an 0.4% advantage.

    He then goes on to imply that the EV of 1 hand at an 0.4% advantage must be significant, because it's a size of advantage that a card counter often bothers to raise their bet for.

    None of his reasoning seems drastically incorrect to me. However, perhaps he misunderstands how much of a counter's EV comes from max and near-max bets. If he really wanted to know the profitability of playing with an 0.08% edge, he should simply multiply hands/hour by 0.0008, and multiply that by a plausible bet size.
    Here's the problem: If this game does indeed have an off the top advantage, counting such a shallow pen might actually destroy the advantage as the variance is going to be exponentially larger than anything most of us have ever dealt with before. If you flat bet you're probably going to come out a little ahead in the long run. Start throwing large bets out there based on miniscule pen and unreliable data and one could lose his shirt on a game with an off the top advantage.

  7. #59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by lurppis View Post
    RollingStoned is not talking about increasing bets at the CSM game - he's asking whether it would be worth playing even if you flat bet. His argument is that the EV of 5 hands of flat betting the 0.8% advantage is equal to the EV of 1 hand (same bet size) of an 0.4% advantage.

    He then goes on to imply that the EV of 1 hand at an 0.4% advantage must be significant, because it's a size of advantage that a card counter often bothers to raise their bet for.

    None of his reasoning seems drastically incorrect to me. However, perhaps he misunderstands how much of a counter's EV comes from max and near-max bets. If he really wanted to know the profitability of playing with an 0.08% edge, he should simply multiply hands/hour by 0.0008, and multiply that by a plausible bet size.

    My question was how did he come up with the EV of 5 hands of flat betting the 0.8% advantage is equal to the EV of 1 hand (same bet size) of an 0.4% advantage? Show me the math and simulation.

  8. #60


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post

    Nobody has answered his question which is when to start a new count. Except my obvious answer of when the cards are inserted in the machine. He wanted to know about buffering on cards in and cards to be dealt. I don't know the answer to this. If he wants the deepest pen possible an understanding of this that is going on inside the CSM is necessary. Anyone here know this info?
    This has been discussed at length both here and formerly at BJinfo. Nobody seems to know the answer except possibly the person who designed the machine.

    A 1 to 2 spread sound more like a crap shoot to me.

Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ... 345

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 15
    Last Post: 09-17-2012, 10:31 AM
  2. What are the player's advantage?
    By seriousplayer in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-05-2012, 05:09 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.