Csm with off the top advantage

**Bjshufflemachin** · 05-12-2013, 11:30 AM

Hi, i recently visit a casino with player's edge off the top but csm, one2six shuffler master, (6 decks S17 DAS ENHC Full ES)
Edge is about 0,11%
Some dealers just wait 1 round before putting back the discard into the csm, some others don’t wait and put back during the round, but also I know some dealers where they wait 2 decks even more before putting it back. I’m pretty sure it can be profitable, espescially with good rules ? but I don’t know exactly how to count it, when to reset RC etc …
Is there any counting system better than other for counting a CSM ? or Does it exist some different strategy for CSM ?

**21forme** · 05-12-2013, 01:18 PM

I played a CSM game once where a cashback promo put it in the +EV category (1.5%). Dealer typically put the cards back in after one deck. Every now and then, the TC hit +1 and I'd make a few index plays, but flat bet (table max) the whole time.

For a 0.1% edge, you're looking at a high variance with very little potential return.

**TheHypnoToad** · 05-13-2013, 08:16 AM

Originally Posted by 21forme

For a 0.1% edge, you're looking at a high variance with very little potential return.

If a dealer is waiting 2 decks before putting them back in, then that might be playable with a 0.1% edge off the top (I've not done the sim). Even if not especially profitable, that's an excellent learning environment (depending how experienced the OP is) as at least you're winning on small bets...

To the OP:

1) You need to run a sim on Casino Verite (or ask someone to do it for you) to see how much the game is worth.
2) There are no counting systems that are specifically better for a CSM but some are stronger than others - with a marginal game (which this probably is) you might find that a stronger system could have a big impact.

Good luck!

**Shark** · 05-13-2013, 12:39 PM

I ran a simulation for a game with a constant penetration of 2.0/6 and the rules were 6DK ENHC, DOA, DAS, Split twice to three hands and NRSA and early surrender. A counter using HiLo and betting 2*1 unit at negative counts and TC=1 2*5 units, TC=2 2*15 units and TC=3 or more 2*20 units. EV=+0.76%. The sim was done using SBA .

You would need to reset your count when dealer reinsert the cards to csm. Some AP said that it takes a round until the cards that were reinserted are available for play again. One problem that you will have is that some dealers reinsert the cards more often and you wouldn't get a penetration of two decks consistently.

**PinkChip** · 05-13-2013, 01:40 PM

I thought that in Europe, where CSMs are prevalent, it is impossible to get surrender, but should have explicitly asked for when I played CSMs twice. Especially when it comes to full Early Surrender and not just verstus Dealer Ten (ES10). However, the ENHC rule also costs, and some European casinos do not even offer DOA but only Double on Hard 9,10,11.

Anyway I don't trust these machines. They are opaque, you don't even see how many decks are in play or if the decks are even stacked (They didn't spread out all 312 cards before the game so you couldn't check it). In my first CSM session, the dealer seemed to have a Ten as upcard about 70 rather than 30 percent, but I could not record and prove it. I flat bet all the time and played perfect Basic Strategy, lost all 10 units (buy-in) during 1 hour in about 100 games. That makes an EV of -10 percent as opposed to -0.5 percent as expected. Pure bad luck?

The second session, in another country, also versus one-2-six CSM, was the same disaster. Buy-in 10 units, lost all after about 100 hands. Dealer had the expected 5 naturals during these 100 games, I had only one single natural and this was when the dealer had one of his, so I never got any blackjack bonus. Again bad luck?

Just some experiences.

**D.A.** · 05-13-2013, 01:44 PM

Originally Posted by PinkChip

I thought that in Europe, where CSMs are prevalent, it is impossible to get surrender, but should have explicitly asked for when I played CSMs twice. Especially when it comes to full Early Surrender and not just verstus Dealer Ten (ES10). However, the ENHC rule also costs, and some European casinos do not even offer DOA but only Double on Hard 9,10,11.

Anyway I don't trust these machines. They are opaque, you don't even see how many decks are in play or if the decks are even stacked (They didn't spread out all 312 cards before the game so you could check it). In the first session, the dealer seemed to have a Ten as upcard about 70 rather than 30 percent, but I could not record and prove it. I flat bet all the time and played perfect Basic Strategy, lost all 10 units (buy-in) during 1 hour in about 100 games. That makes an EV of -10 percent as opposed to -0.5 percent as expected. Pure bad luck?

The second session, in another country, also versus one-2-six CSM, was the same disaster. Buy-in 10 units, lost all after about 100 hands. Dealer had the expected 5 naturals during these 100 games, I had only one single natural and this was when the dealer had one of his, so I never got any blackjack bonus. Again bad luck?

Just some experiences.

I understand the frustration and the need to make sure games are on the square, but your examples are WAY too small of a sample size.

**shadroch** · 05-13-2013, 02:18 PM

I would think any small advantage one could get for a few hands on occasion would be offset by the more hands you get in in an hour.

**Bjshufflemachin** · 05-13-2013, 04:20 PM

Thanks you for yours answer...

I would like to know when to reser my RC, i m not sure it's right after the dealers put the cards back (the cards don t seem to be instantely reshuffle ...

Also if someone know if any other system is better than Hilo ... ?

Thanks you guys!

**Shark** · 05-14-2013, 01:21 AM

Originally Posted by PinkChip

I thought that in Europe, where CSMs are prevalent, it is impossible to get surrender, but should have explicitly asked for when I played CSMs twice. Especially when it comes to full Early Surrender and not just verstus Dealer Ten (ES10). However, the ENHC rule also costs, and some European casinos do not even offer DOA but only Double on Hard 9,10,11.

Anyway I don't trust these machines. They are opaque, you don't even see how many decks are in play or if the decks are even stacked (They didn't spread out all 312 cards before the game so you couldn't check it). In my first CSM session, the dealer seemed to have a Ten as upcard about 70 rather than 30 percent, but I could not record and prove it. I flat bet all the time and played perfect Basic Strategy, lost all 10 units (buy-in) during 1 hour in about 100 games. That makes an EV of -10 percent as opposed to -0.5 percent as expected. Pure bad luck?

The second session, in another country, also versus one-2-six CSM, was the same disaster. Buy-in 10 units, lost all after about 100 hands. Dealer had the expected 5 naturals during these 100 games, I had only one single natural and this was when the dealer had one of his, so I never got any blackjack bonus. Again bad luck?

Just some experiences.

D.A. summed it up for you in one sentence but without firing up a simulator , I can tell you that the probability of losing 10 units within a 100 rounds of an honest game is higher than 1/6. This is to say that the probability of having two such results back to back is higher than 1/36. This is not a rare occurance at all and you shouldn't discount it.

For a more detailed discussion of standard deviation , you may refer to the linked post:
http://blackjacktheforum.com/showthr...on-calculation

**PinkChip** · 05-14-2013, 01:54 PM

Originally Posted by Shark

D.A. summed it up for you in one sentence but without firing up a simulator , I can tell you that the probability of losing 10 units within a 100 rounds of an honest game is higher than 1/6. This is to say that the probability of having two such results back to back is higher than 1/36. This is not a rare occurance at all and you shouldn't discount it.

For a more detailed discussion of standard deviation , you may refer to the linked post:
http://blackjacktheforum.com/showthr...on-calculation

Thanks for the post! I read this formula e.g. in Blackjack Attack 3, but this was one year ago and I made a break and have to remember some things now... you are right in that 1/6 is not that rare, but 1/36 is only about 3 percent, which is IMHO quite rare. It means the probability of being luckier is 97 percent provided that the game dealt is honest, and this reinforces my mistrust in these machines. I just do not believe in coincidences like Gibbs in NCIS :-) It would make more sense that there are reasons why they cover the fashion they shuffle the cards, and not only to thwart shuffler trackers. Hey, would you play a game of poker when the dealer insisted on shuffling the deck of cards invisibly below the table? :-)

**PinkChip** · 05-14-2013, 02:00 PM

Originally Posted by D.A.

I understand the frustration and the need to make sure games are on the square, but your examples are WAY too small of a sample size.

Correct, but there are also other reasons why I avoid these machines now. They render card counting quite useless (even 2 decks out of 6 decks is a lousy penetration of only 33 percent), and they destroy the atmosphere at the table. Full Early Surrender or blackjack payout of 2:1 could change that if the game is dealt honestly, of course. But I have not yet found such favourable rules.

**Shark** · 05-14-2013, 02:21 PM

Originally Posted by PinkChip

Thanks for the post! I read this formula e.g. in Blackjack Attack 3, but this was one year ago and I made a break and have to remember some things now... you are right in that 1/6 is not that rare, but 1/36 is only about 3 percent, which is IMHO quite rare. It means the probability of being luckier is 97 percent provided that the game dealt is honest, and this reinforces my mistrust in these machines. I just do not believe in coincidences like Gibbs in NCIS :-) It would make more sense that there are reasons why they cover the fashion they shuffle the cards, and not only to thwart shuffler trackers. Hey, would you play a game of poker when the dealer insisted to shuffle the deck of cards invisibly below the table? :-)

This is asif you are saying that you mistrust a casino because when you entered and first looked at the roulette wheel the first number that won was 0. This has about the same probability (in a single zero roulette) as you losing 10 units in each of a two back to back sessions.

Allow me to tell you that stranger things happen. I know somebody who won the biggest prize in the lottery...twice (not in a row ).

**PinkChip** · 05-17-2013, 06:26 AM

You're right in that the probability is similar, but the situation is different. When I enter a casino and watch the roulette wheel, I have bet nothing and lose nothing when zero appears. Nor would I be surprised when zero, 24 or any other number appeared. A more comparable situation would be if I bet on all 36 numbers (1, 2, ..., 36) except 0 and then zero comes. This is unlikely (1/37 = 2.7 percent), and I would have lost even 36 units (as opposed to 10 units). But roulette is somewhat difficult to compare due to its much simpler structure.