What it would take to go full time

[Anton Chigurh]

I'm in the middle of a s***ty year, continuing my barely-positive AP career, and I thought I was handling it pretty well: "Results don't approach EV until many multples of N0, yadda yadda yadda ..." and all the other mantras that run through my head like so much elevator music at the AP Hilton. Every big win followed by a loss of equal magnitude: "No problem - this short-term stuff is meaningless."

Then, one fine afternoon, in a good mood, I Wonged in to a rich shoe. Dumped bet after bet as the count tanked. I played no more than 8 hands before moving on, having suffered an abrupt but modest loss, something which, in the course of a long positive shoe would have been nothing more than a fluctuation.

I was despondent. Just wanted to puke. Didn't recover until the next morning.

The psychological challenges can erupt suddenly and disproportionately. I can't imagine what feelings might hatch out during a losing period of several hundred hours.

[Ouchez]

Anton,

Very honest and helpful post to all newer CCers.

It is best to realize that even in the best of games there are few if any guarantees and there is always, 99% of time, the element of true gambling.

The emotional swings can be very damaging and hard to assimilate and over time may cause real harm.

Ouchez

[21forme]

I'm in the middle of a s***ty year, continuing my barely-positive AP career

The secret to winning is not mixing up your pluses and minuses

[Tarzan]

Talking about going full time and doing it by red-chipping it? You need enough money backing you up to play full time. You need to have an overall positive cash flow after any and all living expenses. Any small business course will point out that 60% of all small businesses fail due to insufficient start up capital. Typically the standard rule is for the small business to have enough money backing it to cover at least 6 months of total operating expenses without bringing in a single dime. Blackjack is much along the lines of this same principle but we're talking more like a year or two.

Playing blackjack full time can mean making ridiculous sums of money one year and then making less money than an Indonesian sweatshop worker the next! This is a question that has always come up quite often in which someone is asking about how they can make "the big bucks" on the short stack and oh what the hell those people are on a wing and a prayer; They are doomed to failure for the most part. How much bankroll is enough? It's enough when you really don't know how much it is having to go to a lot of trouble doing an accounting of it to find out, it's enough when you really don't sweat any loss whatsoever because your bankroll has plenty of cushion.

Being financially responsible counts for a lot because many people not only are used to living on a level, evenly distributed income but they also have a "make more so spend more" policy that is financial suicide for a full time blackjack player. Long periods of huge sums piling up, steady horrific losses and periods of stagnation mean that if you're not good at managing your finances you will have issues. If your skill level is not up to par it doesn't matter what your bankroll is you are doomed to failure more than likely.

It's cause for concern (to me at least) when someone is talking about is talking about red-chipping it against 8 decks using Hi-lo and playing full time in the same conversation.

[Lonesome Gambler]

This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I'll throw it out there for posterity:

Going full-time with a bankroll of under $100K is a bad idea if you intend to make a living at this game.

The reason I say this is the same reason that I feel like card counting at low stakes is a bad idea in general if you have aspirations to one day play at a higher level: exposure. If you're making $30/hr counting, it's going to take you a hell of a lot of time to move up in stakes (especially as a full-timer, where a significant portion of your WR goes to living expenses), during which every casino you play in will have hours upon hours to observe your play. Unless you want to bet nickels forever, you'll need to play a strong game, which will be even more memorable to those who take an interest in you. At this level, comps can significantly increase your EV, but they come at the cost of even more exposure once your name is in the system.

Now I understand that simply willing a bankroll to appear out of thin air is hardly an option for most, and grinding one up may involve some nickel counting. If this is the situation you're in, and you're not willing to play on either a Hail Mary or replenishable roll with a relatively high RoR, then I personally feel that the only wise choice is to play extremely aggressive, anonymous sessions at many different properties. If you don't live in Vegas, you can probably forget it.

Personally, if I wanted to start out full-time as a card counter, I would first get enough live experience to where I knew I would be able to cut it day in and day out, then I would make a Hail Mary play. I believe KJ has attributed part of his career success to positive early variance early on, and I was also lucky to run above expectation in my early days, which probably played a role in me sticking around until things got truly interesting. Of course, you run a very high risk of losing it all, and you must be prepared to accept that if you go this route. If you can't stomach the thought of losing your entire bankroll and having to start from scratch, this approach will not work for you.

Probably the best way to get to where you want to be is to have a part-time day job that pays well enough to cover your living expenses. If this is impossible, lower your living expenses until it is. Then play as hard as you can on a replenishable roll with no cover and no players cards. Make sure your job has flexible hours, then take a week off to aggressively wong shoes in Vegas. There are a lot of reasonable shoe games, action at your level is well-tolerated at many places, and hotel rooms can be as cheap as $15 a night. If you bust out, replenish your roll and try it again next month. Eventually you'll hit some positive variance that will allow you to continue, and hopefully you'll be alright from there.

Good luck, and make sure you spend a lot of time in casinos before you decide to take a stab at full-time play. Not everyone has the stomach for this line of work, no matter how good of a player they are.

[muffdiver]

VERY good post, LG!

muffdiver

[KJ]

I think it boils down to kind of a catch 22 for solo professional card counting blackjack play. The ideal candidate will have minimal financial responsibilities and expenses. This often translates into being younger, 20's maybe 30's, single, without the responsibilities of family and mortgage ect. But, this individual often lacks the roughly 100 grand bankroll necessary to have a reasonable shot to make it work. The player that has accumulated the bankroll to succeed, probably doesn't fall into that younger, less financial responsibilities category. Having that kind of bankroll, probably means the individual has experienced financial success elsewhere to the point that averaging mid-high 5 figures isn't that appealing to him. He/she can do much better in the private sector. The interesting exception to this is a player that does have spouse, family to support and mortgage. If the spouse has a strong steady income, perhaps even the the majority income, it certainly could work. So maybe my friend ouchez has the right idea after all.

[TheBalanceOfJudgement]

LG and KJ... spot-on posts. You guys are a huge inspiration & help here. I have a long (long.. long!) term dream of doing what you describe so it's great to see some real-world advice about what is needed. Realistically being able to do what you describe isn't even a twinkle in my eye right now but it's nice to know where I need to be aiming my bow.

A million thanks to the both of you.

[First Normal Form]

Oneoffthecount, your "can I go pro?" post was great, in that you've clearly done more homework and math than is typical for such a post. I'd like to point out one thing that I think has been overlooked so far, since what you were really asking for was a sanity check on your math. You mention playing ten hours per day. That is likely not a sustainable rate of play. Many full-timers have suggested that 500 hours/yr is a lot for an AP. Others I'm sure have done much more, but I wouldn't expect to get in 600 quality hours over your 12 week effort. Eat, sleep, scouting, and commuting from game to game take their toll.

But to move beyond your actual request for math, and into the "should I go pro?" discussion we've started: the first book I read on card counting, stated that it was no longer possible to play professionally. The games had gotten too bad. I think the copyright on that book was 1980. Yet that one line nagged at me for years and years, all the while, many have just gone out and made the money. I've asked the "should I go pro?" many times, and seen it come up in forums often. Eventually, I realized essentially, "If you have to ask, then the answer is 'no'". You should approach it like starting your own business. You would never ask, "I have $X and I hate my day job. Should I buy a Subway's franchise?". You would research the market, your abilities, and formulate a plan towards making it a successful endeavor. You should become the expert on answering that question. Figuring out how to do it part-time, as many have suggested, is the best first step.

Is it possible to make a living counting cards? Yes, and some who are doing it have even posted in this thread. Is it an easy road to riches? No. Somewhere in the middle of these two answers is where you'll find your own answer.

[Oneoffthecount]

Hey Guys-

Just want to point something out. My post wasn't I'm going pro. In fact the first sentence was, I'm not going pro unless I gain a large inheritance or win the lottery. It lead me to the question of "what would it take to go pro". After months of sims and research, I had come to the conclusion that at least $60k would probably be needed and wanted to bounce that off some real lifers. So for me its the occassional outing with friends in which case i have a slightly better chance of winning than they do. Otherwise, I've really enjoyed the challenge of learning to count and I've never had my computer threaten to break my knees because I owe it money. I've also enjoyed the expert responses, they have all been great.

[Anton Chigurh]

You would research the market, your abilities, and formulate a plan towards making it a successful endeavor. You should become the expert on answering that question. Figuring out how to do it part-time, as many have suggested, is the best first step.

Among the business owners I know, frugality and level thinking about rates of return are the two characteristics essential to remaining in business.

It's really about being honest with yourself about what you can and can't handle. Can you sustain the hours all year? Are you going to spend the money as soon as you earn it, or will you spend so much in good times that you must struggle when receipts are lean?

Blackjack is particularly unforgiving. Bankroll management forces even part-time players to have self-control. During an upswing, I found myself thinking, as the dealer colored up piles of blacks, "This is not my money yet. This belongs to my bankroll. I don't have anywhere near the cushion to survive a lean streak yet."

I'm part-time, and I know that if I spend more than half of my earnings, I could end up kissing my bankroll goodbye.

[First Normal Form]

It's really about being honest with yourself about what you can and can't handle.

Funny, right after I posted, I was taken out to lunch by two co-workers. The subject got around to my long-term career goals. I more or less said that I didn't yet have what it takes to start my own business. I'm not ashamed. I'm saving myself some agony knowing that valuable information, and know what I need to work on if I want to go that route. I think it goes double for launching into a career like professional gambling.

Hey Guys-

Just want to point something out. My post wasn't I'm going pro. .

Hah, yeah, we totally ninja'd your thread.

[Al Mucous]

This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I'll throw it out there for posterity:

Going full-time with a bankroll of under $100K is a bad idea if you intend to make a living at this game.

Sounds right to me. Also hat tip to KJ, whose posts on this topic are especially relevant. If anything I think $100K is cutting it close. I guess you can play a $100 unit at about 0.3 Kelly with that amount of bankroll. But it seems, to me (others may disagree & I'd welcome their perspective) that you _need_ that $100 unit, need to be able to put out two hands of $100 at a 0.5 percent edge, in order to earn something approaching a living wage as a professional traveling card counter. In other words you really don't want to bet smaller than that. Meaning that a very bad negative swing could put your entire career in jeopardy. $150K feels so much sounder to me.

Also note that LG's $100K figure is completely separate from living expenses. He's talking about $100K pure bankroll. Presumably with the full year's living expenses set completely aside from the bankroll. One way to think of this is that you begin 2012 with all your spending money for 2012 set aside, and during 2012 you make it your business to earn your spending money for 2013.