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Thread: New member here, new to AP, need some help!

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    New member here, new to AP, need some help!

    Hey guys!

    I've been lurking around the forums for a few weeks reading anything I can to get answers. I've read a few books now on AP and card counting, and they seem to help. My issue is this though; I am attempting to find out what an appropriate optimal bet would be based on my bankroll. I've been lucky enough to accumulate $1000 from blackjack winnings these last few weeks and I'm attempting to figure out what my optimal bets are. Would it just be 5,10,15,20(max)??? I've noticed that there are various simulator programs that could answer this, but alas, I have not bought them for I don't know enough about them to know if they are worth getting.

    Any input/suggestions are appreciated!

    Thanks

  2. #2
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    Not trying to make you feel bad but 1k isn't much of a bankroll for serious AP play. Your RoR will be quite high, I'm afraid. I don't want to discourage you but I think you're better off waiting until you have at least 5k to work with. Even then you'll have to watch your spreads closely.
    Serious high stakes play shouldn't be considered with anything less than 50k BR.
    If you must play, wong aggressively and spread small and you can possibly get your BR up to a more viable level.

    muffdiver

  3. #3


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    $1k is very small but such a small sum that there is no real need no to take a shot if you think you are ready just to get your feet wet....know that with a $1k bank and average rules and pen at a $5 table your chance of losing it all may be greater than 50%....but with a bank that small it shouldn't be a big deal....if it would be hard to reload your bank, I would wait until you have at least $3k to take a shot on the $5tables and even then to have a really good shot with single digit chance of losing it all you'd need $5K+....

  4. #4
    Senior Member Anton Chigurh's Avatar
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    Half Kelly on a $1K bank would be a spread of around $1-$10, depending on the rules and penetration of the particular game.

    Any pattern of betting more than $20, routinely, means near-certain ruin.

    Do a Hail Mary if you wish, but don't kid yourself: you'll need more cash to have a reasonable chance of bankroll growth.

  5. #5


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    I appreciate the replies. I'm curious then, since $5k seems to be the lowest working number, what sort of optimal bet and what would be an avg return if my bankroll were 5k? Apologies again if this seems nooby, I am, afterall, a noob.

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    Also, another noobish question, when you are playing at a casino, how long is your general shift of playing? (I'm sure it varies, but an avg?)

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    You can use the CVCX online calculator on this site. Click on BJ resources in top tool bar above . Then click CVCX online. You can enter different counts, BRs, rules and ROR. Just keep changing one to see how it affects the puzzle then try another.
    Appreciated, tho you've definitely confirmed my nubness

  8. #8


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    Using CVCX is a great idea for optimal betting. But as a rule of thumb, I like my top bets to be NO MORE THAN 1% of my bank roll, and with me that would generally mean two hands at my max bets of no more than 1% each. But, if you are going to play at a $5 minimum tale with $1000 than you'll need to throw optimal betting out the window and should AS IF you had a $5k bankroll if you noted to make any moderate amount of money....with a short bank Andrade chance at busting out, I would want my upside to be huge

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bubler View Post
    Also, another noobish question, when you are playing at a casino, how long is your general shift of playing? (I'm sure it varies, but an avg?)
    No need to apologize for being a noobie. We were all there. The easy answer to your question is-------play as long as you can avoid the heat. That varies greatly from casino to casino.
    I hope you can build your bankroll by another method before "wading in".
    Best of luck.

    muffdiver

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    There is QFIT's matchless software to generate an optimal bet spread.
    There are certainly many things that you need to know, e.g. you ought
    to be placing your personal MAX bet when you have about a 2% advantage, etc.


    Another route is to ask me via P.M. or email.

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