Consider 6 decks, no counting, basic strategy, 'common' rules (I forget, are these rules called Vegas Strip rules?), 70% penetration, 1 player: Over the long run, why, specifically, does the House enjoy a slightly higher edge for the last round of the Shoe than the first round of the Shoe?
Cut card effect, would be my guess.
If I recall correctly: the issue seems to be that, due to the shuffle point, if you experience a drawing sequence with “high value” cards, you inch closer to said shuffle point, whereas drawing “low value” cards jumps you closer to the shuffle point even possibly breaching it!
Since the first scenario results in a lower EV for the player and the latter a higher EV but with the expectation of fewer rounds, the sum of all possible EV’s is less with a shuffle point than with fixed number of rounds.
Here,,it can be suggested that simulation results are “more accurate” due to the inclusion of the shuffle point, whereas a CA would be accurate but less “ideal”, so to speak.
Last edited by lij45o6; 04-26-2025 at 10:18 PM.
For a more detailed explanation of the "cut card effect", see this thread:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ut+card+effect
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Thanks so much lij45o6 and Dog Hand. lij45o6, what is "CA" (your last paragraph)?
I may be mistaken, but I think my question was misunderstood. The player is not counting at all. Perhaps I should not have even spoken of a penetration as it is immaterial. The player is strictly flat betting.
Picture for a moment a heads up, perfect basic strategy player playing with 100% penetration, machine shuffle. This player is flat betting with no card counting whatsoever. In the long run, her EV does not stay constant from round to round. Her EV gets progressively worse for her (admittedly very, very, very slowly) with the passing of each round.
The answer has something to do with deck composition and the number of 10s versus small cards, etc. Chat GPT came close to answering the question by telling me something about the original composition of the shoe in terms of ratio to high cards to low cards is of course most guaranteed to be preserved before Round 1 than, say, before Round 50, for example.
Another way to ask the question is to say why does one billion rounds of only Round 1 yield a (very slightly) lower House advantage versus one billion rounds of isolating the results of, say, Round 50? (flat betting, no counting, perfect basic strategy)
Last edited by Overkill; 04-27-2025 at 08:10 AM. Reason: punctuation
Please disregard any cutting or cut card. Before a cut card would ever even be reached in a game of blackjack, why (specifically) are later rounds worse than earlier rounds for the flat betting, non-counting, basic strategy player?
I think the answer does involve combinatorial analysis, but specifically HOW? For example, and the following may be totally erroneous, but even though there are more 10s, do 10s somehow 'get used up' at a very slightly faster rate in response to, for instance, doubling? Of course tens getting depleted at a faster rate (and/or low cards getting depleted at a slower rate) would favor the House as the shoe progresses, which is what we see.
They aren't! What gave you the notion that they were? Ed Thorp wrote an entire paper on this, which was discussed here a while back. With your above specifications (no CCE), the BS expectations for any hands are identical. You can't play the game in any particular manner so as to change that. It's a fundamental premise of blackjack.Originally Posted by Overkill
Now, if you introduce a cut card, things change. Specifically, the one hand (possibly two) before the cut card is reached will have lower expectation. I'm sure you can simulate this. But, suppose there is a cut card at 4.5/6. Do you want the second hand out of the shoe to have lower EV than the first? It doesn't!
Don
Apologies. My focus has been almost exclusively on Hong Kong Horse Racing for the past 6 months, and I'm just getting back to blackjack. Apparently I cannot legitimately wager on Hong Kong horse racing in my state, and I cannot simply travel to another state to do so without being a resident of said state. I believe one option for me is to travel to New York and make wagers at a racetrack there. So I have shifted my focus back to blackjack for the time being.
Regarding the above thead, simply keep everything I asked intact except change machine shuffling to human shuffling (the dealer uses only her hands to shuffle). Without consulting my notes, I mistakenly recalled that this phenomenon was something that existed with BOTH machine and human shuffling but is amplified with human shuffling.
Summary: human shuffle, no cut card, no counting, basic strategy, flat betting, 6 deck, Strip rules, heads up against the dealer. Why does the House fare slightly better in later rounds than in earlier rounds?
Hi Overkill,
Don has already answered this correctly. There’s no additional house edge when using basic strategy or any fixed strategy (mimic the dealer, never bust, or even a fixed strategy based on a counting system) and flat betting.
The expected value for the first round is exactly the same as for the second, third, fourth, fifth, and so on—provided you haven’t reached the cut card during the last round.
That said, what are you basing your claim on? If it's just personal observation, that’s not enough to draw a solid conclusion. If it's based on code you’ve written, then you’ll need to check carefully for an error.
One simple test you could run is with CVDATA: try it with a fixed number of rounds—first one, then two, then twenty, then thirty. You’ll see the result is always the same: "the house edge".
Hope this helps.
Sincerely,
Cac
Last edited by Cacarulo; 04-27-2025 at 04:14 PM.
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
I wanted to mention that there has been a blackjack game in history that gives players an advantage off the top with no counting, using basic strategy, flat betting, 4 decks, and heads up against the dealer. I am pretty sure the "long-time" APs who are still alive today that have already played this type of game know what I am talking about.
In 1978 when Resorts International opened in Atlantic City. There was a mistake in their rules. They offered early surrender in blackjack. That time card counters all over the world descended in Atlantic City. Then the rules were later replaced with late surrender 6 decks.
But the poster mentioned "Strip rules" only.
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