CV Data V6: Rounds per shoe

[MJ1]

I am simulating a wonging strategy where you play off the top and leave at negative counts. Is there a way to determine for those shoes in which the player departs, how many rounds on average are played for those particular shoes?
Player will exit 70% of shoes according to CVData Misc. Stats.

Thanks,
MJ

[DSchles]

BJA3 is chock full of information on this. Do you have it?

Don

[MJ1]

Of course I have BJA3. But I'm using KO, not Hi-Lo.

Question - if you know the TC frequency for a given game, is there a way to determine the % of shoes where the count will reach a certain threshold?

Thanks,
MJ

[DSchles]

Of course I have BJA3. But I'm using KO, not Hi-Lo.

Question - if you know the TC frequency for a given game, is there a way to determine the % of shoes where the count will reach a certain threshold?

Thanks,
MJ

In your question, you need to replace "frequency" with "frequencies." Once you have the frequency for each TC, the percentage of shoes where the true count will reach that threshold or higher, is simply the sum of that true count and all of the TCs above it.

In the Chapter 10 charts, under Back Count (yes, for Hi-Lo) you see three percentages. The first is for all TCs >= +1, the next for TC >= +2, and the last for TC >= +3. This figure seems more useful to me.

But, if you're asking for the percentage of times we simply touch a specific TC (your mention of "threshold"), then the math gets trickier. Sum all the percentages of all the TCs below that value and subtract from 1. For example, if you want to know if the shoe will ever get to, say, +2, sum all the true counts up to and including +1 and subtract from 1. So, if that value were, say, 85%, then you will touch +2 at some point 15% of the time. Or will you? I wrestled with this for a while, but I think the "premature bumping into the barrier syndrome" (see BJA3, pp. 123-124) applies here. So, I think you need to roughly double that 15% and call the correct answer about 30% for simply touching that threshold.

It would be nice if someone simmed this to confirm my suspicions.

Don

[MJ1]

In your question, you need to replace "frequency" with "frequencies." Once you have the frequency for each TC, the percentage of shoes where the true count will reach that threshold or higher, is simply the sum of that true count and all of the TCs above it.

Thanks, Don. So if the sum of the TC frequencies where TC >= to 2 is 18%, then, on average, 18% of shoes will have a TC of >= to 2.

Simple indeed.

MJ

[Gronbog]

No. 18% of rounds will start at TC >= 2. The percentage of shoes which hit +2 at some point will be somewhat higher as Don has suggested.

[DSchles]

Right. Again, MJ1, reread pages 123-124 in BJA3 for an explanation of this phenomenon.

Don

[G Man]

I am simulating a wonging strategy where you play off the top and leave at negative counts. Is there a way to determine for those shoes in which the player departs, how many rounds on average are played for those particular shoes?
Player will exit 70% of shoes according to CVData Misc. Stats.
Thanks,
MJ

If you do a simple Wong Out sim, using "start play at shuffle" and "stop play at say -2" you should see how many rounds are played when calling CVCX. DO NOT check "force shuffle on exit".
Try it and let us know.