21 Million Bitcoin

[moo321]

I find this utterly mystifying. Trump has been a favorite in the betting markets for months-it is not like this wasn't highly predictable. Yet the crypto and other Trump-related markets acted like this was some kind of amazing development and shot up in value.

Trying to stick to market analysis without any politics here.


It appears that the market's assessment of the impact of the candidates was very divergent. They seem to have thought Trump would be good for both equities and crypto, while Harris would be bad for both. We can see this by their reactions to the election result. However, there was uncertainty about who would win, with Trump only a moderate favorite for the past month or so (55-68%).


There was also uncertainty about whether there would be a contested election. The last election was contested both by Trump and by state attorneys general. Even with Trump winning and Harris conceding, Trump is only at a 95% chance to be inaugurated on Polymarket. There are also criminal cases that haven't been settled, and at least 3 serious assassination attempts.


What I find really odd is why the crypto markets seemed to go up so far on news of Trump winning. It would seem to me like Harris would also be good for crypto, given her involvement with the Biden administration which has had very expansionist monetary policy. There has been no indication she would implement austerity, so why would she be viewed as bad for crypto?

[Archvaldor]

Trying to stick to market analysis without any politics here.


It appears that the market's assessment of the impact of the candidates was very divergent. They seem to have thought Trump would be good for both equities and crypto, while Harris would be bad for both. We can see this by their reactions to the election result. However, there was uncertainty about who would win, with Trump only a moderate favorite for the past month or so (55-68%).


There was also uncertainty about whether there would be a contested election. The last election was contested both by Trump and by state attorneys general. Even with Trump winning and Harris conceding, Trump is only at a 95% chance to be inaugurated on Polymarket. There are also criminal cases that haven't been settled, and at least 3 serious assassination attempts.


What I find really odd is why the crypto markets seemed to go up so far on news of Trump winning. It would seem to me like Harris would also be good for crypto, given her involvement with the Biden administration which has had very expansionist monetary policy. There has been no indication she would implement austerity, so why would she be viewed as bad for crypto?

Your 55-68% numbers are accurate in the context of the polls. However the pollsters have consistently understated Trump's vote share in two elections and more importantly, have overstated the chances of centrist candidates generally in multiple international elections. This isn't a partisan thing - it worked to the advantage of Jeremy Corbyn, a far left candidate by US standards, in the UK in 2017. It also worked in the favour of the UK conservatives in 2024 by a massive 11% margin. There were similar factors at play in France. The phenomena is far too consistent and too strong to be explainable by normal statistical noise. It is too do with representation and shy voters - to speculate further would be to take the thread into the political arena and to be honest I don't know why exactly it is occurring. But it is real. The pollsters have a serious problem.

I say this as somebody who had a very explicit attitude of never taking positions on bets that weren't mathematically quantifiable-I saw too many sharp bettors lose their shirts betting sports in the noughties, guys who made millions previously from blackjack and ap. But I made a lot of money betting into this. I'm really surprised the markets didn't factor it in.

The impact on bitcoin is more comprehensible to me. If you spend a lot of time on youtbe you get a feel for what the crypto bros are into, and they like Trump. Whether that is rational or not or whether Harris might have been good/better for crypto I would not contest the point, but that is very much the sentiment. It is meme culture and all that stuff, more Wall St bets than Wall St, it isn't terribly analytical.

[Gramazeka]

Coin PEPE + 50 % one day !

[moo321]

I'm sure crypto bros like Trump, from a personality perspective or whatever. But he's pro austerity. He's got Elon Musk running a giant program to cut government spending. I could see that being good for equities from the perspective of reducing government crowding out of private investment, etc. But I don't see how it's good for crypto. With crypto, you're rooting for the dollar to be devalued, just like you would with precious metals.

[Norm]

No more mentions of Trump as that will bring us into politics.

[Overkill]

BJC and others,

1) I am a relatively new, low stakes crypto trader. Regarding technical analysis, is it wrong to say indicators such as the RSI (and, to a lesser extent, moving averages) are not very useful during a bull run because, for example, the RSI won't be below 30 as much as 'usual' because the market is so bullish (or strong, as in Relative Strength Index)? Or am I wrong? Maybe look for coins that are above, say, 45 (rather than 30) during a bull run?

2) I've been learning about using DEX screener to look at successful traders' wallets to copy trade. What do you think of this kind (or any kind) of copy trading, especially during a bull run?

3) Cardano is looking Ok (to me, anyway ) today. Any other tips for today or soon?

Thanks for any input!