Don,
Morgan Stanley and other wire houses are now have their advisors offer 1-2%, allocations via etfs.
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per the link there were 708,342 btc transactions yesterday
one year ago there were 294,257 transactions
the # of transactions increased in one year by 140.7% - see link
if I had to guess, I would speculate that in 5 years btc will be worth at least 5 times what it is currently worth in U.S. dollars
but I wouldn't say it will become widespread in usage as a currency
https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitco...coin%20network.
.
Last edited by drunk; 10-17-2024 at 03:05 PM.
Please don't feed the trolls
.
linked is a Washington Post article re how crypto money is flooding Congressional Campaigns in 2024 in an effort to secure favorable regulation
from the article:
"they have blitzed television and radio airwaves with ads involving 67 candidates, many of whom support Crypto interests
they hope to fill the Halls of Congress with lawmakers who can help ward off stringent federal rules at a time when Washington is just beginning to explore new regulation of the industry"
https://archive.ph/ynMBq
.
Please don't feed the trolls
BJC,
The 4 coins you mentioned: Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, and Pepe, are all doing well today. You suggested selling ETH, Solana, and Pepe when they pop and before selling Bitcoin (you said you will start scaling back on Bitcoin in roughly February). If you don't mind, can you be a bit more specific regarding ETH, Solana, and Pepe?
For example, perhaps start scaling back on ETH, Solana, and Pepe in late December? Early January? Tough to say? What are some good indicators to look for to exit those 3 and Bitcoin?
So originally, I planned to start scaling out of my position in February as that is the earliest the BTC price would peak, the peak in the others usually comes about 2-6 weeks after when its uncertain whether the BTC bull run is over and people rotate into other cryptos. All the people who thought they missed out of BTC will buy lower cost cryptos that allow them to accumulate a big amount for little money.
The big caveat is that Trump won, and gets into office in Mid-January and they are talking about buying 200K BTC annually. This changes everything. They will start buying bitcoin in Jan and February putting a floor on the market. There simply is not enough new supply on a annual basis to come close to the demand.
Originally, I was going to break my position into 32 equal units and sell once a week from end of February to October. The thought process is that the earliest it will peak is late Feb/Early March, when it pulls back, no one will know at first whether a bear market is starting or whether it will build towards a greater peak later in the year. It takes roughly 6 months to know. Either way, I would be scaling out well above my purchase price.
The goal with BTC is to hold at least 40-50% of your position and never sell because of the supercycle. Bascially, the 4 year cycle breaks because the demand increases so dramatically as sovereigns, corporations, and other institutions race to accumulate. The idea here is that while it may still be volatile, the 75-80% bear market drops are less likely to happen and the bull cycles could be more extended than in the past. So to hedge your bet, keep some set aside, and then sell some logically based on the existing cycle pattern.
In terms of ETH, SOL and PEPE the idea is to be completely sold out of these. I would start scaling them in April. These will have a bear market regardless of whether the BTC supercycle arises. In fact, if the BTC supercycle arises, could arguably cause them to be even more depressed as people rotate out of them and just go into BTC. You have to imagine if BTC overperforms everyones expectations. Example, if it actually gets above 500K or $1M, it will likely create a buying frenzy. The reality is most people will never own a single whole bitcoin. In 4 years, it will be less likely.
PEPE has the biggest potential for massive price increase since its about a $5B market cap. It would 100x and still not be close to BTC's market cap. Especially in the current scenario where BTC is likely to triple from here.
Anyways, just shoot me a message on here if you want to know what I'm doing. I follow this on a daily basis as things develop.
Originally Posted by Overkill
BTC,
After a first read of your above 2 posts, I wanted to give a big thanks for your suggestions. I may make another post after I digest what you have generously offered.
I get the impression you are not an amateur investor, or, if you are, you didn't just start investing recently.
Finally, I understand any actions I take based on your recommendations are 'on me' and that I still need to do my due diligence.
Thanks again!
I find this utterly mystifying. Trump has been a favorite in the betting markets for months-it is not like this wasn't highly predictable. Yet the crypto and other Trump-related markets acted like this was some kind of amazing development and shot up in value.
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