Greg Special

[Blackjack player]

1000 hrs in 6 months. impressive

[Cohiba]

Lol... Greg special.
I'm new AP. (6 months about 1k hours.) I made my first 'big trip' about 2 months ago.
My bank roll was 3k yes... I'm poor. 3k was a lot. $5 tables $500 max. 4 deck shoe. I was using hi-low.
Last day of trip, 4am in morning. Hell marry.
True Count is +24. 3 and 1/2 deck pen. Less then half a deck left.
I bet Maxx. $500. Dealer gets a 5 showing. I get 2 faces. I split. 10's. Get more tens until I'm 4 hands max split. 2k on table.
I'm sitting on 4 hands ALL 20's vs a 15.
Dealers shows a 10 face...15....pulls the six...21.
True count was +16 still. With like 18 cards left.
This was my only big trip so far. I was going back to my wife a hero or a zero.
I can't believe the luck. Yet it's just how it goes.

Yes it's way overbeting. Yet I mostly wanted to show my wife that it works etc. Lol. Who wouldn't make that bet?? I'd do it again too. Still... just wow. Greg special of my life! =(

Ps. I never split 20's now. Yes I know ypu should etc. Depending on T.C. yet, it brings heat.( I didn't care as I was leaving anyways) and now after doing the math I really don't think it's worth it .
unless the T.C. is super high like it was. You're basically betting 75% to win a extra 25%. I look at the 20 as a win. So it's my bet + winnings+ another bet to split. To win only 25% more.

"There is nothing to show your wife that overbetting works. it doesnt. For if you believe the math that high counts favor the players you should also believe the math that shows that overbetting is most certainly going to lead to ruin.

Cohiba

[Freightman]

"There is nothing to show your wife that overbetting works. it doesnt. For if you believe the math that high counts favor the players you should also believe the math that shows that overbetting is most certainly going to lead to ruin.

Cohiba

Nicely said. The simple facts are that one will never win 50% of hands and further will (only in high counts starting around TC5) seldom experience more wins than losses not taking ties into account.

In other words, you are seldom the favourite to win the next hand.

[Power]

1000 hrs in 6 months. impressive

Ty. =)
It's more like 800 hours in casinos and 200+ at home with wife and/or sons dealing etc.
Yes it was my first big trip. It's when I really realized that even a +20 count can't make up for overbetter haha.

[Blackjack player]

still good but count your ev based on hours at the table only
i had plus 43 in 6 deck and was heads up lost few units. most of the high cards never came out they were behind cut card as rc was 26 when dealer shuffled.

[Freightman]

still good but count your ev based on hours at the table only
i had plus 43 in 6 deck and was heads up lost few units. most of the high cards never came out they were behind cut card as rc was 26 when dealer shuffled.

Regardless of the TC, you don’t have an advantage until the high cards start coming out. Scenario above with high RC and 1 deck left is potential destruction if you put out supermax bets and the count continues to climb. In other words, you never had an advantage.