Negative ev

[G Man]

All good. Spreading 1:20 in a single deck game looks reasonable.

[DSchles]

All good. Spreading 1:20 in a single deck game looks reasonable.

You forgot late surrender at the SD game. There's a lot of that around, as well!

Don

[Cacarulo]

H17 DAS single deck 6 to 5, Rule of 7 pen, you can get a winrate of over $90 with just a 1 to 6 spread if you're playing third base. That's with Hi Lo. It's more with Zen, Hi Opt II, etc.

That's admittedly a good game, but I wouldn't call it contrived. You can get a winrate over $50 playing Rule of 6 pen with ok rules (H17 DAS, no surrender) with a 1-20 spread.

If you're willing to spread more, there is a decent range of games which is at least playable. If you can spread a lot, you don't even need great pen. And late surrender can really add a lot to the game.

I think there's something off with your numbers. Even if a SD game with Ro7 pen existed, which I doubt, it's unlikely you'd achieve a SCORE of $90 with a 1-6 spread.
I ran a simulation using Hi-Lo for SD, H17, DOA, DAS, SPA1, SPL3, BJ 6:5, and Ro7. The SCORE I got with a 1-6 spread was only 5.20.
A 1-10 or 1-12 spread makes it more playable, but as I said earlier, I don’t think Ro7 exists, and even if it did, such spreads wouldn’t likely be allowed.
With Ro6, things look even worse. I might share some SCOREs with you later.

Sincerely,
Cac

[DSchles]

As I suspected. Things looked grossly wrong to me (and G Man) as well.

Don

[moo321]

All good. Spreading 1:20 in a single deck game looks reasonable.

I've done it. A lot. In fact, I've spread a lot more than that. A lot of casinos don't even watch these games.


This is the old trope of "you can't spread X on that game!"


You can do whatever you want if you find a casino that will let you. Especially if you figure out ways to not look like a threat to them, while still maintaining an advantage.

[moo321]

I think there's something off with your numbers. Even if a SD game with Ro7 pen existed, which I doubt, it's unlikely you'd achieve a SCORE of $90 with a 1-6 spread.
I ran a simulation using Hi-Lo for SD, H17, DOA, DAS, SPA1, SPL3, BJ 6:5, and Ro7. The SCORE I got with a 1-6 spread was only 5.20.
A 1-10 or 1-12 spread makes it more playable, but as I said earlier, I don’t think Ro7 exists, and even if it did, such spreads wouldn’t likely be allowed.
With Ro6, things look even worse. I might share some SCOREs with you later.

Sincerely,
Cac

You may have used a 3 to 2 betting ramp. More likely you're not using full indexes, and ran it heads up, rather than with other players at the table.


Number of players and seat position matters a lot in single deck with Rule of X pen. Heads up, the game is only worth $10.87 an hour.


You'll get much better results with 2, 3, or 4 players and the counter at third base than if you run it heads up. The differences can be astronomical. Like 900% increases in EV.

https://bj21.com/articles/card-count...kgameselection

[moo321]

As I suspected. Things looked grossly wrong to me (and G Man) as well.

Don

Attachment 5230

This is single deck, H17, DAS, no surrender, no resplit aces, split to 4 hands, Rule of 7, 3 players, counter sitting in seat 3, 1 to 6 spread. You're looking at a winrate of almost $100.

If you use Zen, it jumps to $130.04, and Hi Opt II is $141.60.


I ran a bunch of sims on this for the book. I can send them over if you want to take a look. You have to have pretty good conditions, or use a fairly large spread. But it's not nearly as bad as people think, where you have to spread 100 to 1 to beat the single deck games or anything.

[aceside]

What does this mean? “Rule of 7 pen.”

[moo321]

What does this mean? “Rule of 7 pen.”

Read the article I posted

[aceside]

Link please.

[DSchles]

All right, let's not drag this out. In SD, Rule of 6 or Rule of 7 means the number of rounds dealt before a shuffle is equal to 7 - number of players (or, 6 - number of players). So, if there are four players at a SD Rule of 7 game, the dealer will deal 7 - 4 = three rounds and then shuffle. If Rule of 6 and two players, the dealer will deal 6 -2 = four rounds and then shuffle.

Clear?

Don

[aceside]

This is clear! I played single-deck Blackjack games at El Cortez several years ago. When the table was full with all 6 players, dealers always dealt out 2 rounds each deck and then shuffled. This real world situation does not fit into any of these rules.

[Cacarulo]

You may have used a 3 to 2 betting ramp. More likely you're not using full indexes, and ran it heads up, rather than with other players at the table.


Number of players and seat position matters a lot in single deck with Rule of X pen. Heads up, the game is only worth $10.87 an hour.


You'll get much better results with 2, 3, or 4 players and the counter at third base than if you run it heads up. The differences can be astronomical. Like 900% increases in EV.

https://bj21.com/articles/card-count...kgameselection

Yes, my simulation was heads-up with the dealer. The idea is that to use a larger spread, more rounds are necessary—in this case, 1 player and 6 rounds.
The other extreme would be 6 players and 1 round, in which case I would have to stick to flat betting. But if you say that with 3 players and 4 rounds,
the counter sitting at third base will get a SCORE 900% better, that warrants another simulation. I’ll see what I get.

Another important factor to consider is the number of rounds per hour in each case. The SCORE in the second scenario should definitely be adjusted to account for this.

Sincerely,
Cac