BJ Tables in Argentina (question for House Edge expert)

**Cacarulo** · 11-14-2024, 05:58 AM

Anyway I would like to confirm EV and Sd for these two options (for some reason we never confirm those numbers with Cac )

Sorry Seraph, I missed this request you made. These would be the EV and SD for each of the suggested schemes.

Code:

1) PA

Rounds played = 100.00%

 SPREAD   EV/H   SD/H   ROR%      N0    DI  SCORE     WR      EKB   AVB      OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1 - 20  3.228 63.150  13.53   38281  5.11  26.12  26.12  1235.56 3.040   8.094

2) WO at TC <= -2

Rounds played = 74.34%

 SPREAD   EV/H   SD/H   ROR%      N0    DI  SCORE     WR      EKB   AVB      OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1 - 20  2.844 47.804  13.53   28259  5.95  35.39  35.39   803.59 2.111  12.444

Sincerely,
Cac

**Seraph** · 11-14-2024, 06:52 AM

Thanks Cac

**bjarg** · 11-18-2024, 04:14 AM

Originally Posted by Seraph

That is fantastic, Did you develope your own software?

Anyway I would like to confirm EV and Sd for these two options (for some reason we never confirm those numbers with Cac )

Bankroll 2000 units

TC <= 0 => 1u
TC = +1 => 3u
TC = +2 => 8u
TC = +3 => 14u
TC >= +4 => 20u

Bankroll 1100 units

TC <= -2 => WO
TC <= 0 => 1u
TC = +1 => 2u
TC = +2 => 5u
TC = +3 => 9u
TC = +4 => 13u
TC = +5 => 17u
TC >= +6 => 20u

Thanks in advance

Bankroll 2000 units

TC <= 0 => 1u
TC = +1 => 3u
TC = +2 => 8u
TC = +3 => 14u
TC >= +4 => 20u

HEADS UP
1.000.000.000 ROUNDS SIMMED
HI LO FULL INDEXES

SCORE: 29.34
WINRATE ($/HOUR): 8329.78
STD DEV ($/HOUR): 109,555.96

I will do the other one later because for some reason the sim is crashing after I finish simming.

**Seraph** · 12-09-2024, 05:01 AM

Originally Posted by Cacarulo

Sorry Seraph, I missed this request you made. These would be the EV and SD for each of the suggested schemes.

Code:

1) PA

Rounds played = 100.00%

 SPREAD   EV/H   SD/H   ROR%      N0    DI  SCORE     WR      EKB   AVB      OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1 - 20  3.228 63.150  13.53   38281  5.11  26.12  26.12  1235.56 3.040   8.094

2) WO at TC <= -2

Rounds played = 74.34%

 SPREAD   EV/H   SD/H   ROR%      N0    DI  SCORE     WR      EKB   AVB      OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1 - 20  2.844 47.804  13.53   28259  5.95  35.39  35.39   803.59 2.111  12.444

Sincerely,
Cac

Hi Cac

I got my full bankroll back ( Quick flip the motorcicle I bought for profit), so I will be able to put 2x bets again.
I wonder If you could tell me the correct EV with this ( taking in consideration the bet ramps you provided me)

Play all
TC <= 0 => 1u
TC = +1 => 2x (3u*0.72)
TC = +2 => 2x (8u*0.72)
TC = +3 => 2x (14u*0.72)
TC >= +4 => 2x (20u*0.72)

Wong Out
TC <= -2 => WO
TC <= 0 => 1u
TC = +1 => 2x (2u*0.72)
TC = +2 => 2x (5u*0.72)
TC = +3 => 2x (9u*0.72)
TC = +4 => 2x (13u*0.72)
TC = +5 => 2x (17u*0.72)
TC >= +6 => 2x (20u*0.72)

TBH , at the hours I go to the Casino theres only one table open, and Im basically playing 3 hours heads up, so its imposible to Wong Out, so Play all (sadly) will be more realistic number for me

Thanks again CAC

**Cacarulo** · 12-09-2024, 05:26 PM

Originally Posted by Seraph

Hi Cac

I got my full bankroll back ( Quick flip the motorcicle I bought for profit), so I will be able to put 2x bets again.
I wonder If you could tell me the correct EV with this ( taking in consideration the bet ramps you provided me)

Play all
TC <= 0 => 1u
TC = +1 => 2x (3u*0.72)
TC = +2 => 2x (8u*0.72)
TC = +3 => 2x (14u*0.72)
TC >= +4 => 2x (20u*0.72)

Wong Out
TC <= -2 => WO
TC <= 0 => 1u
TC = +1 => 2x (2u*0.72)
TC = +2 => 2x (5u*0.72)
TC = +3 => 2x (9u*0.72)
TC = +4 => 2x (13u*0.72)
TC = +5 => 2x (17u*0.72)
TC >= +6 => 2x (20u*0.72)

TBH , at the hours I go to the Casino theres only one table open, and Im basically playing 3 hours heads up, so its imposible to Wong Out, so Play all (sadly) will be more realistic number for me

Thanks again CAC

Hi Seraph,

Unfortunately, I couldn’t find the simulations I ran for you a while back. However, no problem—give me until tomorrow, and I’ll run them again.
There’s a good chance they’ll show some improvements, as I’ve recalculated a few indices and added some new ones.
The betting ramp might change slightly, but the SCORE is likely to improve.

Sincerely,
Cac

**Seraph** · 12-10-2024, 03:26 AM

Originally Posted by Cacarulo

Hi Seraph,

Unfortunately, I couldn’t find the simulations I ran for you a while back. However, no problem—give me until tomorrow, and I’ll run them again.
There’s a good chance they’ll show some improvements, as I’ve recalculated a few indices and added some new ones.
The betting ramp might change slightly, but the SCORE is likely to improve.

Sincerely,
Cac

Take all the time that you need, thanks in advance Cac, I really appreciated

**Cacarulo** · 12-10-2024, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by Seraph

Take all the time that you need, thanks in advance Cac, I really appreciated

Hi Seraph,

a) One hand

Code:

Rounds played = 100.00%

SPREAD   EV/H    SD/H   ROR%      N0    DI  SCORE     WR      EKB   AVB      OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 20  3.226  62.538  13.53   37577  5.16  26.61  26.61  1212.27 3.033   8.249

TC <=   0 ==>   1u
TC  =  +1 ==>   3u
TC  =  +2 ==>   8u
TC  =  +3 ==>  14u
TC  =  +4 ==>  19u
TC >=  +5 ==>  20u

For a 2000 unit bankroll of 3000 pesos each and using this betting scheme, the ROR you will face is 3.69% and
your WR would be 9,677.54$/h

b) Two hands

Code:

Rounds played = 100.00%

SPREAD   EV/H    SD/H   ROR%      N0    DI  SCORE     WR      EKB   AVB      OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 20  6.523 103.978  13.53   25409  6.27  39.36  39.36  1657.43 3.040   6.033

To maintain the same ROR while playing two hands all the time, you would need to multiply your bets by approximately 0.73 (6.033 / 8.249).
What's the issue with this? When you need to play two hands of $3000 * 0.73 ($2190 each), you will fall below the minimum allowed bet, which is $3000.
There are several ways to address this, but let's go with the most practical solution: keeping the minimum bet at $3000 and adjusting the other bets.
This will slightly increase the ROR but not significantly. The WR would be approximately 13,300 $/h.
All these numbers are hypothetical since, even if a minimum bet of $2190 were allowed, it would make more sense to bet $2000 or $2500.

Another option is to set your minimum bet at $4110 (3000 / 0.73). This way, when multiplied by 0.73, you would end up with two bets of $3000.
If you wanted to maintain the ROR at 3.69%, you would also need to increase your bankroll to 2000 * 3000 / 0.73 ~ 8,200,000 pesos (instead of 6,000,000 pesos).

Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cac

**Seraph** · 12-11-2024, 05:43 AM

Thanks again Cacarulo, I trully appreciate the time you take

Originally Posted by Cacarulo

There are several ways to address this, but let's go with the most practical solution: keeping the minimum bet at $3000 and adjusting the other bets.
This will slightly increase the ROR but not significantly. The WR would be approximately 13,300 $/h.

Im a little confused with one thing , the 13,300 $/h win rate is with the following scheme

TC <= 0 ==> 1x 1u
TC = +1 ==> 2x 3u*0.73
TC = +2 ==> 2x 8u*0.73
TC = +3 ==> 2x 14u*0.73
TC = +4 ==> 2x 19u*0.73
TC >= +5 ==> 2x 20u*0.73

or with this one?

TC <= 0 ==> 2x 1u
TC = +1 ==> 2x 3u*0.73
TC = +2 ==> 2x 8u*0.73
TC = +3 ==> 2x 14u*0.73
TC = +4 ==> 2x 19u*0.73
TC >= +5 ==> 2x 20u*0.73

Originally Posted by Cacarulo

There’s a good chance they’ll show some improvements, as I’ve recalculated a few indices and added some new ones.

BTW this are the indices Im using right now

bastrategy.jpg

**Cacarulo** · 12-11-2024, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by Seraph

Thanks again Cacarulo, I trully appreciate the time you take

Im a little confused with one thing , the 13,300 $/h win rate is with the following scheme

TC <= 0 ==> 1x 1u
TC = +1 ==> 2x 3u*0.73
TC = +2 ==> 2x 8u*0.73
TC = +3 ==> 2x 14u*0.73
TC = +4 ==> 2x 19u*0.73
TC >= +5 ==> 2x 20u*0.73

or with this one?

TC <= 0 ==> 2x 1u
TC = +1 ==> 2x 3u*0.73
TC = +2 ==> 2x 8u*0.73
TC = +3 ==> 2x 14u*0.73
TC = +4 ==> 2x 19u*0.73
TC >= +5 ==> 2x 20u*0.73

Actually, it would be this:

TC <= 0 ==> 2x 1u*0.73
TC = +1 ==> 2x 3u*0.73
TC = +2 ==> 2x 8u*0.73
TC = +3 ==> 2x 14u*0.73
TC = +4 ==> 2x 19u*0.73
TC >= +5 ==> 2x 20u*0.73

The ideal approach would be to increase the minimum bet (unit) from $3000 to $4110 and the bankroll from $6,000,000 to $8,200,000.
In this case, the ROR would remain at 3.69%, but the WR would be $19,572.35/h.

If you are unable to increase your bankroll but still decide to raise the minimum bet to $4110, then the WR would be $19,572.35/h,
but your ROR would increase to 8.95%, which I consider a bit high.

Another option, for which I have run another sim, is to bet the minimum on a single hand when the true count is less than +1
and switch to two hands if the true count is +1 or higher.

Code:

SPREAD   EV/H   SD/H   ROR%      N0    DI  SCORE     WR      EKB   AVB      OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 20  4.572 80.929  13.53   31330  5.65  31.92  31.92  1432.47 2.276   6.981

TC <=  0 ==> 1x  1u
TC  = +1 ==> 2x  2u*0.85
TC  = +2 ==> 2x  7u*0.85
TC  = +3 ==> 2x 12u*0.85
TC  = +4 ==> 2x 17u*0.85
TC >= +5 ==> 2x 20u*0.85

With the factor of 0.85 (6.981 / 8.249), we would achieve the same ROR (3.69%) as for a single hand. However, in this scheme, the WR would be $11,659.65/h.

BTW this are the indices Im using right now

bastrategy.jpg

The indices are OK. I just added TTv2=+6 and TTv7=+9.

Sincerely,
Cac

**Seraph** · 12-11-2024, 11:43 AM

Thanks Cac, I will go for this option

Originally Posted by Cacarulo

Another option, for which I have run another sim, is to bet the minimum on a single hand when the true count is less than +1
and switch to two hands if the true count is +1 or higher.
Code:
SPREAD EV/H SD/H ROR% N0 DI SCORE WR EKB AVB OU
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 - 20 4.572 80.929 13.53 31330 5.65 31.92 31.92 1432.47 2.276 6.981

TC <= 0 ==> 1x 1u
TC = +1 ==> 2x 2u*0.85
TC = +2 ==> 2x 7u*0.85
TC = +3 ==> 2x 12u*0.85
TC = +4 ==> 2x 17u*0.85
TC >= +5 ==> 2x 20u*0.85

With the factor of 0.85 (6.981 / 8.249), we would achieve the same ROR (3.69%) as for a single hand. However, in this scheme, the WR would be $11,659.65/h.

One more question, Is the difference in the bet ramp due to the fact that I will bet 1 unit on a single hand when the true count is <= 0 ?

**Cacarulo** · 12-11-2024, 12:11 PM

Originally Posted by Seraph

Thanks Cac, I will go for this option

One more question, Is the difference in the bet ramp due to the fact that I will bet 1 unit on a single hand when the true count is <= 0 ?

Yep, that's right.

Sincerely,
Cac