I don't think there is anything wrong. The sim results are actually closer to my actual results both positive and negative so I'm not complaining.
Is there a way to make even worse penetration than 3 decks cut out of an 8 deck game? If I'm correct that you can't cut out more decks than that, I understand the implication: "Never bother playing anything worse than that, so why would you want to sim it?" Even still, I think it would be useful to confirm a person's belief that those games are not worth playing. Prime example: online blackjack, with its infamous 8 deck, half shoe penetration, no DAS, no resplitting aces. I'd like to confirm my suspicion that you'd have to risk like $500 in good counts just to make minimum wage.
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