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Thread: CVCX Update – Readapting Kelly

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    CVCX Update – Readapting Kelly

    A free update to CVCX V6 and CVData V6 is now available with an overhauled optimal betting calculation engine. First, a few words on Kelly criterion:

    First described in 1956, Kelly criterion is designed to optimize bets for maximizing the logarithmic growth rate of a bankroll. The methodology has reportedly been used by successful investors like Warren Buffett. I believe Thorp was the first to apply it to blackjack. When applied to blackjack, some difficulties arise. The major problem, as Don has recently pointed out here, is the need to keep the bets in a range of a minimum bet and that amount times the desired spread. There is an iterative algorithm, long used by CVCX, to determine the optimal minimum bet. But it is not perfect. For example, some bets may be made with negative EV, you cannot bet pennies, and simply rounding bets to the closet integer bet is less than optimal. CVCX has always included code to deal with this. Any constraint on Kelly reduces the optimization.

    Other constraints exist, some of which are becoming more bothersome to the calculations. For example, table minimums are growing, which may not allow the optimal minimum to be used. You may not wish to use dollar chips or $5 chips. For example you may want all bets to use green and higher chips. Or you may want bets to be multiples of the minimum. You may desire a small spread for cover purposes. You may want a very low risk of ruin. You may have a limited bankroll. Each of these can substantially affect the calculations and more so in combination. Given the increasing constraints, I decided to overhaul the code a few months ago. Kelly criterion is still used at the heart of the new process. But there are now several additional levels of polishing to find a more optimal solution taking into account all of the user’s inputs. Of course you can still tweak the results to find a betting ramp that you find more comfortable, while seeing the immediate impacts on risk and win rate.

    The point of this exercise is to squeeze more dollars out of the casinos while improving the ability to fit your desired risk. If your situation is simple—a large bankroll compared to your risk of ruin, a decent game, reasonably large spread, no large constraint on chip sizes—you may often see little or no improvement. The more constraints, the more likely you will see a substantial improvement in win rate and/or a result that is much closer to your desired risk.

    There is also a new Table Minimum setting. This is different from the Min. Chip Size setting. So if it is a black table, set it to $100 and all calculated bets will be at least that amount.

    Note: the time required for a solution will increase in many cases. Most will still require a fraction of a second, but more stringent constraints can require substantially more time as some will require a million instructions. As you click through the levels of desired risk, spread, or penetration, you will note that some solutions are instantaneous while others may pause for a few seconds. Fortunately, PCs have been rapidly growing in speed. If you wish to make many setting changes, there is a new field named Suspend Calculations that will stop the constant recalculation while you are changing the settings. When all settings are as you wish, turn it off to get a new calculation.

    If you have CVCX V6 or CVData V6, when you start the programs, the bottom left of the main screen will indicate that a new release is available. Click the install button and both programs will be upgraded in a few seconds. I will still be fine tuning for a while. So if you see a situation where you think there is a better solution, please email me.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Good job Norm !
    I know you did work a lot on all this
    G Man

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    A while back, someone criticized me for using Gandhi as my avatar. But here is a picture of me practicing Kelly betting.

    gandhi1.png
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    A while back, someone criticized me for using Gandhi as my avatar. But here is a picture of me practicing Kelly betting.

    gandhi1.png
    Every time Ben Kingsley tried to enter a casino, the staff would stop him at the door: "Hey, you're not Gandhi, you're Norman Wattenberger. Nice try, buddy".
    And then they would kindly show him the exit.

    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    A while back, someone criticized me for using Gandhi as my avatar. But here is a picture of me practicing Kelly betting.

    gandhi1.png
    I hope you told them nicely to STHU
    Chance favors the prepared mind

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    Thank you for the hard work !

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    BTW Norm, sorry if this is out of topic.

    Could you please take a look at this rules , and tell me if it is posible to sim in CVCX ?
    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...e-Edge-expert)

    Thanks in advance

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Definitely not in CVCX. In CVData, two rules:

    Tied BJ paid 50% ( no even money offered) and you can also insurance, so in case both got BJ you win the insurance and the 50% paid.

    Also every unnatural BJ ( after splitting either 10s or As) are paid 3:2

    Each could be handled alone in CVData. Probably not together.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Definitely not in CVCX. In CVData, two rules:

    Tied BJ paid 50% ( no even money offered) and you can also insurance, so in case both got BJ you win the insurance and the 50% paid.

    Also every unnatural BJ ( after splitting either 10s or As) are paid 3:2

    Each could be handled alone in CVData. Probably not together.
    Thanks for the quick response!!
    I will keep tring to make them work

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    What is the difference between CVCX V.5 and V.6 (CVData and CVBJ)? How do I upgrade?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    The differences between V5 and V6 are at https://www.qfit.com/blackjacksoftware-cvdatav6.htm.
    Links to CVCX, CVData, and CVBJ descriptions are at https://www.qfit.com/card-counting-blackjack.htm
    Upgrades are available at https://www.qfit.com/orders.htm#upg
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Just updated CVData and ran my "standard" sims for my situations and notice a different win rate than previously calculated (higher). I wonder if this is due to some change since v 5. Also I appreciate the ability to adjust the risk of ruin in the "call cvcx" section. Thanks for the hard work and availability Norm.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I don't know why that would be if you are just looking at the CVData screens. If you send me a Tools-Export, I can look.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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