See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Results 1 to 5 of 5

Thread: When to leave a shoe using an unbalanced count

  1. #1
    Member BackCounter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2023
    Location
    Northern California
    Posts
    36


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    When to leave a shoe using an unbalanced count

    Hello; I had wanted to know when to leave a shoe when using an unbalanced count such as UBZII. A rule using a fixed Wong-out number clearly will not do because we expect the running count to be lower early in the shoe. The BJA chapter 13 method gives an idealized answer but is very demanding; it is easier to calculate the expected player advantage for the rest of a shoe given the shoe position and count, and use that as a “point of departure” (!) for making the decision. In other words, if the count two decks into the shoe is only X, should I stay or should I go?

    Here it is; 6 decks, H17, DAS, 4.5/6 penetration; sim was run using bet camouflage, 1-10 spread, 14 indices. Baseline player advantage is about 0.46%. Averaged over the whole shoe, the current-hand player advantage turns positive at a count of -6. The graph shows that two decks into the shoe, if the count is -18, the expected advantage for the rest of the shoe is zero and there is no reason to keep playing. If the count is -15, the expected advantage is 0.5% and we might as well stay. But three decks in, we don’t have the same advantage unless the count is -10.

    advantageUbzRunning.png

    The above is sort of a hybrid between using a running count and a true count. If the running count is converted to a true count, the graphs look like this:

    advantageUbzTrue2.png

    The same thing using Hi-Lo and the 1-12 “Rabbit” bet ramp:

    advantageHiLoTrue2.png

    Having calculated these, the departure points are like indices.

    In case anyone is interested . . . .

    Last edited by BackCounter; 05-18-2024 at 09:23 PM. Reason: improved the images

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I never liked the categorization of "unbalanced counts" to refer to those where the RC is not converted to TC.
    Both balanced and unbalanced counts can be converted to TC. This applies to KO (TKO) as well as UBZII (TUBZII).
    With this clarification, it is best to convert the RC to TC and leave the table when it reaches "-5" or lower.
    For this conversion to work, we must start the count with an IRC of -4 times the number of decks (-24).
    A TC of "-5" in TKO or in TUBZII is equivalent to a TC of "-1" in a balanced system.

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

  3. #3
    Member BackCounter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2023
    Location
    Northern California
    Posts
    36


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Hello; that got me thinking; had not paid any attention to true-counting unbalanced counts before. I re-ran the sim using true counts from the start rather than just converting them for the graph; the departure counts went down a little. Plus, the win rate went up a little. The advantage goes positive at TC -2.

    advantageTUbzTrue.png

  4. #4


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by BackCounter View Post
    Hello; that got me thinking; had not paid any attention to true-counting unbalanced counts before. I re-ran the sim using true counts from the start rather than just converting them for the graph; the departure counts went down a little. Plus, the win rate went up a little. The advantage goes positive at TC -2.

    advantageTUbzTrue.png
    The first advantage should appear at -3 (which is equivalent to a TC = +1 in a balanced system).
    Not only do you have to start the IRC at -24, but you also need to adjust your indices to use the same IRC.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Leaving a shoe?
    Yesterday left a table at -8rc and then left another table at -12rc. After that, the tables were packed, no spaces available. Drove an hour and 20 minutes to get there. Left at the 1 hour mark unable to reenter a table.

Similar Threads

  1. Leave Table (Shuffle) at a certain count
    By CEO1 in forum Software
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11-01-2020, 02:32 PM
  2. Victor Francis: When should I leave a shoe?
    By Victor Francis in forum Blackjack Beginners
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 07-05-2004, 10:35 AM
  3. Replies: 7
    Last Post: 12-12-2003, 10:48 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.