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Thread: How much does perfect play reduce house advantage?

  1. #1


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    How much does perfect play reduce house advantage?

    If the house edge is 0.3, how much can perfect play based on depleted shoe composition reduce that edge by? I've seen old Tarzan threads suggesting that it can reduce HE almost by as much as 0.3, allowing him to spread smaller and make the money.

    If anyone has done any sims on this, please feel free to comment!

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by arrogance View Post
    If the house edge is 0.3, how much can perfect play based on depleted shoe composition reduce that edge by? I've seen old Tarzan threads suggesting that it can reduce HE almost by as much as 0.3, allowing him to spread smaller and make the money.

    If anyone has done any sims on this, please feel free to comment!
    Speaking of Arrogance
    https://youtu.be/zm9AbH7CnBc?si=TlByLYXzEHMH6XWQ

    and
    https://youtu.be/QlOYCrWJB0E?si=bNfQMiiS0y9iUZmu

    and so much more

  3. #3


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    If the house edge is 0.3
    My goodness - where is that game - say nothing.

    I've seen old Tarzan threads suggesting that it can reduce HE almost by as much as 0.3
    If you’re talking about floating advantage, then “depleted” means starting give or take 5th deck of 6 deck shoe, that concept comes into play. Essentially, (Schlesinger) theory says floating advantage adds about .5% to to true count. At .3 house edge, I suspect that number would increase.

    If perfect play means optimal bet spread without indices, then I would suggest that above noted comment would apply. Others may have different thoughts.

    If perfect play means optimal bet spread with, let’s say, I18 indices, then I would have initially agreed 30% increase in EV - however a fairly recent thread on the issue suggested increases of up to to 80% on a S17 game, and reasonably close at H17. I would further add that increases to EV increase with greater penetration. This would primarily be to increased higher true count indices coming into play.

    And yes - you would be able to spread less and make good money.
    Last edited by Freightman; 11-23-2023 at 09:18 PM. Reason: Add last line

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    Normally, "perfect play" refers to knowledge of the exact composition, rank by rank, of every card remaining in the shoe. And, the potential gain from such knowledge is surely greater than 0.3%.

    Don

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Normally, "perfect play" refers to knowledge of the exact composition, rank by rank, of every card remaining in the shoe. And, the potential gain from such knowledge is surely greater than 0.3%.

    Don
    Yeah, back my mind - knew there was something else. It would be fun to split 4,s and 5’s v 10 and other assorted oddball plays.

    FBM ASC would be far easier

  6. #6
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    To answer this question, you can just do an experiment by playing a 6-deck shoe to a 75% dealing depth. The Wizard has a Blackjack Hand Calculator, which takes into account the exact composition of the remaining cards in a shoe. However, this calculator isn’t working properly lately.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    ... the potential gain from such knowledge is surely greater than 0.3%.

    Don
    ... and that does not include the most expensive hot dogs.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    To answer this question, you can just do an experiment by playing a 6-deck shoe to a 75% dealing depth. The Wizard has a Blackjack Hand Calculator, which takes into account the exact composition of the remaining cards in a shoe. However, this calculator isn’t working properly lately.
    aceside,

    Here is an alternative to the Wiz's hand calculator, written by Eric Farmer:

    https://github.com/possibly-wrong/blackjack

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  9. #9
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    Thank you for the info! I’d like to do such an experiment myself with an app on my cellphone. I will just bet the same pattern as what I would usually do with HiLo but play perfect strategy every hand to find out a rough number.

  10. #10


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    Give me a shoe full of nothing but 3's.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Give me a shoe full of nothing but 3's.
    Great for doubling A7 v x (or hard 18 for that matter). Other than that, could you clarify further.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Great for doubling A7 v x (or hard 18 for that matter). Other than that, could you clarify further.
    I said "nothing but 3's".

    You'd constantly get dealt 3,3 vs 3. Then you'd split and re-split to 4 hands, hit all of them to 21 and watch as the dealer dutifully hit and have to stand on 18.

    Obviously this would never happen but it's fun to imagine it.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    I said "nothing but 3's".

    You'd constantly get dealt 3,3 vs 3. Then you'd split and re-split to 4 hands, hit all of them to 21 and watch as the dealer dutifully hit and have to stand on 18.

    Obviously this would never happen but it's fun to imagine it.
    Reminds me of a hand a few years ago. Was playing an ES10 game getting 88 v 10 in a real big negative count. Split to 4 hands (no doubles) all beating dealer 17.

    Initial bet was only $25 - result was so satisfying - critter commenting “you are so lucky).

    Recall playing 2 hands each receiving 99 v dealer 2 with intermediate bet. Each hand split to 4 hands - in other words - 8 9’s on the table with several doubles out there all ending with shitty results. Fortunately dealer had the good grace to bust. Same store as first example and for that matter same critter at this out of town location.

    Recall another round playing 2 hands at same chain different location. First hand was 77v 6 split to 4 hands with 2 doubles. Don’t recall the total second hand, but I recall a justified risk averse double (last of chips before going into wallet) slightly for less 8v6. Love those wins. Stores in question all CSM now.
    Last edited by Freightman; 11-24-2023 at 10:27 PM. Reason: Add 2nd last and last paragraph

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