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Thread: Should I continue playing as AP?

  1. #14


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    Yeah there's only 1 casino nearby. I havent played at other casinos. Ill give the 6 deck a shot. Wizard of oddz says its the 6 deck at my location has an edge og .64%. Double deck is .58%

  2. #15


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    The way I'm reading your post, it sounds like you're not even playing basic strategy 100% correct. If I read that correctly, stop playing immediately, and don't start again until you can play tens of thousands of hands of basic strategy without making a single mistake.

    If you're going to play blackjack at a professional level, you should be playing basic 100% correct. A single playing mistake can wipe out several hours' EV. This is just not negotiable. You will not find professional players that disagree with me.

    You shouldn't be making counting errors, either. You should be able to count down multiple entire shoes in a row without making counting mistakes. These playing and counting mistakes are probably the #2 reason people fail at counting.
    The Cash Cow.

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by moo321 View Post
    The way I'm reading your post, it sounds like you're not even playing basic strategy 100% correct. If I read that correctly, stop playing immediately, and don't start again until you can play tens of thousands of hands of basic strategy without making a single mistake.

    If you're going to play blackjack at a professional level, you should be playing basic 100% correct. A single playing mistake can wipe out several hours' EV. This is just not negotiable. You will not find professional players that disagree with me.

    You shouldn't be making counting errors, either. You should be able to count down multiple entire shoes in a row without making counting mistakes. These playing and counting mistakes are probably the #2 reason people fail at counting.
    I believe my basic strategy is 100% the playing errors i get are with deviation like when to hit/stay a 12 vs 2,3,4,5,6. I got those down now and memorized. I dont have issues with counting. Ill be honest that my quarter deck estimation is not perfect which causes the betting error.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by rex1530 View Post
    Ill be honest that my quarter deck estimation is not perfect which causes the betting error.
    Hence one of my reasons for not using a TC based system...

  5. #18


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    If you're not playing single deck, you really don't need quarter-deck resolution.

    Don

  6. #19


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    One of the reasons a LOT of card counters drop out at the begining is not having a big enough bankroll to withstand variance. It really, really is a thing and sometimes you just hit a bad game, bad hand and no matter what you do.. you lose. Perfect counting, perfect play and perfect betting be damned... I played today and was up at one point $600.00 playing $25.00 min table 4 deck shoe DAS H17 and the TC was at +5 and I got an 8-8 vs a dealers 6. I had out just 1 spot of $200.00 (table max was $500) bet since I was playing head to head ( advantage of going in at 9am on a Saturday ) and I pulled a third 8 which I split. On hand #1 I had a 8-Ace, hand #2 I had a 8-10, hand #3 I pulled ANOTHER 8 which I split again. So hand #3 I had a 8-2-10 for 20, and then on hand #4 I had a 8-7. The dealer flips his card (10) for 16 then pulls a 5.. I bust on all 4 hands... $800.00 dollar loss and I played every hand right. I had 1 $25.00 chip left and I tossed it the dealer and thanked her for a great 2 hours of game play (another reason I don't get heat when I play because I win nice and I lose nice. I could have kept playing I guess but after taking a hit like that, I thought I would just come back next week and try and again fresh.. On black Friday I played at the same casino and made $500.00 after 90-mins of play. You just got to put in the hours... and build up your bankroll.. You sound like a smart player to me.. I can't even do half deck counts accurately and I have only memorized less than half a dozen index plays so you are way ahead of me.. Variance is a real thing.. No blackjack player can win ALL of the time.

  7. #20


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    You're lucky you didn't play the first and third hands correctly and double both of them! Then, you'd have had the proper amount of $1,200 on the felt. When what happened to you happens, I always point out that the single turn of a card should have cost you $2,400. Maddening!

    Don

  8. #21


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    You're lucky you didn't play the first and third hands correctly and double both of them!
    The new basic strategy call for that double. When it was basic to pass, I passed - I still pass preferring to think of it as a low cost error.

    Considerations for those that don’t include cover, other arrows in the arsenal etc. Definitely agree though on hand 3.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by rex1530 View Post
    I believe my basic strategy is 100% the playing errors i get are with deviation like when to hit/stay a 12 vs 2,3,4,5,6. I got those down now and memorized. I dont have issues with counting. Ill be honest that my quarter deck estimation is not perfect which causes the betting error.
    Ok, I misunderstood. If it's just being slightly off with index plays, that's not as big of a deal. Work on it, but it's not a catastrophe to be slightly off with an index play.

    I don't know a lot of people that use quarter deck estimation. Being off by a quarter deck is really nothing for straight counting. Lots of successful counters use full deck estimation and get the money.
    The Cash Cow.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by VonDox View Post
    One of the reasons a LOT of card counters drop out at the begining is not having a big enough bankroll to withstand variance. It really, really is a thing and sometimes you just hit a bad game, bad hand and no matter what you do.. you lose. Perfect counting, perfect play and perfect betting be damned... I played today and was up at one point $600.00 playing $25.00 min table 4 deck shoe DAS H17 and the TC was at +5 and I got an 8-8 vs a dealers 6. I had out just 1 spot of $200.00 (table max was $500) bet since I was playing head to head ( advantage of going in at 9am on a Saturday ) and I pulled a third 8 which I split. On hand #1 I had a 8-Ace, hand #2 I had a 8-10, hand #3 I pulled ANOTHER 8 which I split again. So hand #3 I had a 8-2-10 for 20, and then on hand #4 I had a 8-7. The dealer flips his card (10) for 16 then pulls a 5.. I bust on all 4 hands... $800.00 dollar loss and I played every hand right. I had 1 $25.00 chip left and I tossed it the dealer and thanked her for a great 2 hours of game play (another reason I don't get heat when I play because I win nice and I lose nice. I could have kept playing I guess but after taking a hit like that, I thought I would just come back next week and try and again fresh.. On black Friday I played at the same casino and made $500.00 after 90-mins of play. You just got to put in the hours... and build up your bankroll.. You sound like a smart player to me.. I can't even do half deck counts accurately and I have only memorized less than half a dozen index plays so you are way ahead of me.. Variance is a real thing.. No blackjack player can win ALL of the time.
    Pretty much what happend to me. Max bets out then got pair 8s till it was re-split to 4 hands and 3 hands were double play. Then boom dealer gets a 21 lol. Another one was splitting 10s. Same thing happened. So I told myself ill just let go of the splitting 10s index lol. I still trust the math in the long game. But you are right, i need to build my bankroll accordingly.

    Variance is very real. There was one time in just 30 min TC was so high and max bets were played. Ended the shoes with $800 profit then i went home lol.

    I will keep playing and will update you guys with my graph for end of December

  11. #24


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    It had not be the best morning overall. I bought in for $400.00 and I was up and down for over an 90mins and then this hand came up and by that time I was at $845 or something like that.. Call it, whatever, just a feeling or what but I just had a weird vibe with that hand. The dealer even stopped on both hands waiting for me to double and I told her to continue. She even commented that whatever had stopped me from doubling had saved me a lot of cash. Call it dumb luck. Now, what kills me is if had taken that 5 on hand #4 I would have had a 8-7-5 for a total of 20. I just couldn't bear to see if that next card in the show was something OTHER than a 5... Second guessing and what if's...

  12. #25


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    She even commented that whatever had stopped me from doubling had saved me a lot of cash. Call it dumb luck
    The fact that you said your initial bet was $200 strongly suggests a higher true count.
    I’ve said many times - Blackjack is a game of decisions. In the absence of other information, you made the wrong one. Think of it this way - Given the exact scenario occurring 100 times, that the first occurrence was as you’ve stated above, would you be behind or ahead - Again a game of decisions.

    You shouldn’t have lost $800 on the hand - You should have lost $1000 (my approach) or $1200 (Dons approach, the new basic)

  13. #26


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    I was following Ian Anderson's green chip strategy.. On the START of the previous hand the TC had been at 3.5 and I had a $100.00 bet out and I won and parlayed up to $200.00 when the TC was 5, RC 10 with at least a 2 maybe 2-1/2 decks left in the show ( the place I play at cuts to basically 1 deck which is nice, decent penetration ) Overall for green chip play I have been very succuesful with that betting strategy and style of game play. I don't like sitting at a table longer than 2 hours, just enough to get it credited to my comps unless I win big earlier in the game where I play for practice. I then slink off to play some baccarat for awhile then come back or grab a drink and watch some football.. Then come back if I had a good first session and play again. I can't argue against what you are saying.. I do try to play strictly to basic strategy and I really know how important it is to do so. I would be kicking myself even more if I had won all 4 hands and missed out on two opportunities to double that I passed by because I had a 'bad feeling'.. I think it hurts the worst when you do misplay a hand and lose out on an opportunity to win more money than it does to simply lose that is for sure. My bankroll can take the hit and I learn and move on and I have lost more than that before playing at the $100.00 tables but that's another story.. So a question do you think Anderson's Green Chip strategy/betting-game play is wrong or ??? Would like hear any opinions on it?

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