Does anybody get away with splitting 10s regularly or is it something you only do when you know a back off is imminent? I remember reading in Modern Blackjack that most counters opt to just never do it and there’s no index for it in the FELT system.
ALL depends what you are betting? If you are at the $10 table I see ploppies and pro's do it fairly often and no one seems to blink an eye at it because they mostly have $10 to maybe $50.00 dollars out for a bet. Play at a $100.00 table and you are pushing out max table bets on 2 spots and hitting them I would bet anything that the eye in the sky and pit boss are going to be watching you like a hawk and reviewing the tapes.. All depends upon the situation and what you are doing... Either you look like a lucky ploppy or you are a counter that's about to get backed off...
This is my calculation for this particular hand. For an infinite deck, the probability of seeing a T,T vs 6 hand isOriginally Posted by DSchles
16/(169*13)=16/2197.
For a 6-deck shoe with a 75% penetration, the probability of TC>=+4 is about 5%.
So, the probability of splitting a T,T vs 6 at TC>=+4 is
(16/2197)*5%=0.000364, that is, once in every 2746 hands.
If playing at 70 hands per hour, a counter needs to play 2746/70= 39 hours to see a good splitting T,T vs 6 chance.
Last edited by aceside; 10-27-2023 at 02:57 PM.
In your home casinos, don't do it. If you're traveling and you do not intend to return for a spell, do it in the latter part of the deck (where this opportunity is likely to present itself anyway) of your last highly positive shoe before leaving. Then cash out before they have the opportunity to back you off.
I don't quite understand what you're saying. In a 6-deck game with a 75% pen, we will see a Hi-Lo TC of +4 or higher 4.7% of the time. That means we will see it an average of 4.7 times out of every 100 rounds.
If we play 100 rounds per hour, that would imply we'd see it 4.7 times per hour. If it were 70 rounds per hour, then we'd see it an average of 3.3 times.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
All your numbers above are correct. I was referring to the conditions I recently have had. They were all 6-deck and 8-deck shoe games, with a cut card at about two decks from the bottom. In these games, the high TC numbers are not volatile at all. Even worse, they often occur at the end of the shoe and stay high for several rounds in a row until we see the cut card.
Earlier, I reported a possible bug in Wizard’s blackjack hand calculator, but am still not so sure about this part. Specifically, it is about “Split 2s through 10s.” Let me use the default parameters to show you the split EV numbers from this calculator. For the player hand 10, 10 vs. 6, the split EV numbers are:
+0.588509, for SPL-1;
+0.352408, for SPL-2;
+0.506739, for SPL-3.
These number should be the same,regardless of the number of allowed pair splitting. Right?
Of course not! You've been playing BJ how long and don't know that, the more you can split, the greater the edge?? That said, your numbers make no sense at all. You can easily find the right numbers in my appendixes or Wong's.
Don
I've looked up these numbers in your book, Blackjack Attack 3rd Edition. For an 8-deck Hit-17 game in your book, the hand T, T vs. 6 shows these split EV numbers:
+0.588109, for SPL-1;
+0.494813, for SPL-2;
+0.455688, for SPL-3.
However, this decreasing trend of change does not sound correct for me, because logically these three EV numbers should become greater as the number of allowed pair-splitting increases. Please help!
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