I looked up Don's table and found the gain numbers for these three decisions:
Insurance: 0.117%;
T,T vs 5: 0.037%;
T,T vs 6: 0.017%.
So, the ten-splitting gain is the sum of last two numbers. This makes 0.054%, which is almost a half of the insurance gain. The numbers say the ten-splitting decision is important. It is actually more important than the 16 vs T hitting/standing decision.
If you're just asking on whether or not it's important, oh heck yeah it's important. It's worth a whole lot. However the OP wants to last in his local area. Splitting tens on high counts is like pinning a bullseye on your chest. It's a tough pill to swallow, but few counters do this. Even fewer would do so in their local haunts. You're just asking for the boot if you do.
I posted the above numbers to invite Don the author to comment. Actually I don’t quite understand why the ten-splitting of T,T vs 5 is a lot more valuable than that of T,T vs 6, considering the frequency of seeing the former at TC=+5 is a lot less than seeing the latter at TC=+4.
Last edited by aceside; 10-23-2023 at 10:48 PM.
I believe that to assess the true benefit of splitting a pair of tens vs 5/6, you should consult 'The Hi-Lo Card Counting System: A Complete Guide to Index Play'.Originally Posted by aceside
The comparison should be made in terms of SCORE and not EV. Splitting tens vs 5/6 should in no way surpass Insurance or 16 vs T.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
I’d imagine that the relative importance of splitting T,T vs 5/6 hands depends on this particular rule, stand-17 or hit-17. For a hit-17 game, the ten-splitting gain of T,T vs 6 should gain a little more value from that in a stand-17 game because the dealer will bust slightly more under this rule.
Last edited by aceside; 10-23-2023 at 10:53 PM.
I'm sorry, but I don't have access to the book at the moment for reference. It's possible that in H17, TTv6 gains an advantage over S17,
but the same may not hold true for TTv5.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
As is always the case, aceside is talking out of his ass.
Per Wong (Prof BJ, Appendix E), The EV for splitting TTv6 in S17 is 0.567. In H17 it's 0.556.
The reason most casinos went H17 is their EV for hitting a soft 17 is greater than standing on a soft 17.
Speaking of the EV from splitting tens, I just tried Wizard’s Blackjack Hand Calculator and found these interesting numbers. In the Calculator, I set the deck number as 6, the rule as Stand-17, and look at this particular hand of T,T vs 6 for different maximum numbers of pair-splitting:
For SPL-1, Split EV=0.566767;
For SPL-2, Split EV=0.345250;
For SPL-3, Split EV=0.501678.
It looks like there is a bug in this calculator. Cac, can you take a look at this part too?
Last edited by aceside; 10-24-2023 at 09:24 PM.
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