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Thread: Deviation Value

  1. #1


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    Deviation Value

    I like using CVdata Index Generation to see how different rules affect the indices.
    Lately I was wondering if I can see the EV gained from using each individual index. It would be nice to know how much I'm giving up if I decide to simply not bother with some of them. I already decided I'm not bothering with below -1 (because I'd choose to leave the table, or I'd be betting min), and not above +8 (less frequent), but maybe EV would be a better way to make the decision.

    thanks!
    -Asmodeus

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    To accurately do that, run too sims with the differing indices and see the difference. It's not as simple as adding up the differences for each index as they interact.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #3


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    Oh shoot yeah I wasn't thinking of that. Would that issue only apply to split and hit decisions? I can see why it would affect splits since after you split or hit, you then have other decisions to make. For double downs, stand, surrender I think those wouldn't depend on your decisions about any other card combo, since there is nothing else to do in the round once you double, stand, or surrender.

    what does the option for "full report" do? For some reason I was thinking I tried using that awhile ago and remember seeing some list of values for results of either making a decision or not at different true counts. I don't think I used it correctly because I couldn't find the report again after closing it.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    The thing about doubling is you don't get a chance to get a fourth (or fifth) card when it would be helpful. Your odds are calculated for doubling and for not doubling, which may included hitting more than once. To calculate this, you first need to know any additional hit/stand indices that you might run into after hitting. If these do not exist, the answer will be different and the index could change. This is why indices must be generated in a particular order. Splitting is worse in that you have to know what double and hit/stand indices you may end up using after splitting.

    The Full Report will be saved in the Archives under the CVIndex folder.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #5


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    Yes I understand your explanation about doubling. Guess that's part of the reason just brute forcing the results with actual billions of rounds is easier than calculations for these things. It hurts my brain thinking of how complicated that would be lol. I Appreciate your continued support.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Asmodeus View Post
    I like using CVdata Index Generation to see how different rules affect the indices.
    Lately I was wondering if I can see the EV gained from using each individual index. It would be nice to know how much I'm giving up if I decide to simply not bother with some of them. I already decided I'm not bothering with below -1 (because I'd choose to leave the table, or I'd be betting min), and not above +8 (less frequent), but maybe EV would be a better way
    This is exactly what is discussed in the recently published book by Don and me:

    https://www.amazon.ca/Hi-Lo-Card-Cou.../dp/1944877622

    except that the indices are ranked by contribution to SCORE.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    This is exactly what is discussed in the recently published book by Don and me:

    https://www.amazon.ca/Hi-Lo-Card-Cou.../dp/1944877622

    except that the indices are ranked by contribution to SCORE.
    That's cool! If I may ask, why SCORE and not EV? I have an idea about why, but if you worked on a book with 300+ charts using it I'm sure you've put a lot of thought in these decisions and I'm interested in your explanation.

    Does your book base the values on regular indices or Risk Averse indices? Would using Risk Averse Indices increase SCORE further?

    thanks!
    -Asmodeus

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Asmodeus View Post
    If I may ask, why SCORE and not EV?
    SCORE is a metric that accounts not only for EV but for risk (variance), as well. As such, it is a risk-adjusted value that is ideally suited for rating the games.

    Quote Originally Posted by Asmodeus View Post
    Does your book base the values on regular indices or Risk Averse indices? Would using Risk Averse Indices increase SCORE further?
    We used EV-maximizing indices. Yes, using risk-averse indices would increase SCOREs slightly.

    Don

  9. #9


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    We used EV-maximizing indices. Yes, using risk-averse indices would increase SCOREs slightly.

    Don
    EV maximizing gains you only a tad over the course of a career. Some RA plays are also a form of cover - example 8v6 @+1 v RA 8v6 @+3, the former being to easy to pick off due to the large number of 8v6 hands. For the same reason, do not practice RA for 11v10 and 10v9. You can act your way through this and other situations.

    It’s a tangled web we weave……..

  10. #10


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    thank you all. This is mostly confirming how I understand the math behind all this. I think a good read of your books will help. Sounds like BJA3 covers a lot
    -Asmodeus

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    We used EV-maximizing indices. Yes, using risk-averse indices would increase SCOREs slightly.
    We did end up using two risk averse indices for reasons discussed in the book:

    For hole card games:
    10 vs T: +7 (EV maximizing is +4)

    For ENHC games:
    11 vs T: +11 (EV maximizing is +4)

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by Asmodeus View Post
    thank you all. This is mostly confirming how I understand the math behind all this. I think a good read of your books will help. Sounds like BJA3 covers a lot
    -Asmodeus
    I believe that if you are a Hi-Lo player, both books are necessary. Furthermore, I would dare to say that this latest book written by Don and Gronbog can easily be used as a guide for other systems.
    The order of importance of plays is quite general and goes beyond the I18. Not to mention if you come across games with surrender.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

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