No blackjack seems like loser

[Save the Whales]

When i look at 2 cards and don't have blackjack i get the sinking feeling that i lose even when count is very good with big bet. No bj happens on average 20 out of 21 times. Many times i get no blackjack for a very long time. If i never get another blackjack can i win?

Thanks for answers.

[bigplayer]

If you don't have a 19 or better yes, you will lose most of the time with a few exceptions (like 10 or 11)

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[k_c]

When i look at 2 cards and don't have blackjack i get the sinking feeling that i lose even when count is very good with big bet. No bj happens on average 20 out of 21 times. Many times i get no blackjack for a very long time. If i never get another blackjack can i win?

Thanks for answers.

Sample data example -

6 decks (full shoe, no surrender anything)
Rules: dealer hits soft 17, SP1(ace), 1 card to split ace, SP3(non-ace), DAS(non-ace), full peek, bj pays 3 to 2
Player expected value (total dependent strategy, full shoe): -.006182 = -.6182%
Probability of blackjack: .04749
Expected value if player is dealt blackjack: 1.432 = 143.2%

From above data expected value given player does not have blackjack can be computed:

let fsev = full shoe EV = -.006182
let bjev = ev given player is dealt blackjack
let prob_bj = probability of blackjack
let no_bjev = ev given player is not dealt blackjack

no_bjev = (fsev - prob_bj*bjev) / (1 - prob_bj)

Using above values:

no_bjev = (-.006182 - 1.432*.04749) / (1 - .04749)
no_bjev = -.07854 = -7.854%

So the fact that player is not dealt blackjack given no other information means disadvantage is ~7.9% for full shoe. This is inclusive of all other possible hands other than being dealt A-T.

Without calculation, I would guess that in general disadvantage remains high even for a high count.

Your concerns are valid. If you have a period of no blackjacks the chance of being ahead are more remote the longer this period is.

Hope this helps,
k_c

[Bristol]

Even with a favorable score, there is no guarantee that the next hand will be a blackjack. The probability of getting a blackjack in a particular hand is affected by the composition of the remaining cards. To be successful at blackjack, it is important to think long term. If you consistently make optimal decisions based on the score across many hands, you have a better chance of coming out ahead. By the way, check out this to find out about the best games.

[Freightman]

If you consistently make optimal decisions based on the score across many hands, you have a better chance of coming out ahead.

You need a set standard upon which to evaluate. SCORE is that standard upon which you design your betting strategy. SCORE sets the stage for optimal betting. Simulation also allows you to evaluate custom betting strategies different than optimal. SCORE also evaluates for tolerance and risk and thus 2 individual under the simulation can have different ramps, different ror’s etc.

Most sims evaluate under whole true counts. This means that a bet within a true count bucket is the bet for the entire duration of that true count. ramping upwards per true count based on the increase in edge. So, if even at true 1, your true 2 (2.1,2.2,2.3etc.) edge is infinitely greater than true 1 and therefore deserves a bump in unit’s). Your true 3 is double your true 2 edge, therefore your wager is doubled, your true 4 bet is 50% greater than your true 3 edge, so your bet is increased by 50% and so on. Accepted theory says that when your edge is doubled, a less than doubled bet is sub optimal. This is predictable counter behaviour and is good way out the door, especially if you’re perceived as competent and well funded.

Consider half true counts. Consider accepted advanced strategies that will increase your edge. Consider mixing it up with your ramps. You can’t hide the fact of counting, but you can disguise your competence. Other developed skills can further increase your edge. You can look bad, beat the sims and have some fun.

Cant wait for the arguments.

[AmeliaRobertson]

It can be really frustrating, especially when it seems to happen so often. But you know what they say - blackjack is a game of chance. Sometimes luck just doesn't swing in our favor. It can be tough to go a long time without getting a blackjack, but it doesn't mean you can never win. Just keep in mind that the odds will eventually even out. Oh, and by the way, have you ever tried playing blackjack at a live casino? It could be a fun and interactive way to mix things up a bit.

[Freightman]

blackjack is a game of chance

For most players - yes - blackjack is a game of chance. For competent counters, blackjack is a game of decisions. Continuing to make best decisions is your best way to continually make money.

Having said that - yes - blackjacks are an important part of an counter’s edge.

[sondjata]

When i look at 2 cards and don't have blackjack i get the sinking feeling that i lose even when count is very good with big bet. No bj happens on average 20 out of 21 times. Many times i get no blackjack for a very long time. If i never get another blackjack can i win? Thanks for answers.

Yeah, been there and done that many times. In fact my last [losing} session had that for HOURS. The first couple of times it happened I thought I was being cheated. It doesn't help when the dealer gets 3-4 BJ in the same shoe during your max bet high count. Then one day..among others....it happens to you and you get 3 Blackjacks in a row and you realize, this is just how it goes. Follow the math, gird your loins, calm your nerves and play as fast as possible.