Quality of hours vs Quantity of hours - Perspectives

[Freightman]

Really, it depends on goals.

Gruelling multi day marathon driving trips are for the younger crowd and for those that are physically fit. The mistake that many of these people make is the desire to cut expenses to the bare bone - which means unhealthy fast food, sleeping in cars without necessarily having access to shower or laundry facilities. That might be the only way to go for the red chip crowd etc., However, if you’re into healthy black chip area, looking and smelling like a grinding card counter intent on absolutely maximizing revenue at the expense of the house, the house will quickly make the decision to accept your action thinking they can beat you through variance, or boot you if they evaluate you as a real threat, assuming of course you’re not playing a shit hole frightened of bet variance.

I’ve flouted my own philosophies with regards to profits - that being not trying to knock it out of the park every time at bat, rather maximizing revenue over x number of sessions. Notwithstanding resistance to certain ideas, the base idea is longevity by deception. I can’t hide the fact of counting - what I can hide are certain skills pertaining to ramping, deck estimation and optimal play (because, theoretically, I’m not playing optimally). Therefore I’m not a threat until cumulative catches up to me.

These philosophies (for out of town play) among other things include being well rested, accommodation central to play area where I can go for a mid day nap - a decent hotel keeping in mind that I’m not carrying around chump change - being not necessarily well dressed rather comfortably dressed and always clean. It also means a persona of being able to afford that I’m playing - which I can. It means bringing my A game to the table.

Again, bypassing personal theories such as QTC, I think it’s easy enough to beat simulations. I do it all the time. In terms of dollars, I have a low bar desire to hit 1k per day, mid bar desire to hit 2k per day and a high bar average of 3k per day and um really hot - more. My most recent trip has a disappointing 1st day revenue of a paltry $400 after experiencing a disappointing first session quick fair sized loss. Also, let it be known that average out of town trip are shorter than they used to be - fatigue becoming a serious factor on longer trips even with mid day naps. In town, I happily settle for a lesser amount. My goals this year is basically to drum up an extra 25k without going into the kitty to pay for wife, kids, their wives, grandchildren for a nice winter vacation - I have seconded my youngest son to negotiate with his brother the when and where - my wife and will simply follow the crowd. Additional dollars to generate are funding rather wife's secret stash to fund the birthday presents, gifts etc. that I don’t know about and of course my own philosophy if turning wants into needs

Now, analyzing a recent closed thread based by inference not withstanding the crushing 6 hours per day of driving along with an implied 15 hours per week of play time, sleeping, shitting, showering and presumably shaving, a max bet of 2 x 600 was mentioned with implied EV of $400 per hour which, given factors, I deem as being reasonable. Now, let me state categorically that this number can easily be beaten, or matched with far less exposure simply by utilizing well known established strategies and with far less effort.

Goals to achieve are reducing average loss to the inverse of the average win, increasing win percentage and executing advanced strategies at the proper time which assist - my favourite being a form of opposition betting. None of this includes QTC which is another issue.

There is more, but enough for now.

[Gramazeka]

Good post +1. Thank you for your active participation in the life of the forum.

[Freightman]

Good post +1. Thank you for your active participation in the life of the forum.

Appreciate the thought. Honestly, don’t know why I even bother. Mind you, the fan base has been quiet lately, excepting of course the Bugatti driver. .

[davethebuilder]

The house will quickly make the decision to accept your action thinking they can beat you through variance, or boot you if they evaluate you as a real threat.

This is precisely the attitude of Australian casinos regarding Blackjack. They know it's not great and a counter will often be playing a low SCORE game undercapitalised. This can eventually lead to frustration which is a short step away from progression betting in an attempt to recover short term losses due to variance. It almost always ends in tears and I've seen far too much of it. Most of these players would be better off learning proper basic strategy, flat betting and just enjoying the game.

[Freightman]

This is precisely the attitude of Australian casinos regarding Blackjack. They know it's not great and a counter will often be playing a low SCORE game undercapitalised. This can eventually lead to frustration which is a short step away from progression betting in an attempt to recover short term losses due to variance. It almost always ends in tears and I've seen far too much of it. Most of these players would be better off learning proper basic strategy, flat betting and just enjoying the game.

On your vein and to more clearly define (excluding shit holes), the house will come to 1 of 4 (main) conclusions.

1. The counter is not good enough and under capitalized to beat the house - let him play
2. The counter is good enough but undercapitalized - let him play
3. The counter is capitalized but not good enough - let him play
4. The counter is both good enough and capitalized - boot him

I fall under item 3, until cumulative gets me. I also had had an unexpected back off a year or two ago where I was reevaluated from point 3 to point 4. I was told that I had an unacceptable win rate of $25 an hour at a $50 min game - something I did scared them??? I also had both a 3k and 7k loss which was looked at heavily.

[davethebuilder]

Casino management has to answer to company shareholders so long term winning players are not desirable. How much they will tolerate depends on the house but it sounds like you use dual ramps and other methods to confuse the issue, which are useful tools until surveillance works it out, usually with the help of software. The key is to keep changing the ramps and the betting amounts which displays inconsistency but it takes time and practice to master. The trade off is sub optimal play which lowers your win rate. Playing two hands from time to time may also help but it gets noticed.

As we age quality play becomes more important than quantity as you describe but speed is also your friend. Still, older folks are sometimes not as sharp as younger people which may lead to unintentional errors and too many of them will see any advantage slip away. So, you’re relying on your years of experience to get across the line but you should also keep your sessions short as this will help you stay under the radar for longer especially if you play on different shifts. Regardless of age, quality and quantity of play what is important is your cumulative overall advantage which is derived from your average bet multiplied by the number of hands played calculated over many sessions.

[Freightman]

davethebuilder said

but it sounds like you use dual ramps and other methods to confuse the issue, which are useful tools until surveillance works it out, usually with the help of software. The key is to keep changing the ramps and the betting amounts which displays inconsistency but it takes time and practice to master.

Also, a variable single ramp

The trade off is sub optimal play which lowers your win rate.

Just throw in a bit of that TLC, or is that QTC - results are surprisingly strong

Still, older folks are sometimes not as sharp as younger people which may lead to unintentional errors and too many of them will see any advantage slip away

As sharp as ever. Fatigue becomes my enemy - 2 types, one of which I will play through and the other which will destroy my play. I recognize it’s onset and will quickly stop play for that rejuvenating nap

So, you’re relying on your years of experience to get across the line

Yes, and as the old bull said to the young bull - let’s walk down the hill and get them all

especially if you play on different shifts.

I’ll play 2-3 sessions out of town - never graveyard. At home, I play when I’m strongest

what is important is your cumulative overall advantage which is derived from your average bet multiplied by the number of hands played calculated over many sessions.

Yes, and over many posts described many different ways, even within this thread, overall advantage can be improved by developing advanced skill sets - usually not executed during first shoe of hand shuffle or first shoe of alternating shoes from ASM - Pattern recognition.

[dalmatian]

@ freightman

I'm back to working at dominoes. I can't count cards full time on the road. Max 2 weeks. Then 2 weeks delivering pizza. 12 trips a year is about 100k. Plus 26 weeks delivering pizza at 80 hours a week is about 40k.

150k year.

And I. Bordrlrinf retarded.

[dalmatian]

Converted my car into a stealth camper. Ripped put all the seats, installed a bed and water system and electric station for power. I live off fast food when imon the road. Don't shower in days, wear wrinkled walmart clothes to high limit. Card counting is literally the worst thing ever.

[dalmatian]

I don't have a girlfriend.