Advanced Strategy (ace tracking) - influence of Ace neighbors pre/post shuffle

[The_Patriot]

Hi there,

I've pondered upon the following ace tracking method, one that I have not seen explored previously and perhaps rightly so, yet I'd like to explore this in further depth and understand if anyone else has come across it.

This is an ace tracking method which revolves around the following conjecture:

Registering the neighbor of an ace in game 1 can provide edge-worthy information in game 2

The assumption made:
- Deck shuffles vary in their degrees of perfection. Some will achieve 100% shuffle randomness while others may fall short at lower percentages (~90%). This means clumps of the same cards persisting into the next game.
*Defining shuffle randomness as the amount to which the order of the cards in the post-shuffled deck is different to that of the cards in the pre-shuffled deck.

I wonder whether there is any statistical information towards the shuffle randomness value of common shuffles types? Do most casino shuffles truly reach the 100% mark? If not, how bad can they be?
On the subject, I found this article (block scripts if you want to bypass pw) which is of interest stating that:

Two decks should be shuffled nine times, and six decks should be shuffled 12 times, which is unheard of in the casinos.

Expanding on the initial conjecture, the method is not really intended for human play unless you are a rainman. It is to gain an understanding of whether there is an edge to be had in the case of a sub-optimal shuffle game and whether it is worthy to factor into optimal play.

Let me provide an example for further clarity:

Say game 1 is played and you register the way cards are collected into the discard tray - particularly the cards that sit on top of the aces in the tray. It's important to register the card suit and value. The deck get's shuffled in preparation for the next game. Game 2 starts, rounds proceed and a point is reached within which you spot that ace neighbor as the last card dealt. Assuming a probability that the ace has stuck to it's neighbor, could there be an argument to optimize gameplay action based on the fact that the next card coming out of the shoe could be the ace?

Let me reiterate, the above is not intended for real use due to it's complexity but for mathematical/simulation purposes.

I'm keen to hear from anyone with experience within shuffle tracking on the thoughts laid out above.

Thanks,
The Patriot

[DSchles]

Congratulations! You've discovered ace sequencing! :-)

Don

[21forme]

Let me reiterate, the above is not intended for real us

A bunch of years ago, I was the BP for the world's best ace sequencer at the fountain place in LV. They changed the shuffle after our play.

[The_Patriot]

lol Thanks Don! I feel silly now

Do you have any favorite resources on this topic that you'd like to point me towards? or perhaps any personal thoughts on the subject? I'm curious to know whether you think it's an impactful technique.

The Patriot

[The_Patriot]

wow, sounds like you're at rainman status. In your experience to do you find most shuffles to be difficult now or still some exploit-worthy?

I guess this is one of those harder trade-off decisions for casinos as they'll want to minimize shuffle times as much as possible to keep the money games rolling, and yet protect from eagle-eyed sequencer players.

[Freightman]

Patriot said

Say game 1 is played and you register the way cards are collected into the discard tray - particularly the cards that sit on top of the aces in the tray.

Patriot then said

Game 2 starts, rounds proceed and a point is reached within which you spot that ace neighbor as the last card dealt. Assuming a probability that the ace has stuck to it's neighbor, could there be an argument to optimize gameplay action based on the fact that the next card coming out of the shoe could be the ace?

I have no data to substantiate the following comment - simply an observation made with a hypothesis thrown in. Consider at your risk. ASM randomness varies on the age of cards within the ASM. In other words, sequencing reliability increases with older cards. I am familiar with many casinos where cards are used for at least 1 week and sometimes used up to two weeks. Therefore, sequencing reliability is reduced in large gaming destinations where cards are replaced frequently, sometimes in as little as 4 hours and increases when the time element between replacing cards increases. I know if many stores that do not change for at least a week, and sometimes 2 weeks.

I have no hypothesis on randomness of hand shuffled shoes with professional dealers. However, I’ve noted many poor dealers where fair sized slugs remain unshuffled shoe to shoe.

[Freightman]

A bunch of years ago, I was the BP for the world's best ace sequencer at the fountain place in LV. They changed the shuffle after our play.

Asian fellow?

[21forme]

Email sent.

[Freightman]

Just occurred to me - additional info on post 6 - regards card thickness between old and new cards - older cards will let’s say 6 decks will have very slightly higher discard tray height varying by dryness or humidity and thus requires very slightly altered deck estimations - same issue potentially affects deck pen on notched shoes which on double deck is a far more significant factor - further, especially on older cards and notched dd or 6d shoes, dealers hand pressure at top (heavier pressure reducing deck pen, lighter pressure increasing deck pen) can alter effective number of cards played.

Norm, if you view this as sensitive (some may consider it so), help yourself with the delete button.

[Ole]

Do you have any favorite resources on this topic that you'd like to point me towards?
The Patriot

I suppose the best starting point is Arnold Snyder's Shuffle Tracking Cookbook. James Grosjean also considers it as a major tool in his second book. Dai Zilang presents an excellent treatise on plug tracking in his Winning Formula, if you can read Mandarin. A few other authors include part of a chapter on the topic.

Ken Uston and Tommy Hyland have discussed using key card combos that precede the appearance of an Ace. The MIT team briefly experimented with it.

The trick today is finding a real hand shuffle, or an ASM with which you've developed some expedience.

Cheers,
Ole

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[aceside]

I suppose the best starting point is Arnold Snyder's Shuffle Tracking Cookbook.

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Is this reliable?

[DSchles]

Is this reliable?

Let me get this straight: You're asking if the bible of the technique, written by one of the all-time legends of the game, is reliable? Sigh.

Don

[aceside]

If that’s the case, I’d like to get a copy to read into it. Is there a pdf copy to read online? I only read Norm’s book chapter about this topic.