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Thread: stand 16 v 10

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    stand 16 v 10

    I know from table 7.3 (bja3, pg.99) that always standing on 16 v 10 will cost the $100 bettor $2.65 per hour. Is there an easy way to figure out the cost of standing down to TC -1, -2?

  2. #2


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    It will obviously be a little more, but not all that much. If you look at the graph of the play, the differences between hitting and standing, down to -2, are virtually inconsequential, particularly considering that you're likely to have a minimum bet out at the moment that you stand.

    Don

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    "It will obviously be a little more, but not all that much."

    Shouldn't the cost be a little less?

    When I say standing down to TC-2, I mean that I will be hitting 16 v10 at anything worse than TC-2, like I'm supposed to. Given that I will be standing in neutral and positive counts and hitting at counts lower than TC-2 where I'm more likely to make the hand, shouldn't it cost a little (or a lot) less than always standing ($2.65 per hr)? I would only be playing the hand wrong at TC-1 and TC-2.

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    There's something known as "counter's basic strategy" which calls for standing on all 16vT to look less obvious. I don't have a reference for you (Don?), but always standing makes more sense than always hitting, as your incorrect play will always be with a minimum bet out, so the overall cost will be less.

    (edited for typo)
    Last edited by 21forme; 03-27-2023 at 06:48 AM.

  5. #5


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    I think the OP wants to know the cost of standing at TC>=-2 and hitting below -2.

  6. #6
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    This question is tricky. The answer depends on how you obtained your HiLo TC numbers. Did you floor or truncate?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    I think the OP wants to know the cost of standing at TC>=-2 and hitting below -2.
    Yes, I misunderstood. Sorry. I actually hesitated when reading, to see that I wasn't doing it backwards and then worded my answer incorrectly anyway.

    Don

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    I think the OP wants to know the cost of standing at TC>=-2 and hitting below -2.
    Correct. Is there an easy way to get a rough estimate? It seems always standing is a little too costly for cover given the frequency of the hand. But, it also seems to be one of the major things they notice/look for (sometimes hitting and sometimes standing 16 v 10).

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by roliin View Post
    Correct. Is there an easy way to get a rough estimate? It seems always standing is a little too costly for cover given the frequency of the hand. But, it also seems to be one of the major things they notice/look for (sometimes hitting and sometimes standing 16 v 10).
    Well, if you are counting using a system like Hi-Lo, you should simply run two simulations, one with the 16vT index set to 0 and the other with the 16vT index set to -2. Then you compare both SCOREs and calculate the cost. You can use CVData for this task.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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    It’s obvious that there isn’t very much probability for TC<=-3, so your cost of wrongfully playing this 16v.10 hand is still about $2.65 per hour. What is more important is the hit/stand critical TC point, though. I always use TC=+1 for hit/stand, but most people just say TC=+0.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I always use TC=+1 for hit/stand,
    Why do you prefer to use the wrong number?

    Don

  12. #12
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    Firstly, I don't know how to calculate the exact value for the TC hit/stand decision, but I roughly recall some literature says it is a positive number around zero. Secondly, I simulated this 16v.10 decision millions of times using Phil's simulator and found it was TC=+1. I still need confirmation on this part.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I always use TC=+1 for hit/stand, but most people just say TC=+0.
    If players don't know the distribution of 8, 9 and ace so far, Accurate Zen level 1 (vanilla Zen) has this index at +0.3 according to my simulation. So people who use +0 to play this hand will be right more times than you who has +1 as the threshold to play this hand.
    Last edited by BJGenius007; 03-27-2023 at 05:37 PM.

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