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Thread: first card values

  1. #1


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    first card values

    I haven't posted in many years. Hello to all.I'm seeking info on how the count affects the first card values published in Griffin's Theory of Blackjack...and elsewhere..I assume the published values apply only when the count is zero. Thanks for any input you offer.

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckybaby View Post
    I haven't posted in many years. Hello to all.I'm seeking info on how the count affects the first card values published in Griffin's Theory of Blackjack...and elsewhere..I assume the published values apply only when the count is zero. Thanks for any input you offer.
    chuckybaby,

    See the first graph on this post:

    https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

    The graph shows the probabilities for the dealer's upcard as a function of the HiLo TC for a 6D, H17 game with 75% pen. Naturally, the same probabilities apply for the player's cards as well. Thus, at a TC of +5, the prob. of an A is about 8.75%, X is about 35%, etc.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  3. #3


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    Dog Hand...as always your input is invaluable...interesting info in those remarkable graphs but not quite what I need...

    For example, an ace as a player's first card gives me an advantage of 52% at a Hilo count of zero, but how does that advantage change when the Hilo count varies away from zero? Do I simply adjust the 52% figure with the advantage or disadvantage of the Hilo count, or does the 52% figure vary in some other way as the Hilo count changes ??

  4. #4


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    I think the OP was looking for the player EDGE when his first card is each of the ranks, not the probability of receiving that card.

    Don

    P.S. Posted before I saw the above, but obviously, yes, what I said.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckybaby View Post
    Dog Hand...as always your input is invaluable...interesting info in those remarkable graphs but not quite what I need...

    For example, an ace as a player's first card gives me an advantage of 52% at a Hilo count of zero, but how does that advantage change when the Hilo count varies away from zero? Do I simply adjust the 52% figure with the advantage or disadvantage of the Hilo count, or does the 52% figure vary in some other way as the Hilo count changes ??

    6 decks, S17, NDAS, SP1....

    HiLo RC = +9, 156 cards remain
    Ace first card: ~+53.7%

    Code:
    Number of decks:  6     Compute mode:  Optimal
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
    Cards remaining: 156   Running count: 9   Player's first card: 1
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    Computing overall EV (in percent) for input rules...please wait
    
    
    Overall EV given no knowledge of dealer's up card:  51.91223
    Overall EV given knowledge of dealer's up card:  53.67672
            EV versus up card of 1:  12.84774
            EV versus up card of 2:  64.52285
            EV versus up card of 3:  67.24533
            EV versus up card of 4:  71.11658
            EV versus up card of 5:  76.07983
            EV versus up card of 6:  78.51529
            EV versus up card of 7:  69.65420
            EV versus up card of 8:  62.97386
            EV versus up card of 9:  54.01511
            EV versus up card of 10:  37.97013
    HiLo RC = +3, 52 cards remain
    Ace first card: ~+55.3%

    Code:
    Number of decks:  6     Compute mode:  Optimal
    Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
    Cards remaining: 52   Running count: 3   Player's first card: 1
    No subgroup (removals) are defined
    
    Computing overall EV (in percent) for input rules...please wait
    
    
    Overall EV given no knowledge of dealer's up card:  53.21804
    Overall EV given knowledge of dealer's up card:  55.31381
            EV versus up card of 1:  12.75225
            EV versus up card of 2:  65.91510
            EV versus up card of 3:  68.57217
            EV versus up card of 4:  73.83142
            EV versus up card of 5:  79.93252
            EV versus up card of 6:  80.44187
            EV versus up card of 7:  70.27123
            EV versus up card of 8:  63.49041
            EV versus up card of 9:  54.61628
            EV versus up card of 10:  38.41389
    k_c

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckybaby View Post
    Dog Hand...as always your input is invaluable...interesting info in those remarkable graphs but not quite what I need...

    For example, an ace as a player's first card gives me an advantage of 52% at a Hilo count of zero, but how does that advantage change when the Hilo count varies away from zero? Do I simply adjust the 52% figure with the advantage or disadvantage of the Hilo count, or does the 52% figure vary in some other way as the Hilo count changes ??
    Actually the 52% advantage is off the top, which is not the same as a TC of zero. On the other hand, the TOB figures correspond to SD.
    Regarding your question about what happens to the advantage as the TCs vary, the answer is that as the TCs increase the advantage also increases.
    Code:
    Example: 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS
    
    Off the top: When I know that one of my 2 received cards is an Ace, the advantage is 50.79%. If instead of an Ace there were a ten, the advantage would be 14.34%.
    
    Let us now consider a TC of +5 (Hi-Lo):
    Advantage of an Ace = 52.84%
    Advantage of a Ten  = 16.04%
    
    Let us now consider a TC of -5 (Hi-Lo):
    Advantage of an Ace = 43.88%
    Advantage of a Ten  = 9.50%
    
    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  7. #7
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    A normal counting system, such as HiLo, is used to estimate the edge for the unseen cards.

    Now the game is a little different. After shuffling, five cards are drawn. I can see these cards. My first card is drawn from these five cards randomly. The rest of the four cards are burned. Then the cards are dealt and the game is played as usual.
    Common 6D rules.


    My question is, when I count these 5 cards, should I use HiLo? Or should I use a system different from a normal counting system?
    Means a counting system for the first card of my hand.


  8. #8
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    Use whatever counting system you are using and include these cards as seen cards. It's a clever gimmick. But, this only makes sense for heads up. Is it a machine?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  9. #9
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    Yes, machine.
    My thought is that for normal blackjack edge estimation, an Ace is worth less than two Tens.
    For the first card advantage, an Ace is worth about 4 times as much as a Ten.
    Last edited by peterlee; 03-23-2023 at 07:07 PM.

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    A normal counting system, such as HiLo, is used to estimate the edge for the unseen cards.
    Now the game is a little different. After shuffling, five cards are drawn. I can see these cards. My first card is drawn from these five cards randomly. The rest of the four cards are burned. Then the cards are dealt and the game is played as usual.
    Common 6D rules.
    The question here is simple: Do you place your bet before or after receiving your first card?
    Because if you have the option of placing your bet later, it is obvious that the ideal would be to place a higher bet if the card received is an Ace or a Ten and a minimum bet if it is not.

    My question is, when I count these 5 cards, should I use HiLo? Or should I use a system different from a normal counting system?
    Means a counting system for the first card of my hand.
    Why? You should continue using the system you normally use.

    Sincerely,
    Cac


  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post


    The question here is simple: Do you place your bet before or after receiving your first card?
    Because if you have the option of placing your bet later, it is obvious that the ideal would be to place a higher bet if the card received is an Ace or a Ten and a minimum bet if it is not.



    Why? You should continue using the system you normally use.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

    I place my bet before receiving my first card.

    But my first card is from the five cards drew, that is, one from the five cards randomly.

    For example, the five cards are AA555, assume player's first card EV A=51% 5=-19%
    For any blackjack counting system, I should bet minimum.
    But the actual EV for the first card is 0.4*51%+0.6*-19%=+9%, before I place my bet.
    +++

    Let's change to a new game, no more blackjack.
    Each round drawing one card, bet 100. The win or loss amount depends on the card drawn, as shown in the table below.
    Penatration half the shoe.
    What counting system should I use?

    A T 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
    win / lose 51 15 -1 -8 -18 -20 -19 -18 -15 -13
    Last edited by peterlee; 03-24-2023 at 11:27 AM.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    I place my bet before receiving my first card.

    But my first card is from the five cards drew, that is, one from the five cards randomly.

    For example, the five cards are AA555, assume player's first card EV A=51% 5=-19%
    For any blackjack counting system, I should bet minimum.
    But the actual EV for the first card is 0.4*51%+0.6*-19%=+9%, before I place my bet.
    +++
    Now I understand what you want to do. The correct way is the one you used in the example but you could use the following system:
    -4 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 -1 (from A to T) which would give you a correlation of 0.95.
    Hi-Lo can also be used but the correlation would be lower: 0.82
    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post


    The question here is simple: Do you place your bet before or after receiving your first card?
    Because if you have the option of placing your bet later, it is obvious that the ideal would be to place a higher bet if the card received is an Ace or a Ten and a minimum bet if it is not.



    Why? You should continue using the system you normally use.

    Sincerely,
    Cac

    Better yet, if you know your first card is a 2-9, DO NOT EVEN PLAY THE HAND!

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