1. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Originally Posted by Cacarulo

The question here is simple: Do you place your bet before or after receiving your first card?
Because if you have the option of placing your bet later, it is obvious that the ideal would be to place a higher bet if the card received is an Ace or a Ten and a minimum bet if it is not.

Why? You should continue using the system you normally use.

Sincerely,
Cac

I place my bet before receiving my first card.

But my first card is from the five cards drew, that is, one from the five cards randomly.

For example, the five cards are AA555, assume player's first card EV A=51% 5=-19%
For any blackjack counting system, I should bet minimum.
But the actual EV for the first card is 0.4*51%+0.6*-19%=+9%, before I place my bet.
+++

Let's change to a new game, no more blackjack.
Each round drawing one card, bet 100. The win or loss amount depends on the card drawn, as shown in the table below.
Penatration half the shoe.
What counting system should I use?

 A T 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 win / lose 51 15 -1 -8 -18 -20 -19 -18 -15 -13

2. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Originally Posted by peterlee
I place my bet before receiving my first card.

But my first card is from the five cards drew, that is, one from the five cards randomly.

For example, the five cards are AA555, assume player's first card EV A=51% 5=-19%
For any blackjack counting system, I should bet minimum.
But the actual EV for the first card is 0.4*51%+0.6*-19%=+9%, before I place my bet.
+++
Now I understand what you want to do. The correct way is the one you used in the example but you could use the following system:
-4 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 -1 (from A to T) which would give you a correlation of 0.95.
Hi-Lo can also be used but the correlation would be lower: 0.82
Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cac

3. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Originally Posted by Cacarulo

The question here is simple: Do you place your bet before or after receiving your first card?
Because if you have the option of placing your bet later, it is obvious that the ideal would be to place a higher bet if the card received is an Ace or a Ten and a minimum bet if it is not.

Why? You should continue using the system you normally use.

Sincerely,
Cac

Better yet, if you know your first card is a 2-9, DO NOT EVEN PLAY THE HAND!

4. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Originally Posted by Cacarulo
Now I understand what you want to do. The correct way is the one you used in the example but you could use the following system:
-4 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 -1 (from A to T) which would give you a correlation of 0.95.
Hi-Lo can also be used but the correlation would be lower: 0.82
Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cac
Thanks so much!

5. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
[QUOTE=peterlee;308882]I place my bet before receiving my first card.

But my first card is from the five cards drew, that is, one from the five cards randomly.

For example, the five cards are AA555, assume player's first card EV A=51% 5=-19%
For any blackjack counting system, I should bet minimum.
But the actual EV for the first card is 0.4*51%+0.6*-19%=+9%, before I place my bet.
+++

Hi Hong Kong Robert!...this is the preacher responding...IMHO, the responses you've received indicate that you've not expressed the question clearly...
You are perfectly correct in assigning the first card values averaged over the 5 cards...Hilo count doesn't enter it , so forget the Hilo count (especially if it is a CSM machine. Your advantage is simply the average of the 5 first card values

6. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Sorry for late response k_c..

Thanks for your interest...I assume you have simmed it yourself...interesting that the TC at different depths (156, 52) give different advantages.
I suppose to get the complete picture I would have to sim every first card at different Hilo counts and also at different penetrations.

7. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Sorry for late response, Cac...

I assume you have simmed it yourself...and thanks for that...I am surprised that there is such a strong effect by the Hilo count on the first card values.
As I mentioned to k_c, it looks like I have to sim all of the combinations of Hilo counts, penetrations and first card values to get the complete picture!!!

8. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Originally Posted by chuckybaby
Sorry for late response k_c..

Thanks for your interest...I assume you have simmed it yourself...interesting that the TC at different depths (156, 52) give different advantages.
I suppose to get the complete picture I would have to sim every first card at different Hilo counts and also at different penetrations.

Not a sim. I modified my combinatorial analyzer to compute based on a counting system. Basic input is running count and pen to compute shoe estimate. After that it computes modeled after my normal CA.

k_c

9. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Originally Posted by peterlee
Thanks so much!
You're welcome.

Cac

10. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
Originally Posted by chuckybaby
Sorry for late response, Cac...

I assume you have simmed it yourself...and thanks for that...I am surprised that there is such a strong effect by the Hilo count on the first card values.
As I mentioned to k_c, it looks like I have to sim all of the combinations of Hilo counts, penetrations and first card values to get the complete picture!!!
No simulation, just CA.

Sincerely,
Cac

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