first card values

[chuckybaby]

I haven't posted in many years. Hello to all.I'm seeking info on how the count affects the first card values published in Griffin's Theory of Blackjack...and elsewhere..I assume the published values apply only when the count is zero. Thanks for any input you offer.

[Dog Hand]

I haven't posted in many years. Hello to all.I'm seeking info on how the count affects the first card values published in Griffin's Theory of Blackjack...and elsewhere..I assume the published values apply only when the count is zero. Thanks for any input you offer.

chuckybaby,

See the first graph on this post:

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

The graph shows the probabilities for the dealer's upcard as a function of the HiLo TC for a 6D, H17 game with 75% pen. Naturally, the same probabilities apply for the player's cards as well. Thus, at a TC of +5, the prob. of an A is about 8.75%, X is about 35%, etc.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[chuckybaby]

Dog Hand...as always your input is invaluable...interesting info in those remarkable graphs but not quite what I need...

For example, an ace as a player's first card gives me an advantage of 52% at a Hilo count of zero, but how does that advantage change when the Hilo count varies away from zero? Do I simply adjust the 52% figure with the advantage or disadvantage of the Hilo count, or does the 52% figure vary in some other way as the Hilo count changes ??

[DSchles]

I think the OP was looking for the player EDGE when his first card is each of the ranks, not the probability of receiving that card.

Don

P.S. Posted before I saw the above, but obviously, yes, what I said.

[k_c]

Dog Hand...as always your input is invaluable...interesting info in those remarkable graphs but not quite what I need...

For example, an ace as a player's first card gives me an advantage of 52% at a Hilo count of zero, but how does that advantage change when the Hilo count varies away from zero? Do I simply adjust the 52% figure with the advantage or disadvantage of the Hilo count, or does the 52% figure vary in some other way as the Hilo count changes ??

6 decks, S17, NDAS, SP1....

HiLo RC = +9, 156 cards remain
Ace first card: ~+53.7%

Number of decks:  6     Compute mode:  Optimal
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
Cards remaining: 156   Running count: 9   Player's first card: 1
No subgroup (removals) are defined

Computing overall EV (in percent) for input rules...please wait


Overall EV given no knowledge of dealer's up card:  51.91223
Overall EV given knowledge of dealer's up card:  53.67672
        EV versus up card of 1:  12.84774
        EV versus up card of 2:  64.52285
        EV versus up card of 3:  67.24533
        EV versus up card of 4:  71.11658
        EV versus up card of 5:  76.07983
        EV versus up card of 6:  78.51529
        EV versus up card of 7:  69.65420
        EV versus up card of 8:  62.97386
        EV versus up card of 9:  54.01511
        EV versus up card of 10:  37.97013

HiLo RC = +3, 52 cards remain
Ace first card: ~+55.3%

Number of decks:  6     Compute mode:  Optimal
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
Cards remaining: 52   Running count: 3   Player's first card: 1
No subgroup (removals) are defined

Computing overall EV (in percent) for input rules...please wait


Overall EV given no knowledge of dealer's up card:  53.21804
Overall EV given knowledge of dealer's up card:  55.31381
        EV versus up card of 1:  12.75225
        EV versus up card of 2:  65.91510
        EV versus up card of 3:  68.57217
        EV versus up card of 4:  73.83142
        EV versus up card of 5:  79.93252
        EV versus up card of 6:  80.44187
        EV versus up card of 7:  70.27123
        EV versus up card of 8:  63.49041
        EV versus up card of 9:  54.61628
        EV versus up card of 10:  38.41389

k_c

[Cacarulo]

Dog Hand...as always your input is invaluable...interesting info in those remarkable graphs but not quite what I need...

For example, an ace as a player's first card gives me an advantage of 52% at a Hilo count of zero, but how does that advantage change when the Hilo count varies away from zero? Do I simply adjust the 52% figure with the advantage or disadvantage of the Hilo count, or does the 52% figure vary in some other way as the Hilo count changes ??

Actually the 52% advantage is off the top, which is not the same as a TC of zero. On the other hand, the TOB figures correspond to SD.
Regarding your question about what happens to the advantage as the TCs vary, the answer is that as the TCs increase the advantage also increases.

Example: 6D,S17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS

Off the top: When I know that one of my 2 received cards is an Ace, the advantage is 50.79%. If instead of an Ace there were a ten, the advantage would be 14.34%.

Let us now consider a TC of +5 (Hi-Lo):
Advantage of an Ace = 52.84%
Advantage of a Ten  = 16.04%

Let us now consider a TC of -5 (Hi-Lo):
Advantage of an Ace = 43.88%
Advantage of a Ten  = 9.50%

Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cac

[peterlee]

A normal counting system, such as HiLo, is used to estimate the edge for the unseen cards.

Now the game is a little different. After shuffling, five cards are drawn. I can see these cards. My first card is drawn from these five cards randomly. The rest of the four cards are burned. Then the cards are dealt and the game is played as usual.
Common 6D rules.


My question is, when I count these 5 cards, should I use HiLo? Or should I use a system different from a normal counting system?
Means a counting system for the first card of my hand.

[Norm]

Use whatever counting system you are using and include these cards as seen cards. It's a clever gimmick. But, this only makes sense for heads up. Is it a machine?

[peterlee]

Yes, machine.
My thought is that for normal blackjack edge estimation, an Ace is worth less than two Tens.
For the first card advantage, an Ace is worth about 4 times as much as a Ten.

[Cacarulo]

A normal counting system, such as HiLo, is used to estimate the edge for the unseen cards.
Now the game is a little different. After shuffling, five cards are drawn. I can see these cards. My first card is drawn from these five cards randomly. The rest of the four cards are burned. Then the cards are dealt and the game is played as usual.
Common 6D rules.

The question here is simple: Do you place your bet before or after receiving your first card?
Because if you have the option of placing your bet later, it is obvious that the ideal would be to place a higher bet if the card received is an Ace or a Ten and a minimum bet if it is not.

My question is, when I count these 5 cards, should I use HiLo? Or should I use a system different from a normal counting system?
Means a counting system for the first card of my hand.

Why? You should continue using the system you normally use.

Sincerely,
Cac