ENHC surrender 88 vs 10 or A

[Cacarulo]

The 7,7 surrender index is +2, not +3.

Don

Are you sure Don about this? For 6D,ENHC,SPL3,LS I'm getting "-1" for the surrender index.
Note that BS says to surrender.

77vT
Standing  =  -57.16568050051265%
Hitting   =  -51.49131857625893%
Doubling  = -103.48841730862026%
Splitting =  -77.95618196166794%
Surrender =  -50.00000000000000%

+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
|     TC     |      Probability      |        Standing       |        Hitting        |        Doubling       |        Splitting      | 1 | 2 |
+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
|         13 |   0.00004918113987484 |  -0.65513586054665640 |  -0.65934054854100166 |  -1.31868109708200332 |  -1.02193424391275012 | R | S |
|         12 |   0.00009528802310021 |  -0.64747235150598414 |  -0.64934898184126144 |  -1.29869796368252288 |  -1.00140411367157944 | R | S |
|         11 |   0.00022030456054112 |  -0.64001098074574470 |  -0.63936413224542776 |  -1.27872826449085553 |  -0.98139342340944513 | R | H |
|         10 |   0.00044669488001704 |  -0.63277116256821120 |  -0.62919101392171628 |  -1.25838202784343256 |  -0.96193791595236233 | R | H |
|          9 |   0.00090553571132447 |  -0.62573725653321011 |  -0.61895342704953493 |  -1.23790685409906986 |  -0.94297157417124078 | R | H |
|          8 |   0.00178681713232004 |  -0.61891112760837086 |  -0.60856387415778357 |  -1.21712774831556714 |  -0.92446077254030878 | R | H |
|          7 |   0.00335585576980620 |  -0.61231405986982934 |  -0.59810285047958911 |  -1.19620570095917822 |  -0.90647414105315383 | R | H |
|          6 |   0.00609790085803137 |  -0.60608417010786686 |  -0.58768992338332937 |  -1.17537984676665874 |  -0.88939011271705015 | R | H |
|          5 |   0.01121562142596041 |  -0.60002300190805447 |  -0.57714614292388289 |  -1.15429228584776578 |  -0.87265978958217516 | R | H |
|          4 |   0.01974806127380787 |  -0.59427633876367858 |  -0.56654211701101520 |  -1.13308423402203040 |  -0.85666167631921109 | R | H |
|          3 |   0.03473402679886555 |  -0.58879320354071274 |  -0.55576086391880986 |  -1.11192729487700537 |  -0.84074001670161358 | R | H |
|          2 |   0.06104036524316535 |  -0.58363241600632176 |  -0.54455111731612638 |  -1.09075346264876205 |  -0.82406363494080737 | R | H |
|          1 |   0.11047331143280217 |  -0.57867842424897409 |  -0.53325336446906058 |  -1.06944088781744484 |  -0.80664149238712179 | R | H |
|          0 |   0.23473474578323381 |  -0.57369724133226663 |  -0.52114911519171203 |  -1.04660491979659120 |  -0.78828079481625535 | R | H |
|         -1 |   0.21114571608455926 |  -0.56978274853396793 |  -0.51093442223509178 |  -1.02749502336470466 |  -0.77262372353259146 | R | H |
|         -2 |   0.13521587918273845 |  -0.56582516386457538 |  -0.49987741802541125 |  -1.00748734803108508 |  -0.75534109391477799 |   | H |
|         -3 |   0.07350057638861991 |  -0.56187320684918240 |  -0.48787593187154193 |  -0.98595251208147394 |  -0.73684062971725206 |   | H |
+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+

Sincerely,
Cac

[Ole]

True for LS.
And the indices for ES and ES10 are a bit lower.

Sent from my LM-K500 using Tapatalk

[DSchles]

Are you sure Don about this? For 6D,ENHC,SPL3,LS I'm getting "-1" for the surrender index.
Note that BS says to surrender.

You seem to be referring to ES, but I didn't see anything in the discussion that mentioned that. When the OP said he'd normally surrender 14 vs. T at +3, that was further evidence to me that he was talking about late surrender.

More importantly, did you get the book?

Don

[Cacarulo]

You seem to be referring to ES, but I didn't see anything in the discussion that mentioned that. When the OP said he'd normally surrender 14 vs. T at +3, that was further evidence to me that he was talking about late surrender.

More importantly, did you get the book?

Don

I was referring to LS and unfortunately I didn't get the book yet

Sincerely,
Cac

[k_c]

Are you sure Don about this? For 6D,ENHC,SPL3,LS I'm getting "-1" for the surrender index.
Note that BS says to surrender.

77vT
Standing  =  -57.16568050051265%
Hitting   =  -51.49131857625893%
Doubling  = -103.48841730862026%
Splitting =  -77.95618196166794%
Surrender =  -50.00000000000000%

Sincerely,
Cac

The late surrender EV = -.5388, not -.5. Why? If dealer has BJ player cannot surrender and loses 1 unit. Player can surrender if dealer doesn't have BJ in which case loss = .5 units.

Early surrender EV = -.5 since player can surrender whether or not dealer has BJ.

My approximate indexes at various pens:
A graph of the values would likely smoothen the values a little by use of interpolation.
************************************************** ****************************************

7-7 versus 10, 6 decks ENHC (LS = late surrender, ES = early surrender)

Cards remaining (before up card)      LS (after up card)           ES (after up card)

286 = 5 1/2 decks                     RC >= +13; TC ~ 2.4          RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.3 
260 = 5 decks                         RC >= +11; TC ~ +2.2         RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.4
208 = 4 decks                         RC >= +9; TC ~ +2.3          RC >= -5; TC ~ -1.3
156 = 3 decks                         RC >= +7; TC ~ +2.3;         RC >= -4; TC ~ -1.3
104 = 2 decks                         RC >= +5; TC ~ +2.5;         RC >= -2; TC ~ -1.0
52 = 1 deck                           RC >= +3; TC ~ +3;           RC >= -1; TC ~ -1
26 = 1/2 deck                         RC >= +2; TC ~ +4;           RC >= 0; TC ~ 0

************************************************** ****************************************

Not to disparage TC but the goalposts are movable when a constant TC index is assumed as statistically best.

I just included a couple of pages on my website to show this graphically using overall EV for HiLo and KO where graphs for RC and TC are generated from the exact same data.

http://www.bjstrat.net/HiLo_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html
http://www.bjstrat.net/KO_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html

k_c

[Cacarulo]

The late surrender EV = -.5388, not -.5. Why? If dealer has BJ player cannot surrender and loses 1 unit. Player can surrender if dealer doesn't have BJ in which case loss = .5 units.

Early surrender EV = -.5 since player can surrender whether or not dealer has BJ.

My approximate indexes at various pens:
A graph of the values would likely smoothen the values a little by use of interpolation.
************************************************** ****************************************

7-7 versus 10, 6 decks ENHC (LS = late surrender, ES = early surrender)

Cards remaining (before up card)      LS (after up card)           ES (after up card)

286 = 5 1/2 decks                     RC >= +13; TC ~ 2.4          RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.3 
260 = 5 decks                         RC >= +11; TC ~ +2.2         RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.4
208 = 4 decks                         RC >= +9; TC ~ +2.3          RC >= -5; TC ~ -1.3
156 = 3 decks                         RC >= +7; TC ~ +2.3;         RC >= -4; TC ~ -1.3
104 = 2 decks                         RC >= +5; TC ~ +2.5;         RC >= -2; TC ~ -1.0
52 = 1 deck                           RC >= +3; TC ~ +3;           RC >= -1; TC ~ -1
26 = 1/2 deck                         RC >= +2; TC ~ +4;           RC >= 0; TC ~ 0

************************************************** ****************************************

Not to disparage TC but the goalposts are movable when a constant TC index is assumed as statistically best.

I just included a couple of pages on my website to show this graphically using overall EV for HiLo and KO where graphs for RC and TC are generated from the exact same data.

http://www.bjstrat.net/HiLo_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html
http://www.bjstrat.net/KO_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html

k_c

You are right and Don is right too. I was referring to ES and not to LS. BTW, how did you get EV = -.5388?

Sincerely,
Cac

[k_c]

You are right and Don is right too. I was referring to ES and not to LS. BTW, how did you get EV = -.5388?

Sincerely,
Cac

Prob dealer BJ = 24/309

24/309*(-1)+285/309*(-.5) = -.5388

k_c

[Cacarulo]

Prob dealer BJ = 24/309

24/309*(-1)+285/309*(-.5) = -.5388

k_c

Perfect! Thanks.

Cac

[Cacarulo]

The late surrender EV = -.5388, not -.5. Why? If dealer has BJ player cannot surrender and loses 1 unit. Player can surrender if dealer doesn't have BJ in which case loss = .5 units.

Early surrender EV = -.5 since player can surrender whether or not dealer has BJ.

My approximate indexes at various pens:
A graph of the values would likely smoothen the values a little by use of interpolation.
************************************************** ****************************************

7-7 versus 10, 6 decks ENHC (LS = late surrender, ES = early surrender)

Cards remaining (before up card)      LS (after up card)           ES (after up card)

286 = 5 1/2 decks                     RC >= +13; TC ~ 2.4          RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.3 
260 = 5 decks                         RC >= +11; TC ~ +2.2         RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.4
208 = 4 decks                         RC >= +9; TC ~ +2.3          RC >= -5; TC ~ -1.3
156 = 3 decks                         RC >= +7; TC ~ +2.3;         RC >= -4; TC ~ -1.3
104 = 2 decks                         RC >= +5; TC ~ +2.5;         RC >= -2; TC ~ -1.0
52 = 1 deck                           RC >= +3; TC ~ +3;           RC >= -1; TC ~ -1
26 = 1/2 deck                         RC >= +2; TC ~ +4;           RC >= 0; TC ~ 0

************************************************** ****************************************

Not to disparage TC but the goalposts are movable when a constant TC index is assumed as statistically best.

I just included a couple of pages on my website to show this graphically using overall EV for HiLo and KO where graphs for RC and TC are generated from the exact same data.

http://www.bjstrat.net/HiLo_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html
http://www.bjstrat.net/KO_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html

k_c

My approximate indices for Hi-Lo are now:

LS 77vT >= +2.2
ES 77vT >= -1.4

Sincerely,
Cac

[Cacarulo]

Hi,

The correct play is to surrender. It's probably a mistake from the books. That's why I prefer to generate my own indices.
CVDATA is ideal for that.

88vT
Standing  =  -57.28258585202567%
Hitting   =  -57.14495014054624%
Doubling  = -114.28990028109247%
Splitting =  -61.59194021860972%
Surrender =  -50.00000000000000%

+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
|     TC     |      Probability      |        Standing       |        Hitting        |        Doubling       |        Splitting      | 1 | 2 |
+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
|          4 |   0.01974806127380787 |  -0.59531532343688132 |  -0.62381031431915668 |  -1.24762062863831336 |  -0.68317688747715444 | R | S |
|          3 |   0.03473402679886555 |  -0.58986105431321612 |  -0.61264474598452634 |  -1.22528949196905268 |  -0.66928458419500958 | R | S |
|          2 |   0.06104036524316535 |  -0.58472863759596605 |  -0.60140079647713984 |  -1.20280159295427969 |  -0.65439664928646779 | R | S |
|          1 |   0.11047331143280217 |  -0.57980288961764093 |  -0.59000790950311000 |  -1.18001581900621999 |  -0.63914411857573028 | R | S |
|          0 |   0.23473474578323381 |  -0.57485136605034048 |  -0.57769918362515549 |  -1.15539836725031098 |  -0.62326350752766069 | R | S |
|         -1 |   0.21114571608455926 |  -0.57096202746007096 |  -0.56743817117684892 |  -1.13487634235369783 |  -0.61003201959906539 | R | H |
|         -2 |   0.13521587918273845 |  -0.56703238850362414 |  -0.55689460666950941 |  -1.11378921333901881 |  -0.59572638531686639 | R | H |
|         -3 |   0.07350057638861991 |  -0.56310981050897779 |  -0.54544230794828474 |  -1.09088461589656949 |  -0.58066056981744185 | R | H |
|         -4 |   0.04250945098179275 |  -0.55944185302575089 |  -0.53393429969462913 |  -1.06786859938925827 |  -0.56583858103780116 | R | H |
|         -5 |   0.02320500815022794 |  -0.55609874199647646 |  -0.52232714991080986 |  -1.04465429982161973 |  -0.55134942611015958 | R | H |
|         -6 |   0.01359266757379409 |  -0.55305019287844459 |  -0.51077218697565274 |  -1.02154437395130548 |  -0.53726729697468634 | R | H |
|         -7 |   0.00737994056577261 |  -0.55031357678402881 |  -0.49901664218854180 |  -0.99803328437708361 |  -0.52335318489494609 |   | H |
|         -8 |   0.00417153670028487 |  -0.54786679594704168 |  -0.48724208067799479 |  -0.97448416135598959 |  -0.50973338394046075 |   | H |
+------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+

Note that the surrender index for 88vT is "-6" and if surrender is not allowed, you should stand if the index is greater than or equal to zero.

Sincerely,
Cac

The above (-6) is the ES index.
Actually, you ES 88vT if TC >= -6.3 and you LS 88vT if TC >= -3.2

Sincerely,
Cac