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Thread: ENHC surrender 88 vs 10 or A

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ole View Post
    Try going direct to the Huntington Press website, they carry both. My copy came within a week (here in the US).
    They don't have a UK distributor, and charge almost as much as the book for delivery to the UK. I have tried some large London bookstores including Foyles and they don't hold it.

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamie View Post
    Thanks. Quite difficult to get Don's books in the UK. I am still trying to get BJA3. Hopefully BJA and the new book will be available on kindle at some point.
    The new book is now available on Kindle!

    Don

  3. #16


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamie View Post
    77 vs 10 treated as 14 vs 10 i.e. will surrender vs 10 on a TC >=3 if available
    The 7,7 surrender index is +2, not +3.

    Don

  4. #17


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    Thanks. Just bought it. Any plans for bja3 on the Kindle?

  5. #18


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    The 7,7 surrender index is +2, not +3
    Thanks. Could you explain why this differs from any other 14. I understand for single deck due to effect of removal but am struggling to wrap my head around the difference for multi deck.

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamie View Post
    Thanks. Could you explain why this differs from any other 14. I understand for single deck due to effect of removal but am struggling to wrap my head around the difference for multi deck.
    Same reason. Can't always apply logic to every play. The graph for ordinary 14 vs. T barely shows an edge at +3. The graph for 7,7 vs. T barely shows an edge at +2. So, while it hardly matters what you do when the plays are that close, they are what they are.

    Don

  7. #20


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    Thanks, understood.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    The 7,7 surrender index is +2, not +3.

    Don
    Are you sure Don about this? For 6D,ENHC,SPL3,LS I'm getting "-1" for the surrender index.
    Note that BS says to surrender.

    Code:
    77vT
    Standing  =  -57.16568050051265%
    Hitting   =  -51.49131857625893%
    Doubling  = -103.48841730862026%
    Splitting =  -77.95618196166794%
    Surrender =  -50.00000000000000%
    
    +------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
    |     TC     |      Probability      |        Standing       |        Hitting        |        Doubling       |        Splitting      | 1 | 2 |
    +------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
    |         13 |   0.00004918113987484 |  -0.65513586054665640 |  -0.65934054854100166 |  -1.31868109708200332 |  -1.02193424391275012 | R | S |
    |         12 |   0.00009528802310021 |  -0.64747235150598414 |  -0.64934898184126144 |  -1.29869796368252288 |  -1.00140411367157944 | R | S |
    |         11 |   0.00022030456054112 |  -0.64001098074574470 |  -0.63936413224542776 |  -1.27872826449085553 |  -0.98139342340944513 | R | H |
    |         10 |   0.00044669488001704 |  -0.63277116256821120 |  -0.62919101392171628 |  -1.25838202784343256 |  -0.96193791595236233 | R | H |
    |          9 |   0.00090553571132447 |  -0.62573725653321011 |  -0.61895342704953493 |  -1.23790685409906986 |  -0.94297157417124078 | R | H |
    |          8 |   0.00178681713232004 |  -0.61891112760837086 |  -0.60856387415778357 |  -1.21712774831556714 |  -0.92446077254030878 | R | H |
    |          7 |   0.00335585576980620 |  -0.61231405986982934 |  -0.59810285047958911 |  -1.19620570095917822 |  -0.90647414105315383 | R | H |
    |          6 |   0.00609790085803137 |  -0.60608417010786686 |  -0.58768992338332937 |  -1.17537984676665874 |  -0.88939011271705015 | R | H |
    |          5 |   0.01121562142596041 |  -0.60002300190805447 |  -0.57714614292388289 |  -1.15429228584776578 |  -0.87265978958217516 | R | H |
    |          4 |   0.01974806127380787 |  -0.59427633876367858 |  -0.56654211701101520 |  -1.13308423402203040 |  -0.85666167631921109 | R | H |
    |          3 |   0.03473402679886555 |  -0.58879320354071274 |  -0.55576086391880986 |  -1.11192729487700537 |  -0.84074001670161358 | R | H |
    |          2 |   0.06104036524316535 |  -0.58363241600632176 |  -0.54455111731612638 |  -1.09075346264876205 |  -0.82406363494080737 | R | H |
    |          1 |   0.11047331143280217 |  -0.57867842424897409 |  -0.53325336446906058 |  -1.06944088781744484 |  -0.80664149238712179 | R | H |
    |          0 |   0.23473474578323381 |  -0.57369724133226663 |  -0.52114911519171203 |  -1.04660491979659120 |  -0.78828079481625535 | R | H |
    |         -1 |   0.21114571608455926 |  -0.56978274853396793 |  -0.51093442223509178 |  -1.02749502336470466 |  -0.77262372353259146 | R | H |
    |         -2 |   0.13521587918273845 |  -0.56582516386457538 |  -0.49987741802541125 |  -1.00748734803108508 |  -0.75534109391477799 |   | H |
    |         -3 |   0.07350057638861991 |  -0.56187320684918240 |  -0.48787593187154193 |  -0.98595251208147394 |  -0.73684062971725206 |   | H |
    +------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+-----------------------+---+---+
    Sincerely,
    Cac

  9. #22


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    True for LS.
    And the indices for ES and ES10 are a bit lower.

    Sent from my LM-K500 using Tapatalk

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Are you sure Don about this? For 6D,ENHC,SPL3,LS I'm getting "-1" for the surrender index.
    Note that BS says to surrender.
    You seem to be referring to ES, but I didn't see anything in the discussion that mentioned that. When the OP said he'd normally surrender 14 vs. T at +3, that was further evidence to me that he was talking about late surrender.

    More importantly, did you get the book?

    Don

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    You seem to be referring to ES, but I didn't see anything in the discussion that mentioned that. When the OP said he'd normally surrender 14 vs. T at +3, that was further evidence to me that he was talking about late surrender.

    More importantly, did you get the book?

    Don
    I was referring to LS and unfortunately I didn't get the book yet

    Sincerely,
    Cac

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Are you sure Don about this? For 6D,ENHC,SPL3,LS I'm getting "-1" for the surrender index.
    Note that BS says to surrender.

    Code:
    77vT
    Standing  =  -57.16568050051265%
    Hitting   =  -51.49131857625893%
    Doubling  = -103.48841730862026%
    Splitting =  -77.95618196166794%
    Surrender =  -50.00000000000000%
    Sincerely,
    Cac
    The late surrender EV = -.5388, not -.5. Why? If dealer has BJ player cannot surrender and loses 1 unit. Player can surrender if dealer doesn't have BJ in which case loss = .5 units.

    Early surrender EV = -.5 since player can surrender whether or not dealer has BJ.

    My approximate indexes at various pens:
    A graph of the values would likely smoothen the values a little by use of interpolation.
    ************************************************** ****************************************

    7-7 versus 10, 6 decks ENHC (LS = late surrender, ES = early surrender)

    Code:
    Cards remaining (before up card)      LS (after up card)           ES (after up card)
    
    286 = 5 1/2 decks                     RC >= +13; TC ~ 2.4          RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.3 
    260 = 5 decks                         RC >= +11; TC ~ +2.2         RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.4
    208 = 4 decks                         RC >= +9; TC ~ +2.3          RC >= -5; TC ~ -1.3
    156 = 3 decks                         RC >= +7; TC ~ +2.3;         RC >= -4; TC ~ -1.3
    104 = 2 decks                         RC >= +5; TC ~ +2.5;         RC >= -2; TC ~ -1.0
    52 = 1 deck                           RC >= +3; TC ~ +3;           RC >= -1; TC ~ -1
    26 = 1/2 deck                         RC >= +2; TC ~ +4;           RC >= 0; TC ~ 0
    ************************************************** ****************************************

    Not to disparage TC but the goalposts are movable when a constant TC index is assumed as statistically best.

    I just included a couple of pages on my website to show this graphically using overall EV for HiLo and KO where graphs for RC and TC are generated from the exact same data.

    http://www.bjstrat.net/HiLo_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html
    http://www.bjstrat.net/KO_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html

    k_c

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by k_c View Post
    The late surrender EV = -.5388, not -.5. Why? If dealer has BJ player cannot surrender and loses 1 unit. Player can surrender if dealer doesn't have BJ in which case loss = .5 units.

    Early surrender EV = -.5 since player can surrender whether or not dealer has BJ.

    My approximate indexes at various pens:
    A graph of the values would likely smoothen the values a little by use of interpolation.
    ************************************************** ****************************************

    7-7 versus 10, 6 decks ENHC (LS = late surrender, ES = early surrender)

    Code:
    Cards remaining (before up card)      LS (after up card)           ES (after up card)
    
    286 = 5 1/2 decks                     RC >= +13; TC ~ 2.4          RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.3 
    260 = 5 decks                         RC >= +11; TC ~ +2.2         RC >= -7; TC ~ -1.4
    208 = 4 decks                         RC >= +9; TC ~ +2.3          RC >= -5; TC ~ -1.3
    156 = 3 decks                         RC >= +7; TC ~ +2.3;         RC >= -4; TC ~ -1.3
    104 = 2 decks                         RC >= +5; TC ~ +2.5;         RC >= -2; TC ~ -1.0
    52 = 1 deck                           RC >= +3; TC ~ +3;           RC >= -1; TC ~ -1
    26 = 1/2 deck                         RC >= +2; TC ~ +4;           RC >= 0; TC ~ 0
    ************************************************** ****************************************

    Not to disparage TC but the goalposts are movable when a constant TC index is assumed as statistically best.

    I just included a couple of pages on my website to show this graphically using overall EV for HiLo and KO where graphs for RC and TC are generated from the exact same data.

    http://www.bjstrat.net/HiLo_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html
    http://www.bjstrat.net/KO_oev_6D_S17_NDAS_Sp1.html

    k_c
    You are right and Don is right too. I was referring to ES and not to LS. BTW, how did you get EV = -.5388?

    Sincerely,
    Cac

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