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Thread: Question for Norm: Hi-Lo vs KO

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    Question for Norm: Hi-Lo vs KO

    You seem to have done extensive studies on Hi-Lo vs KO. Someone recently told me that KO is more sensitive to counting mistakes than Hi-Lo. Is this true? Did you ever run simulations to compare the cost of counting mistakes between the two systems?

    I believe CVData can simulate betting errors. Does the software randomly adjust the bet upwards or downwards by a few TC or RC bins or does it randomly adjust the running count by +/- 3? There is a difference between the two approaches.

    MJ

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Never looked at it. Don't know about KO Full. Less likely for KO Preferred.

    The betting errors are up or down a betting bin.

    Depends on what the errors are:


    • Not counting a card
    • Double counting
    • Wrong tag
    • TC conversions
    • Deck estimations
    • Index errors
    • Bet table errors
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Sorry I should have been more clear. The errors are with respect to accurately tracking the running count. Which system do you think carries a greater penalty for this sort of error?

    MJ

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    KO. More double digits.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Long story why. But I would prefer KO.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    It's a personal choice. Brains work differently.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    It's a personal choice. Brains work differently.
    I mean if you make a choice initially for teaching a beginner. And I would leave this choice for the rest of my life. Although I myself have been using Hi Lo for 20 years.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Nonetheless, for some pure, objective results, in head-to-head comparisons, see page 176 of BJA3, where Hi-Lo wins every match-up, except one, at the very bottom, in what is surely a nonexistent game.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    KO. More double digits.
    I don't understand what you mean by that. Can you please elaborate?

    What I do know is in a shoe game (KO Preferred) there is a wide range from the key count to the pivot point in which to vary the bet. With Hi-Lo, I'm not sure about how sensitive the system is to being off on the running count.

    Can CVData simulate errors on the running count?

    MJ

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I mean the wide range that includes larger numbers.

    CVData sims errors in betting, playing, and TC conversion in a sense using the Custom TC calc. I never thought of a good method of errors in RC. There are rather a lot of different ways you can miscount, some of which could magnify as you go through the shoe and some of which may offset previous errors.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I mean the wide range that includes larger numbers.
    Why would this make counting errors more costly?

    With KO, there is a wide range of counts over which to vary the bet so there is a gradual progression in the bet variation. With Hi-Lo, for any reasonable bet spread, the bet only varies over a brief range of TC. I wonder if the TC conversion is more forgiving of counting errors than simply tracking the RC with an unbalanced system.

    One idea for simulating counting errors is to simply vary the RC by up to +/- 'x' for every 'y' rounds played. This method seems reasonable and should produce useful output.

    MJ

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Why would this make counting errors more costly?
    It doesn't make it more costly per error. It makes errors more common for some people.

    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    One idea for simulating counting errors is to simply vary the RC by up to +/- 'x' for every 'y' rounds played. This method seems reasonable and should produce useful output.
    Problem is, counting errors are not random. If you make errors, you likely make them in a related manner which is more costly than random errors.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    Why would this make counting errors more costly?

    With KO, there is a wide range of counts over which to vary the bet so there is a gradual progression in the bet variation. With Hi-Lo, for any reasonable bet spread, the bet only varies over a brief range of TC. I wonder if the TC conversion is more forgiving of counting errors than simply tracking the RC with an unbalanced system.

    One idea for simulating counting errors is to simply vary the RC by up to +/- 'x' for every 'y' rounds played. This method seems reasonable and should produce useful output.

    MJ
    I have a much better idea, and I'm not being sarcastic. Instead of spending so much time trying to figure out how much errors cost, why not spend the same amount of time practicing enough so that you don't make any errors at all?

    Don

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