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Thread: Thoughts on replenishing BR?

  1. #1


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    Thoughts on replenishing BR?

    I want to invest a lot more money into counting, around 15k total. However, I don’t have 15k exactly on me. What are your thoughts having a replenishable 1k every month? For example, I would go to the casino every 2 weeks with $500-$1000. My trip ror is around under 10% every time I go. I play $10 min and stick with a 1-6 to a 1-8 bet spread.

    Is this reasonable to do? Is this the same as just having a 15k br? Would it be smarter to just save up for months and then go?

  2. #2


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    Unless you are playing double deck games with good penetration, a 1-6 or 1-8 spread won't do it. Wait until you have an adequate BR, then spread at least 1-12 at shoe games.

  3. #3


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    Yes, I mainly play DD with around 70% pen. My ev is around 11$ - 16$ an hour which I’m happy with.

  4. #4


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    That's a good game. Your current spread should work.

  5. #5


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    You didn't say what rules you can get at your game. Based on what I see in CVCX assuming 2D, H17, DAS, with 0.75 decks cut off and a $10-$80 spread, I think your win rate is going to be in the $25-$40/hr range and your -/+ one standard deviation is going to be somewhere in the -$500 to +$600 range for 2 hours of play. You could have a run of positive variance and start to accumulate bankroll, or you could have negative variance which will make getting to that $15K bank that much harder. The key will be how you handle the negative swings if you are starting with essentially a $1000 bankroll. Make sure you are ready for those kinds of swings. I would wait and save up a bigger bank so you reduce your overall risk of ruin, make the swings easier to endure mentally, an then replenish as needed.
    Last edited by Intermediate; 02-01-2023 at 12:41 PM.

  6. #6


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    Looks like you asked this same question on the blackjack subreddit so I'll also leave the same answer here:

    15k now is worth more than 15k later. It's like the saying, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. The reason why is because that future money does have some risk, how much risk depends on the situation. If it's from a paycheck, maybe you lose your job. Maybe theres an unexpected emergency expense that you need your BJ bankroll for.

    The good news is that this is a solved problem in finance it's called Present Value and Discounted Cash Flow. To find the Present Value (how much this replenishing cash flow is worth) of 1k/mo for 15 months you give a discount on the 1k earned in later months since it's more and more risky as more time passes. I'm sure you can find good resources online to calculate and understand this. It all depends on the riskiness of the cash flow.

    Once you calculate your present value, choose an acceptable RoR on that present value. I've never heard anyone talk about this with their blackjack bankrolls but it's been on my mind since I'm in a similar situation. Good Luck.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Davydoo View Post
    I want to invest a lot more money into counting, around 15k total. However, I don’t have 15k exactly on me. What are your thoughts having a replenishable 1k every month? For example, I would go to the casino every 2 weeks with $500-$1000. My trip ror is around under 10% every time I go. I play $10 min and stick with a 1-6 to a 1-8 bet spread.

    Is this reasonable to do? Is this the same as just having a 15k br? Would it be smarter to just save up for months and then go?
    Everything you want to know - search this thread - https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-help-a-newbie

    Post 7 starts your answer. Take special note of references to Snyder, Blackbelt in Blackjack and references to specific pages.

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