Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 14 to 17 of 17

Thread: actual result vs expected result

  1. #14


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Gronbog View Post
    roliin, why do you consider 5% to be rare? Being dealt a natural is only a ~1/21 = 4.8% event.
    Point taken. My question feels pretty stupid now. I guess because I was thinking in terms of one of my CVBJ sessions where I experienced 2SDs after 37k hands and thought: surely I will dig out and get SOMEWHERE in the realm of EV after 100k hands! I dug out, but was still 2SD from EV after 100k hands. I guess 1 in 21 is 1 in 21 no matter how ya slice it. It happens, even after 1000 hours! Glad it happened on CVBJ, very humbling/illuminating.

  2. #15


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    "You look it up in a normal distribution table. See, for example, BJA3, p. 147."

    Got it. So, the first number in the first row (0.0013) is a 3SD event? That happens 0.13% of the time (1 in 769)?

  3. #16


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by roliin View Post
    "You look it up in a normal distribution table. See, for example, BJA3, p. 147."

    Got it. So, the first number in the first row (0.0013) is a 3SD event? That happens 0.13% of the time (1 in 769)?
    Yes.

    Don

  4. #17


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Why would you square the $724 only to then take the square root? Just take the square root of the number of hours (155) and multiply that result by $724.

    Don
    Partially to "show my work" and also because....I feel like I know enough to get the right answer, but I don't know enough to be able to do fancy math. I'm more of a "n0 is when EV = 1SD, now figure out the formula" instead of "the formula for n0 is _____" person. Also



    @OP: You can also use the following formula to go from SD to %:

    https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i...%2F2%29++du%29

    Change the "-1.24" in the formula to whatever SD. The result is the probability of that SD or worse.
    Last edited by RS; 02-17-2023 at 06:23 PM.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Similar Threads

  1. CVCX - Confused about a result
    By Grobbelaar in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 10-11-2020, 09:54 AM
  2. Replies: 2
    Last Post: 08-21-2019, 03:48 AM
  3. backcount result
    By abc4000 in forum Software
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-10-2019, 09:41 PM
  4. Simulating Specific Shuffle Result
    By JamesonDetroit in forum Software
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 07-24-2018, 04:43 PM
  5. Puzzling result on online calculator
    By ZeeBabar in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 07-19-2016, 08:58 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.