Originally Posted by
peterlee
Your reply only applies to the first statement, correct?
[For a seven-spot BJ table, dealer's hole card is the 16th card dealt. Chance of getting a picture is 4/13.]
I mean, we are estimating the chance before the game starts.
I'm bringing this up because you mentioned "exchangeability," and I watched some YouTube videos about that. Without any other information, the first 16 cards from the shoe are exchangeable. Is that correct?
Regarding the second statement,
[For a no-hole-card game, dealer's hole card would be the 16th or later, due to the players hitting or taking other actions.]
We are also estimating the chance before the game starts. We don't have any extra information after any cards are dealt. However, for basic strategy (BS) players, some additional cards will be dealt before the dealer receives the hole card. So, [Since it is more likely to end up with a high-value card when hitting, the chance of the dealer's hole card being a picture card is not exactly 4/13.], and I would add "less than 4/13."
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