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Thread: True Count & Number of Players

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    True Count & Number of Players

    Please forgive if this question is nonsensical for some reason, but I don't believe I've seen this topic addressed.

    Consider a lone player playing 6 decks (Las Vegas Strip rules) at Table A, and, after Round 20 (let's say 108 cards are in the discard tray), the True Count is +2. Now consider the same 6 deck game with 5 players at Table B, and the True Count is also +2 with also 108 cards in the discard tray.

    Is the meaning or value of the +2 Count to the lone player at Table A the same as it is to EACH of the 5 players at Table B? In other words, at the 5-player game, can the 3rd base player, for example, expect the same advantage that the 1st player is expecting due to the True Count being +2? If not, has anyone quantified how much, and at what point, a True Count's value begins losing its full value as a multi-player Round progresses?

    It is my understanding that the True Count is recalculated after each Round. But wouldn't it be more accurate to recalculate it more frequently when there are more than, say, 3 or so players at the table? Or do some players already do this?
    Last edited by Overkill; 12-29-2022 at 08:42 PM.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    A couple of things. First, CVData has four options for when to recalc:


    • Before betting
    • Also before Insurance
    • Also before first decision
    • Also before every close decision.


    You will see some charts on the effect at: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration9.htm.

    Second, third base normally has an advantage as more cards are seen. If you don't recalc, that advantage is lost.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Ok, thanks, Norm. That's a very neat chart. But it looks like not a lot gained in non-single deck games, which explains why players don't discuss this topic much?

    Also, before the start of a Round, can where a player is seated cause her/him to not realize the full value of the True Count that was calculated just prior to the start of the Round? What I mean is: How long does the full value of the True Count lasts as the dealer is dealing cards at the start of the Round to, say, 5 players? (Does the answer to that question depend on the number of decks, number of players, and penetration?).

    That is, do simulations show that only first base and maybe the player to first base's left realize the full benefit of the True Count as those players are the players to receive the first cards of the remaining cards for which the True Count has been calculated, or can, for example, third base bet just as high as first base (given 5 players at the table) at a high True Count?

    As I write this, maybe I've answered my own question, which basically is does the True Count assigned to a shoe of remaining cards more accurately reflect the first few cards that will come out of the show or all of the remaining cards in the shoe equally?

    It seems to me that a lone player can better depend on the meaning of a True Count than can, say, each of the 5 players at a 5 player table.

  4. #4
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    No matter where you sit, the count at the start is correct for betting.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Overkill View Post
    Ok, thanks, Norm. That's a very neat chart. But it looks like not a lot gained in non-single deck games, which explains why players don't discuss this topic much?

    Also, before the start of a Round, can where a player is seated cause her/him to not realize the full value of the True Count that was calculated just prior to the start of the Round? What I mean is: How long does the full value of the True Count lasts as the dealer is dealing cards at the start of the Round to, say, 5 players? (Does the answer to that question depend on the number of decks, number of players, and penetration?).

    That is, do simulations show that only first base and maybe the player to first base's left realize the full benefit of the True Count as those players are the players to receive the first cards of the remaining cards for which the True Count has been calculated, or can, for example, third base bet just as high as first base (given 5 players at the table) at a high True Count?

    As I write this, maybe I've answered my own question, which basically is does the True Count assigned to a shoe of remaining cards more accurately reflect the first few cards that will come out of the show or all of the remaining cards in the shoe equally?

    It seems to me that a lone player can better depend on the meaning of a True Count than can, say, each of the 5 players at a 5 player table.
    Reread BJA3, bottom of p. 382 to top of page 383 and then again, bottom of page 383 to top of page 384.

    There is NO tendency for the true count to change as cards are dealt!

    Don

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    i have a question on that.
    When counting gives you to bet 1 unit, and you can play six hands, then you bet 1 unit each?

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    Thank you, Norm and Don.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post

    There is NO tendency for the true count to change as cards are dealt!
    Agree!
    But is there a tendency for the true count to change as a hand is dealt?
    For a shoe game, the true count drops to -ve after the first round, on average.

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    For a shoe game, the true count drops to -ve after the first round, on average.
    I don't understand what you wrote.

    Don

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    For a while now, I've thought "-ve" was supposed to be a cute way of writing "negative", and not to be confused with "- EV".

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I don't understand what you wrote.

    Don
    For a shoe game, the first round uses more big cards then small cards on average. This makes the TC=0 before the first round, and goes to TC=negative after the first round, on average.
    Please forgive my poor English writing.

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    Why would the first round use more big cards on average but not the second or any subsequent rounds? And, assuming your statement is true, which I doubt is the case, why do you consider it to have any significance?

    Don

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    A round end up with a big card more often, so the running count changes to negative more often after the first round. This is confirmed by computer simulation.
    Did not go further study, so have no idea what happen on the further hands.
    ...
    Some studies on continue shuffle machine, claim that CSM can low down the house edge. Their simulation is based on the first round of a shoe game conditions, but not a continue shuffling conditions. I wonder their results are based on the wrong assumption.

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