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Thread: CVData V6

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    CVData V6

    I ran a simulation with 3 players plus the dealer, with one of the strategies incorporating 2 hands per round. This is a 6 deck shoe with 1.5 decks cutoff. According to CVData, the average number of rounds per shoe is about 10. However, when I do the calculation by hand for a quick estimate, the rounds per shoe works out to be approximately 17 (assumes 2.7 cards per hand). Why are the two figures so far off?

    CVData reports 1.107E+9 rounds with 110,410,871 shoes simulated which yields 10.
    My hand calculation is [(312*0.75)-1]/(2.7*5) ~ 17.

    MJ

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Just ran a sim and the numbers look correct. Hard to imagine otherwise as they aren't calculations but simple counts. Send me an export.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Just ran a sim and the numbers look correct. Hard to imagine otherwise as they aren't calculations but simple counts. Send me an export.
    If the numbers in the sim are correct, that would imply 4.66 cards are used per hand! Conventional wisdom says that 2.7 cards (on average) are used per hand. Is the conventional wisdom wrong? I still don't understand why the difference. What am I missing? Attached is the export file.

    MJ

    Export.zip

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    If I'm looking at the correct sim in the export; the two hand player is also Wonging. Changes the numbers. BTW, you might want to turn off Reset after shuffle in the betting strategy.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    You are correct, the 2-hand player is wonging out of negative counts based upon depth. If anything, this should decrease average number of cards per hand as he will encounter more positive and neutral counts as opposed to play all. Please allow me to repeat my question. Why should wonging out increase cards used per hand from 2.7 to 4.66?!

    I use Reset after shuffle to simulate going from one shoe to the next with no rounds wasted between shoes.

    Thanks,
    MJ

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    1. With five players, the dealer gets about 2.93 cards/round and the player about 2.75.
    2. This is cards/round not cards/hand.
    3. That's with BS. You have three different strategies in play.
    4. You are Wonging while playing two hands. That is, two seats drop out in some rounds; but the dealer keeps dealing rounds.
    5. The more players at the table, the farther past the cut card the dealer deals.
    6. I ran your sim and get very different numbers for rounds and shoes.
    7. You have partial hole carding turned on.

    There is no way to calculate this with a simple divide. It must be simmed.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    1. With five players, the dealer gets about 2.93 cards/round and the player about 2.75.
    4. You are Wonging while playing two hands. That is, two seats drop out in some rounds; but the dealer keeps dealing rounds.
    6. I ran your sim and get very different numbers for rounds and shoes.
    7. You have partial hole carding turned on.
    #1 Where are you getting those figures? They sound about right.
    #4, I have 'Force shuffle on exit' turned on, so the dealer shouldn't deal rounds after two seats drop out.
    #6 How many rounds per shoe did your sim come back with? Why are we getting different numbers?
    #7 I don't even know what is partial hole carding. :-) What screen is it on and how do I turn it off?

    Regarding your suggestion to turn off Reset after shuffle, I would prefer to bet the minimum right off the top irrespective of how much I bet on the last hand of the shoe.

    MJ

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    #1 Where are you getting those figures? They sound about right.
    https://www.blackjackincolor.com/cardsperround.htm
    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    #4, I have 'Force shuffle on exit' turned on, so the dealer shouldn't deal rounds after two seats drop out.
    It was off in the export file
    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    #6 How many rounds per shoe did your sim come back with? Why are we getting different numbers?
    Don't remember and I deleted it.
    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    #7 I don't even know what is partial hole carding. :-) What screen is it on and how do I turn it off?
    It's on Nuances-Hole carding. The Nuance button blinks if any of the settings that can change results are on in teh Nuances screens. The tabs that have options set that can change results are colored orange. I may have pulled the wrong config out of the export file. The exports contain a quite large number of files.

    The point remains that you cannot calculate this number. It must be simmed. The only reason I created that chart is to counter books that claim it is a fixed 2.7 instead of varying by conditions.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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