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Thread: True Count & Number of Players

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    so the running count changes to negative more often after the first round. This is confirmed by computer simulation.
    I would think RC would be equally likely to jump or down after first round. What would make it biased to go down on first round?

    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    Some studies on continue shuffle machine, claim that CSM can low down the house edge.
    What does this mean? Are you saying CSM actually lowers house edge? I would think the machines would do opposite, by preventing the unseen cards composition from ever favoring the player.
    Last edited by UncleChoo; 01-09-2023 at 01:39 PM.

  2. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChoo View Post
    I would think RC would be equally likely to jump or down after first round. What would make it biased to go down on first round?

    A no hole card game, dealer takes the last card before finishing the hand. The last card is a High card, more often then it is a Low card…Do you agree?

    What does this mean? Are you saying CSM actually lowers house edge? I would think the machines would do opposite, by preventing the unseen cards composition from ever favoring the player.
    Google CSM lower house edge. Millions of links come out to tell "CSM blackjack with more decks of cards actually lowers the house edge by 0.014%"... or something like that.
    And I doubt about this.

  3. #16
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChoo View Post
    What does this mean? Are you saying CSM actually lowers house edge?
    CSMs have no cut card effect. The cut card effect increases house edge.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post

    Google CSM lower house edge. Millions of links come out to tell "CSM blackjack with more decks of cards actually lowers the house edge by 0.014%"... or something like that.
    And I doubt about this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    CSMs have no cut card effect. The cut card effect increases house edge.
    My inutition or logic is apparently flawed on this subject. Quick example of my thought process though-

    A BS player and counter sit and play a six deck shoe. There will be times the counter counts say a TC +5. This would swing the advantage to the counters favor.
    In theory, the BS player would also have the edge the counter has (they are playing the same shoe).
    His problem though is that he is blind to it. So he never gets to properly take advantage of the edge by raising his bets wheras the counter can.
    Is this true???

    So my above logic (possibly flawed as well) had me thinking that since the CSM would prevent the card composition from ever favoring the player,
    it wouldn't lower the house edge, but keep it flat or raise it.

  5. #18
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    There is a difference between top of the deck BS edge and BS edge if you play 75% of the hands. But, your BS edge at any point is the same, except near the cut card.
    Last edited by Norm; 01-10-2023 at 12:33 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    There is a difference between top of the deck BS edge and BS edge if you play 75% of the hands. But, your BS edge at any point is the same, except near the cut card.
    Is there any BS edge difference between the first hand and the second hand?

    I think they are not the same, because after the first hand, more Hi cards have been used, on average.

  7. #20
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    The RC drops very slightly. About 0.1 by the middle of the shoe. The TC does not drop.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    Is there any BS edge difference between the first hand and the second hand?

    I think they are not the same, because after the first hand, more Hi cards have been used, on average.
    The answer is no. There is absolutely no difference in BS edge between the first hand and the second. There is even a famous theorem about this, described by Ed Thorp, many, many years ago.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    The RC drops very slightly. About 0.1 by the middle of the shoe. The TC does not drop.
    How about comparing the first hand with the second hand?

  10. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    Is there any BS edge difference between the first hand and the second hand?


    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    The RC drops very slightly. About 0.1 by the middle of the shoe. The TC does not drop.


    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    The answer is no. There is absolutely no difference in BS edge between the first hand and the second. There is even a famous theorem about this, described by Ed Thorp, many, many years ago.


    Seems there are two different answers, is it?

  11. #24


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    I still don't get the whole more big cards come out on average for the first round. If that the case would be a great time to put out big bets.
    Can someone post me a link to a deeper explanation of the cut card effect? I don't recall this being mentioned in BJA or Griffins TOBJ.

  12. #25
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Nobody said quite that. The last card dealt in a round is more likely to be a ten because tens are the most common completion card, often a busting card. But, it's a very small difference and not enough to affect overall results.
    Last edited by Norm; 01-11-2023 at 09:12 AM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    The answer is no. There is absolutely no difference in BS edge between the first hand and the second. There is even a famous theorem about this, described by Ed Thorp, many, many years ago.

    Don
    I found it in Blackjack Forum, June 1993.

    "Does Basic Strategy Have the Same Expectation for Each Round?" by Ed Thorp.



    Theorem 1: Fundamental invariance theorem for simple strategies. "Given (A1), (A2) and (A3m), any specified simple strategy S has a probability distribution on segments which is invariant, no matter what round k, l<=k<=m, it is played, nor how many players there are on each round, nor what strategies the other players follow." There follows a proof.


    Corollary 2: Any specified version of "top of the deck basic strategy," with only one player versus the dealer, has invariant probability distribution and identical expectation no matter what round it is played, l<=k<=m, no matter how many players there are on each round, nor what strategies the players follow. Further, basic strategy is identical on all rounds.


    End of discussion. Case closed.



    There follows more on the CCE and CSMs. But enough for now.


    Don

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