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Thread: CVCX V6 Wonging feature

  1. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Actually, I would need to add four options and modify five simulators.
    Well if it is feasible then give it a go. I think it is a worthy addition. In the casino there are players who play right off the top and then sit out a few hands at bad counts and then come back in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm
    Almost no one uses this stat.
    I beg to differ. The MIT Blackjack Teams used this very metric to value their games. They used custom simulators to determine the CE of their play and pay out their players accordingly. Don't believe me? See the Hot Shoe clip below. Also, if you look carefully at the screen you will notice at 1:10:28 their simulator determines CE/Shoe! I would like to see that added to CVData as well.

    Watch from 1:10 to 1:11:24.



    By the way, what do you think of the simulator they are using?


    Doesn't for me in V5 or V6, unless ES10 is turned on. That's the only place in the code I can see it turned off.
    The feature turns off in V6. It even turns off sim to sim. You are missing something.

    MJ

  2. #22
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    I beg to differ. The MIT Blackjack Teams used this very metric to value their games. They used custom simulators to determine the CE of their play and pay out their players accordingly. Don't believe me? See the Hot Shoe clip below. Also, if you look carefully at the screen you will notice at 1:10:28 their simulator determines CE/Shoe! I would like to see that added to CVData as well.
    The key word is "used". That was then. Now is now. None of the big teams has asked for this.
    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    The feature turns off in V6. It even turns off sim to sim. You are missing something
    I cannot make it occur. Send me a CXCX Configuration Export.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #23


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    Do you mean to say that SCORE is a better performance metric than CE? At the end of the day both metrics take variance into account so they are not entirely different. However CE provides risk adjusted return. SCORE is not without its limitations.

    Suppose you are playing a game spreading table min $1 to max of $20 off a 10k BR. Now you have another game with same rules and spread from $10 to $200 with same BR. The SCORE of each game is identical by virtue of spread, however, CE correctly identifies the superior game and best use of your time. I don't understand how you can trivialize CE. A former manager of the MIT Team once told me they would take geometric CE over SCORE any day!

    MJ

  4. #24
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I don't remember trivializing CE. I said no one is asking for this. Two minutes after the time you gave where they were using a calculator, the guy speaking is now using CVCX. He hasn't asked for CE/shoe. In the example you gave, CE/WR for one of the bet spreads would either show extreme over-betting or extreme under-betting. Of course, the RoR number would also show this, more clearly in my mind.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  5. #25


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    OK, I'm happy to jump in and take the bait. SCORE for the two games you mention is identical because it assumes that you're betting intelligently, or optimally, neither of which is the case with your two scenarios. So, if you spread $1 to $10, you're vastly underbetting your bankroll, your ROR is zero, and you win $3.51 an hour. Your CE is almost the same ($3.26) and the CE/WR that you mention is 0.93.

    Spread $10 to $200, and now you're overbetting, you win ten times as much per hour ($35.07), but your ROR jumps to over 25%, your CE is $10.63 and, accordingly, your CE/WR is now a much lower 0.30.

    So what's your point? Both ways of playing are patently absurd. SCORE tells you that the most efficient use of your capital is to spread $7 to $140, win about $25 an hour, with CE = $12.50, and the CE/WR = the classic 0.50 for optimal betting.

    So, I'm not sure exactly what your point is, but if you're telling me that MIT was in the habit of routinely betting stupidly, I'm not sure I'm buying it.

    Don

  6. #26


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    I don't remember trivializing CE. I said no one is asking for this. Two minutes after the time you gave where they were using a calculator, the guy speaking is now using CVCX. He hasn't asked for CE/shoe.
    Where do you see a calculator? I see them typing inputs and running a simulation. See 1:10:27 of aforementioned clip. I would like to know your opinion of their software. Are you at all impressed by what it can do? If you maximize the screen, you will notice the output shows not only certainty equivalent/shoe but even 'uncert' which I'm guessing is the standard error. The CE/shoe was $488 and the uncert. ~ $20. That is a standard error of 4.09%.

    MJ

  7. #27
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Seriously? I don't know what I'm supposed to say about a fuzzy screenshot. All I can tell is it is DOS based software with a Windows-like UI.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  8. #28


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    Fair enough. I sent you the file.

  9. #29


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    Thanks for weighing in, Don. I wasn't trying to bait you. I already know you think SCORE is the best thing since sliced bread!

    The game of blackjack doesn't exist in a vacuum where some set of predetermined conditions is universal. As you already acknowledged, SCORE makes many assumptions. Let's discuss a few of those:

    1) 10k BR - what if your BR is $5k or $50k?
    2) full kelly - every player has a different level of risk tolerance.
    3) 100 rounds dealt per hour - this is a convenient number to work with but try getting that at a full table!
    4) optimal betting down to the dollar - does it look natural betting $27, $71, $93, $118, etc?

    You will argue these assumptions are for purposes of game comparison and that they level the playing field between different card counting systems.

    So what's your point? Both ways of playing are patently absurd. SCORE tells you that the most efficient use of your capital is to spread $7 to $140, win about $25 an hour, with CE = $12.50, and the CE/WR = the classic 0.50 for optimal betting.
    In your example, you spread from $7 to $140? Seriously?! Who bets a minimum of $7? What if the table minimum were $10? $15 $25? Now 'C-SCORE' doesn't tell the full story as RoR has gone up. Let's throw another wrinkle into the discussion. What if one game you can get in 80 rounds per hour but another game you only get 50? How does SCORE account for that? C-SCORE could I guess. Also, what if you have another opportunity outside of BJ to make money? CE gives the opportunity cost of your play based upon your risk tolerance while SCORE does no such thing! I think that is pretty cool.

    The point is that CE gives a better indication of the stronger game for the player, unlike SCORE. Now maybe my initial example wasn't the best. Okay, well how about a game where a player spreads $1 to $20 with $10k BR, and plays another game where he spreads from $15 to $150 with same rules. These are two different casinos so each have different minimums and maximums. In the real world, most recreational counters do not travel so they have to choose between the nearest games. SCORE will give the impression that the first game is superior, while CE will correctly determines the latter game is a better use of the player's time.

    MJ

  10. #30
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    1) 10k BR - what if your BR is $5k or $50k?
    2) full kelly - every player has a different level of risk tolerance.
    3) 100 rounds dealt per hour - this is a convenient number to work with but try getting that at a full table!
    4) optimal betting down to the dollar - does it look natural betting $27, $71, $93, $118, etc?
    None of this is true for C-SCORE, which is what CVCX calculates.

    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    CE gives the opportunity cost of your play based upon your risk tolerance while SCORE does no such thing! I think that is pretty cool.
    C-SCORE does.

    Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
    SCORE will give the impression that the first game is superior, while CE will correctly determines the latter game is a better use of the player's time.
    Again, use C-SCORE. CVCX calculates both. But, users look at SCORE or EV.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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