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Thread: Does My Expected Loss Change

  1. #1


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    Does My Expected Loss Change

    Assume this online casino promotion. A blackjack game with 0.5% house edge, $20,000 play thru required to get a $100 in free credits. Basically a break even promotion. Now assume the player has good luck and at the halfway point of $10,000 play thru he is $500 ahead. He then takes a hour for dinner and comes back to finish the promotion.

    When he started the promotion his play was expected to yield a $100 loss. However, with only $10,000 to go can we assume his loss will only be $50, and he will end up with a $450 gain plus $100 in free credits. Or will he lose everything he won and his original $100 loss will prevail.

  2. #2


    2 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Really?
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  3. #3


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RS View Post
    Really?
    Boy, sure a lot of good info in your post!
    Email: midwestbjplayer[email protected]

  4. #4


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    The reason for RS's "Really?" was to possibly wake you up to the incredible naivete (I'm being polite by not using a different noun) of your question. You've been at this for how long and REALLY have to ask if the cards have a memory and are going to "catch up" in the second half to make sure that you lose all that you were supposed to by the time you finish?? REALLY, indeed!!

    Don

  5. #5


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    Further question: Did breaking for dinner affect your ultimate EV?

    Don

  6. #6


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    Don - I'm sure you know that the best EV is obtained when the dinner break time in minutes is divisible by 7. Hopefully you and Gronbog will have that sim in your new book.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Don - I'm sure you know that the best EV is obtained when the dinner break time in minutes is divisible by 7. Hopefully you and Gronbog will have that sim in your new book.
    Working to incorporate that and any other last-minute findings before going to print.

    Don

  8. #8


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    You have $10k to "play thru" at a .5% disadvantage so you can expect to lose $50 and get $100 free credit for that $10k play thru. Everything that happened before that point is irrelevant, dinner, piss break or no break at all. Take $50 away from the $500 you've already won and add $100 in free credit and that's what you should expect after your remaining $10k play thru.

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