Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 15

Thread: Is This Free Bet a Positive Value Play

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Is This Free Bet a Positive Value Play

    I'm presently at the Platinum Tier with Caesars Rewards. I'm suppose to get a $10 free bet every month, but I have only received it a couple of times, and was wondering why I wasn't getting it every month. Then I discovered the fine print which says: for Monthly Free Bet, must have placed at least $100 cash wager which settles during the previous calendar month. I don't know if this requires at least a $100 bet or if it can be several bets that total $100.

    Now I'm less than $26,000 away in play to make it to Diamond at Caesars and then I will get a $20 free bet each month, but you still have to make a $100 wager. So is it worth it to make a $100 bet to get a $20 free bet? How about at the $10 level?

    Really the only sport I'm into is football and anything else would just be a guess. Should I try for Diamond level at Caesars? I don't know if enough promotion play will be offered before the end of the year to make it, but I can just play if it will be worth it to get Diamond.

  2. #2


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    So, FIND OUT if it's just a single $100 wager, or if you can make multiple ones. Stop guessing at what it is. If multiple, then make a series of $5 bets to reduce the variance. If you bet the single $100, you're going to win or lose the whole amount, so there's a lot of risk. If you make 20 $5 bets, you aren't going to lose all 20 of them (no matter how hard you try!).

    Second, if you make the wager(s) at blackjack, you're talking about -0.5% EV on $100, or 50 cents, so, OF COURSE that's worth getting $10 a month, if not $20, later. Surely, you can figure this out yourself, no?

    Finally, are all of these 50 cents and $10 a month really exciting to you?

    Don

  3. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Midwest
    Posts
    56


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I'm presently at the Platinum Tier with Caesars Rewards. I'm suppose to get a $10 free bet every month, but I have only received it a couple of times, and was wondering why I wasn't getting it every month. Then I discovered the fine print which says: for Monthly Free Bet, must have placed at least $100 cash wager which settles during the previous calendar month. I don't know if this requires at least a $100 bet or if it can be several bets that total $100.

    Now I'm less than $26,000 away in play to make it to Diamond at Caesars and then I will get a $20 free bet each month, but you still have to make a $100 wager. So is it worth it to make a $100 bet to get a $20 free bet? How about at the $10 level?

    Really the only sport I'm into is football and anything else would just be a guess. Should I try for Diamond level at Caesars? I don't know if enough promotion play will be offered before the end of the year to make it, but I can just play if it will be worth it to get Diamond.


    It can be broken up in smaller bet's, does not have to be a single $100.00 bet

  4. #4


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Good. Make 20 $5 bets and hope to get lucky. Earn the 10 bucks.

    Don

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    SPeaking of bet's, Don, you haven't been the spelling/grammar police for quite a while. Retired from that sideline?

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Just go collect soda pop bottles. You'll make more money with zero risk.
    Last edited by ShipTheCookies; 11-17-2022 at 06:21 AM.

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    So, FIND OUT if it's just a single $100 wager, or if you can make multiple ones. Stop guessing at what it is. If multiple, then make a series of $5 bets to reduce the variance. If you bet the single $100, you're going to win or lose the whole amount, so there's a lot of risk. If you make 20 $5 bets, you aren't going to lose all 20 of them (no matter how hard you try!).

    Second, if you make the wager(s) at blackjack, you're talking about -0.5% EV on $100, or 50 cents, so, OF COURSE that's worth getting $10 a month, if not $20, later. Surely, you can figure this out yourself, no?

    Finally, are all of these 50 cents and $10 a month really exciting to you?

    Don
    Okay, I did call them and the $100 bet can be broken up into smaller bets as long as they total $100. From what you written above you seem to imply the wager can be played on blackjack. It can't. To get the $10 or $20 free bet, you must make a sports bet (or several small ones) totaling $100 the month before. Not as easy to figure out if this is positive play.

    No, these small bets aren't exciting, but they do go into the pot and help. A lot of my play is on small promotions ($10 to $50 bonus) and they don't take long to complete. Since Oct 12th I played 61 promotions (or sessions) and only lost on three. Total losses during this period totaled $736, while total wins over these 60 sessions totaled slightly over $13,000. The wins ranged from $10 to $3,200 and everything in between, but mostly small wins. I excluded one extraordinary large win from these numbers because it won't likely ever happen again (I won't go into detail). However, if I quit right now for the year this will be my 3rd best year ever. My 2nd best year happened the first year I retired when I did a lot of brick and mortar blackjack play. My best year ever was last year with all online play.

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    Just go collect soda pop bottles. You'll make more more with zero risk.
    I tried that once back in my college days when 10 cents was a lot of money. Didn't find enough cans along the side of the road to even pay for my gas.

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    I tried that once back in my college days when 10 cents was a lot of money. Didn't find enough cans along the side of the road to even pay for my gas.
    That's because you live in an area with about 2 people per square mile.

  10. #10

  11. #11


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    MWP, we’ve discussed this before. You can make “zero-hold” bets on both sides of an event (like -300/+300) at zero cost to you. So, the value of the free bet becomes your EV. These odds combos are relatively easy to find with an odds finder service like OddsJam. Without that, not so much. However, you can get close. Most of these odds combos are found in alternate lines (spreads/totals). So, you could search “alternate lines” on an event in Caesars and then dig around somewhere else (DK, FD, etc) for the opposing side. To minimize your loss, your $100 you bet on Caesars should have the most negative odds. So, bet the $100 on the Caesars side and then do some easy math to figure out how much to bet on the other side to break as even as possible. Quick tip is that the TOTAL (wager plus winnings) should be equal for both sides. If you want to go for Diamond on Caesars, then do this 260 more times before the end of the year .

  12. #12


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Caesars tier levels are worth a lot less than they used to be.

  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Well, I made a $25 bet on Caesars for the Packer game today. I took the Titans at +3 @100. The Packers suck so bad this year, I figured it was a pretty good bet. I didn't even watch the game. I took a nap for a few hours. So only have $75 more to bet to get my free bet.

    I not sure if the $10 free bet is positive ev. A $100 bet @ -110 will give about $91 profit. You will lose about half the time so on average you get $95 for you $100 bet a loss of $5. The $10 free bet will average a win of about $4.50 so a loss on the deal of about 50 cents. Did I figure this right?

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Factoring FREE PLAY into RoR
    By blueman in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 26
    Last Post: 01-04-2019, 08:38 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.